Futures
(Continued from Page A 25)
shipments last week totaled 11.3
million bushels compared to 14.2
the previous week, this decline in
wheat exports is reflective of the
very competitive world market for
the grain. recent sale to
China of 1.4 million tons of wheat
for summer delivery is well below
the 2.1 million sold to China last
year at this time. However, it is
indicative of the fact that both
Russia and China will do all they
can to play the United States off
against competitive supplies like
Canada, Australia and Argentina.
One cannot expect the communists
to be aggressive buyers of wheat in
an election year especially with
prospects of lower prices as
harvest pressure continues.
LIVESTOCK
Sharply higher cut out values in
the pork complex last week
allowed some packers to operate at
a profit for the first time in many
weeks. The main contributor to
this increased profit came from
loin prices which have rallied from
95.00 in mid June to 125.00
currently.
This is very surprising con-
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sidering the heavy supply of
alternative pork products in
storage and the fact that hog
slaughter has risen occasionally
above the 3000,000 mark again.
Market analysts however expect
the kill to return to the 290,000 area
which should maintain the firm
tone to the cash hog market. The
real drag on the hog complex has
been the pork bellies. We are now
seeing a true inversion with cash
prices strongly above the futures
currently cash at 61.00 and
futures at 57.00. This is not the case
in the live hog market where cash
and futures are at a parity both
trading about 55.00.
Some analysts have noticed the
seasonal increase in sow
marketings and that producers
were at best holding their herd
levels even. However, as grain
prices continue to weaken, one
would expect that sow breeding
would expand to fill the currently
available farrowing facilities.
As in the pork complex, cash
cattle and dressed beef prices have
remained fairly strong this week.
This can be attributed to the short
supply of high quality animals in
both the plains and especially in
the com belt. Supplies of “good”
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cattle are plentiful and some
analysts believe that the new bids
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program will adequately keep
those supples in line and support
current prices. It is encouraging
that prices from Choice Yield
Grade 3 carcasses have main
tained a firm tone having moved
above the 100.00 mark with no
signs of slacking off.
It is interesting to note that the
livestock complex which to some
extent has been more immune to
foreign competition than grains, is
now feeling some heat from our
neighbor to the north. Due to an
attractive Canadian government
support program for hogs, and a
steadily weakening Canadian
dollar, hog exports from Canada to
the U.S. has dramatically in
creased. This is of great concern to
hog feeders both in the midwest
and the east.
U.S. imports of live hogs have
sharply increased in the first
quarter of 1984 28.1 million
pounds compared to 10.4 million
pounds at this time last year and
4.7 million pounds in the first
quarter of 1979. Without some
relief from this heavy importation,
domestic hog prices will continue
to feel pressure in the cash market.
m
123
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