Look into Futures
THOMSON MCKINNON SECURITIES INC.
GRAINS Grain markets this
week began showing nervousness
reminiscent of last summer’s
volatile trading. The short term
trend is up, but conflicting fun
damentals have made the recent
price rise subject to a sharp
correction.
Rumors about bad weather and
possible export restrictions in
Brazil and fears that soybean
carry out will fall short of crushed
demand have fueled rallies of July
beans about the 8.70 level.
While crush rates usually drop
off by July, traders are concerned
that current shortages of oil could
keep crush high. The heavy April -
May export tender period is now
over and large South American
supplies are beginning to reach the
market. It remains to be seen if
South American beans will be
enough to cool this hot market.
Provided the Brazilian’s do not
cut off exports altogether and the
dollar remains strong, soybean
demand could be restrained this
summer. However, the tight
supply situation and late plantings
are setting the stage for an ex
citing summer.
July com has rallied back
toward 3.50 due to strong Chicago
cash markets. Near term fun
damentals are mixed. Exports will
probably tail off through June and
further gains should be limited by
the lack of tenders and weak
foreign currencies. However, com
planted after May 15 (over 50% of
this year’s crop), is subject to yield
limitation because of summer
heat.
Wheat has shown surprising
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strength this week. Rumors of
wheat problems in Russia and
tight deliverable supplies at export
terminals are lending support. We
are told that large commercial
elevators have bought futures in
anticipation of possible increased
export activity.
Many traders expect July beans
to trade between 3.40 and 3.55 until
export demand and U.S. crop
progress is better known.
Hedgers are expected to take
advantage of rallies to lock in
prices for the new crop.
LIVESTOCK After
discounting a lot of bad news, live
cattle futures appear ready to turn
upward. Recent advances in
feeder cattle are promising as
feeders tend to lead the beef.
Traders are looking for June
cattle above 67.00 to get con
firmation of the turn around. The
most recent Cattle On Feed Report
showed that we have moved a
great deal of beef through market
channels recently.
Feedlots are current, packers
are in the black and so long as the
retail market maintains its
seasonal firming trend, a summer
rally is expected soon.
Hogs appear even more
promising. Commercial packers
continue to buy cash bellies at
around 10.00 discount to July
futures. By putting a short hedge
on in July futures, they expect to
profit from that spread narrowing.
Many hog traders are looking for
steady Peoria prices of 50.50 or
better to signal a turn around.
However, with grain farmers busy
planting, hog slaughter could be
artificially low. Short term, they
are expect to go under 300,000.
The key, of course, is retail pork
and how well consumers take the
higher prices. With packers in the
red, they will not be aggressive
buyers.
HARRISBURG - Public
comment on additions or deletions
of weed types to the Pennsylvania
Noxious Weed Control Act of 1982
will be accepted at the Tuesday
meeting of the Noxious Weed
< i
Berks cowboy ropes hefty Holstein
Berks County cowboy Dennis Mays, R 1 Leesport, is getting himself and hisQuar
terhorse stallion, "Thunder Bar," ready for the rodeo show circuit.
And what better way to practice roping than to throw a loop over the biggest cow in
town. This hefty Holstein stands in front of the new Turkey Hill Minit Market in Leesport
and attracts quite a bit of attention along Rt. 61 even when it isn't being roped.
Mays operates a boarding stable and Quarterhorse breeding farm on the outskirts of
Lieesport, in addition to cropping some 200 acres. "Thunder Bar” and Mays, of “Just
Acres” will soon be chasing and roping the smaller but more elusive variety of livestock.
Noxious weed unit to meet
feSES
Hog expansion is still limited as
farmers await better grain sup
plies. Last year’s drought is fresh
in their minds and grain prices
should not decline much before
fall.
Most market anylists expect hog
Committee, according to state
Agriculture Secretary Penrose
Hallowell.
“The committee is setting aside
time strictly for public comment
concerning what flora should be
included or deleted from the
present list of noxious weeds in
Pennsylvania,” said Hallowell,
noting that five forms of plantlife
currently comprise the list. They
include multiflora rose, Canadian
thistle, chicory, marijuana and
Johnsongrass.
The meeting will be conducted at
‘>■3o a.m. in Room 309 of the
Lancaster Farming, Saturday, May 19,1984—A37
expansion to begin once farmers
can lock in profitable selling prices
and continue as an adequate grain
crop becomes apparant. Watching
the futures prices in grain and
livestock should give a good in
dication of price trends.
Agriculture Building, 2301 North
Cameron Street, Harrisburg.
Members of the Noxious Weed
Committee include: Secretary
Hallo we 11; Department of En
vironmental Resources Secretary
Nicholas. Benedictis; Penn
sylvania Game Commission
Director Peter Duncan; Rep.
Samuel Morris, chairman of the
House Agriculture Committee;
and Sen. Edward Helfrick,
chairman of the Senate
Agriculture and Rural Affairs
Committee.