NEWARK, Del. Employment
grew about half as fast during the
1970 s in the Northeast as it did in
the rest of the nation, according to
a recent University of Delaware
Agricultural Experiment Station
study. Steven E. Hastings, the
specialist in resource economics
and rural development who
supervised the study, says it’s too
soon to tell whether the trend has
continued into the ’Bos. Job growth
rate is one measure of economic
growth.
“Our objective was to compare
employment growth in the Nor
theast with the U.S. as a whole to
get an idea of how, during the
19705, this region and the states
within it fared relative to the rest
of the country,” Hastings says.
The study was done as a master’s
thesis by Jeffrey White, former
graduate assistant in the depart
ment of agricultural and food
economics. White’s manuscript is
now being prepared for publication
as an Experiment Station bulletin.
His analysis showed that bet
ween 1970 and 1979, jobs increased
in the Northwest by only 9.6 per
cent compared to the 22.47 percent
national average. Each of the
three subregions in the Northeast
also had a poorer record.
Mid-Atlantic Is law
Employment grew by 15 percent
in New England (Connecticut,
Maine, Massachusetts, New
Hampshire, Rhode Island and
Vermont), and by 4.39 percent in
the Middle Atlantic states (New
Jersey, New York and Penn
sylvania). With an increase of 20.25
percent, the southern Middle
Atlantic area (Delaware,
mnMWi
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NE had poor job growth in 9 70 s
Washington, D.C., Maryland,
Virginia and West Virginia) was
the only subregion to approach the
national average.
Of all the northeastern states,
only New Hampshire (37.47 per
cent) and Virginia (26.74 percent)
and greater employement growth
than the U.S. average. One state,
New York, actually suffered a very
slight decline.
How did Delaware fare? With an
employment growth rate of 13.73
percent, it ranked higher than the
Northeast as a whole, but still fell
well below the rest of the nation.
According to Hastings, these
employment figures parallel
national population trends during
the same decade. For example, in
the 1970 s population grew much
more in the West and South than in
the Northeast or North Central
U.S. It also grew much faster in
rural than in urban areas.
Data used in the study were
collected by the federal Bureau of
Economic Analysis and included
all types of jobs.
Service growth
“Service-type industries con
tributed the most to employment
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growth in the Northeast,” Hastings
says. “For years, manufacturing
was the primary source of jobs in
this region, but over the last couple
of decades, services have emerged
as a greater source of growth.”
As in other parts of the country,
there were more new rural than
urban jobs m the region
reflecting the exodus from cities
which characterized the decade.
“It’s interesting to note that
preliminary analysis of recent
population trends indicates that
rural growth may have been just a
one decade occurrence,” the
economist says. “But that hasn’t
been fully documented yet.” One
point to remember is that much of
the population growth in the South
and West during the 1970 s occurred
in rural areas.
Though the University of
Delaware study indicates the
Northeast did not keep pace with
sm
R. LAMAR HACKMAN
R.D 2
Miflhnburg, PA 17844
DISTRICT
REPRESENTATIVE
the rest of the country in overall
employment growth between 1970
and 1979, Hastings says some in
dividual industries obviously did
better than others.
Also, though the Northeast had a
poorer record than other parts of
the country over the last decade,
there’s no guarantee these trends
will continue. “The region might
do very well this time around,” he
says. Another point to remember is
that in this analysis we made no
attempt to explain why these
trends occurred. We simply
reported them.”
Rural development
The study was conducted as part
of a long-term Agricultural Ex
periment Station research project
aimed at evaluating factors which
affect economic development in
rural areas of Delaware. Ac
cording to Hastings, the main
value of such research is that it
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provides policymakers, analysts
and others with insight into what
has occurred in the past and so
indicates potential future
problems.
“Obviously, if you could argue
that ,hese trends would continue,
the Northeast would have some
real problems in terms of future
employment,” the economist says.
“And such findings are likely to
generate additional studies to
explain why firms might locate in
the South and the West rather than
in the Northeast.”
“Anybody concerned about
general trends in the individual
northeastern states or the region
relative to the rest of the U.S.
would find the bulletin useful, since
what’s happened in the past often
gives some indication of what’s
likely to occur in the future.” The
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