C2—UncMtarFarmhig, Saturday, March 24, 1984
Look into Futures
THOMSON MCKINNON SECURITIES INC.
Tuesday, March 20;
'Grains
Light stocks will continue to give
underlying strength to the grain
markets. Shortages of quality com
persist and any further export
activity will make §2 com even
scarcer. PQC com movement has
not pressured the market as many
analyists had forecasted. Recent
deliveries against the March
futures contract have gone into
“strong hands” and that absence
of re-delivery has been supportive.
The market has moved through
recent chart resistance points
346 basis the May. Having Traded
several days above that ooint. the
former resistance now becomes
support.
However, both technical in
dicators and “contrary open
numbers” indicate an over-bought
condition in com. Some believe we
are due for some set back in the
nearby contracts; but this will not
overshadow the underlying
fullish fundamentals in com.
An ever present damper on corn
prices will, of course, be wheat
feeding both domestic and
foreign. South Africa’s recent split
purchase of one million metric tons
each of Australian feed wheat and
American corn are a clear
reminder that world stocks of
wheat are burdensome and
Sf Fertilizer... Bag or Bulk!
SPECIAL ANALYSIS
8-24-8 CORN SPECIAL
0-10-30 ALFALFA SPECIAL
8-8-24 TOBACCO
8-16-24 TOBACCO
4-8-12 TOBACCO
REGULAR ANALYSIS
10-20-20 15-30-15
20-10-10 10-10-10
15-15-15
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displacement of com will continue
until normal price relationships
again prevail.
Ironically, despite the long term
wheat supply situation, short term
supplies are tight. Wheat stocks in
Chicago are 9.0 million bushels vs.
18.7 million bushels last year.
Wheat basis nationally remains
relatively strong and this will
most likely continue until new crop
supplies hit the market.
Tuesday afternoon, March 20,
soybeans made dramatic moves to
the upside. Led by heavy demand
for soybean oil and indications of a
small Brazilian crop, made benas
strongly moved through the eight
dollar resistance settling at
8.0750. The next price objective is a
chart gap at 8.25.
Soybean exports were disap
pointing this week 14.8 million
bushels, 30% below trade ex
pectations, but above the 11
million bushels per week needed to
reach the USDA export forecast
for 1983-84. If meal demand
remains poor worldwide, exports
could strongly favor just oil vs.
whole beans, creating large
domestic meal stocks and lower
prices.
As of this writing, secretary of
Agriculture John Block remains
adament that the 1984 wheat
5-10-10
10-6-4
program not be reviewed without
assessing the seed grains also.
There are indications that
Representative Heflin, who earlier
blocked passage of amendments to
the bill, supposedly has reached an
agreement with the ad
ministration. We will have to wait
for final outcome on these
deliberations.
This week’s major fundamental
report was the Hogs & Pigs
Quarterly Report from USDA.
Direction in both hog and cattle
prices may be found from
Tuesday’s numbers. In general,
the report was neutral to bearish
for nearby contracts. Bullish for
deferreds.
Inventories in the group 120 to
179 lbs. were 1% above last year;
over 180 lbs., 6% above. This could
put some pressure on both nearby
hog and cattle contracts but many
of the animals in the over 180 group
are already in the market chan
nels. The April contract remains
on a strong up trend from recent
loss of $44.00 cwt. The most bullish
aspects of the report were the
farrowing intentions. Kept for
breeding numbers (90%) were
almost 4% below trade ex
pectations and intentions
(March/May 89% and
June/August 87% of last year)
were 2.3 and 5.5% below trade
expectations.
These numbers should be very
friendly to distant contracts (Oct.
& Dec.) and spreads between
nearby and deferred contracts
may widen accordingly. Cattle to
some extent will follow suit.
The recently bullishly construed
Cattle On Feed Report has done
little to sustain the rally in that
market. After recent high, above
$72.00 cwt basis the April, this
contract has settled back to sup
port in the $70.00 vicinity.
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'I".
.Or"
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Pre-emergence Banvel tank mixed with ‘ Lasso' to get broadleaf
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weeds germinate
Early layby (in corn up to five inches high) use Banvel at a one
pint rate Stop weeds before they ve had a chance to develop
This Banvel overlay controls cocklebur sunflower annual
morningglory other troublemakers
Post-emergence (corn up to 36 inches) Banvel herbicide
controls the real problems —like smart
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Banvel
Box beef intentions are bur- cattle feeders will be scared to
densome not having moved keep cattle on expensive feed for
much above $107.00 cwt. But with long periods of time,
cattle feedlots very current and As of this writing early Wed
weather problems adding to the nesday morning, nearby contracts
shortage of quality slaughter in hogs are up slightly and
cattle, these markets are poten- deferreds are up the $1.50 limit,
tially poised for a rally. Nearby cattle prices are still under
As long as there are discounts in pressure, but deferred contracts
the June and August contracts, appear to show more strength.
Johnson re-elected
ADA/DC president
SYRACUSE, NY - Raymond
Johnson, a dairy farmer from
Schaghticoke, New York has been
re-elected president of the
American Dairy Association and
Dairy Council. The election took
place as part of AD A/DC’s 24th
Annual Meeting, March 13-14 in
Syracuse.
Over 300 dairy farmers and
industry leaders from New York,
New Jersey and Pennsylvania
attended the meeting to learn more
about their milk promotion
program. The highlight of the
event was the presentation of the
new “Milk’s Got More” ad
vertising theme. This campaign,
currently running on radio and
television, highlights the
nutritional benefits of milk as
compared to the empty calories of
competitive beverages.
A by-laws change was approved,
allowing for the consolidation of
the following three boards of
directors: American Dairy
Association and Dairy Council;
Dairy, Food and Nutrition Council;
and Dairy Council of Metro New
York. The presidents of the latter
two boards will now serve as
second vice presidents. They are S.
Robert Conrad from Bell Mead, NJ
and Pans Ives from Bambridge,
NY.
INC.
Also re-elected as officers were;
Allen Ostrander, Vice President
from Theresa, NY; Eugene Brace,
secretary from West Winfield, NY;
and Paul Fishel, treasurer from
Ogdensburg, New York. They will
serve one-year terms.
The American Dairy Association
and Dairy Council is a producer
funded and directed milk
promotion agency serving New
York, New Jersey and Penn
sylvania.
Warren buys
Angus bred
Highest selling bred heifer at the
Pennsylvania “Angus On Parade”
Sale held March 9, at the Farm
Show Building, was PS Elegant
220, a Power Play daughter pur
chased by Warren Angus, of
Furlong.
Consigned by Penn State, the
two-year-old was sold, with her
heifer calf by Premier Progressor,
for $1900.00
FERTILIZER MATERIALS
BAG OR BULK
AMMONIUM NITRATE SSV'z-O-O
AMMONIUM SULFATE (G) 21-0-0
BLUE CHIP (NITROFORM) 38-0-0
BORON 10% (G)
BORON B-12 WATER SOLUBLE
CALCIUM NITRATE 19% C
15‘/2%N
DAP (DIAMMONIUM) 18-46-0
IRON 40% (G)
K-MAG (225-18MGO-22K2 O)
MAP (MONOAMMONIUM) 11-52-0
MICRO-MIX (G)
MG-58 (MGO 96%)
MURIATE OF POTASH
NITRATE OF SODA
NITRATE OF SODA
POTASH
NITROGEN SOLUTION
POTASSIUM NITRATE
ROCK PHOSPHATE
31% P*ob 32% CA
SULPHUR COATED UREA 36-0-0
SULPHUR9O%
SUPER PHOSPHATE
SULFATE OF POTASH
TRIPLE PHOSPHATE
UREA (GRANULAR)
UREA (PRILLED)
ZINC 20% (G)
heifer
m
/ FERTIIIKH /
0-0-60
15-0-0
15-0-14
30-0-0
13-0-44
0-20-0
0-0-50
0-46-0
46-0-0
46-0-0