Cattle Feeder’s Day
(Continued from Page Al)
due to the weather and less
featuring will be the cause for this,
Henning said.
Prices during the third quarter
should remain in the mid 60’s with
a strong pork and poultry industry
sharing the market. The fourth
quarter is “anyone’s guess,”
Henning said and will depend on
the year’s com crop.
In making his prediction for 1964,
Henning shared with the more than
150 cattleman' attending the
seminar the supply and demand
factors which influence the cattle
and grain markets. Demand
Penn State Extension beef specialist Les Burdette, left,
moderates a panel discussion on ag bagging with, from 16ft,
Bob Kreider, Lancaster; Dervin Hart, Manheim; and John
Zimmerman, Ephrata, participating.
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factors he cited were disposable
personal income, disposable in
come spent on red meat, the
general economy, the wholesale
retail price spread, retail ad
vertising and featuring and
transfer payments.
Disposable personal income is
up by more than .9 percent,
Henning said, while that part spent
on red meat (lamb, beef and pork)
is the lowest in years. This is a
concern for cattleman, he said, but
with increased promotion of beef
through the National Cattleman’s
Association, this problem can be
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Lancaster Cattle Feeder’s Day, shows his sons, from left,
Glendon. 10; Winfred, 11; and Anthony, 5; a quality sample of
haylage.
The general economy, with
unemployment at 8.2 percent and
interest rates steady to
decreasing, tends to be positive,
Henning said. This he attributes to
1984 being a “funny season,” a
term-used by Penn State economist
Lou Moore.
“It’s election year and things
tend to look rosy and fairly positive
and good,” Henning said.
The wholesale to retail price
spread is much lower and
movement is slower, Henning
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Lancaster Farming, Saturday, January 28,1984-A27
added. As the farm to retail
margin narrows, retailers spend
less on advertising, but this
shouldn’t hurt cattleman.
“Retail advertising and features
were sharply curtailed in the last
few months because of a big in
crease m retail beef prices,”
Henning said. “Even without that
advertising, there should be strong
prices throughout the year.”
On the supply side of his
prediction, Henning said the cow
calf inventory appears to be down
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about one to two percent. The
cattle on feed numbers are also
down about four percent.
Total red meat production
stands at an increase in poultry, a
decrease in pork, and an increase
in dressed beef weights, Henning
said. Currently, dressed weights
on cattle are down, he said.
As far as grains are concerned,
Henning said that 1984 prices for
'com will be wild. “I’m not sure
anyone can outguess grain prices
for this year,” he said.
A carryover of com is estimated
at 595 million bushels and soybean
at 185 million bushels.
Otheij factors which will affect
cattle prices include market
psychology, price trends and
cycles and government actions.
A recent government action that
brought criticism from cattle
producers was the passing of the
dairy compromise bill. According
to Henning, cattleman “won’t see
much of an effect of the dairy
program on beef markets. ”
“The government is looking at
two, five or 10 percent par
ticipation by dairy farmers,” he
said. “Realistically, we can’t be
looking at much more than five
percent or 500,000 cows. ”
Also speaking at the Cattle
Feeder’s Day were Dr. Tom
Drake, Penn State Extension
veterinarian, who gave a
veterinarian update; Les Bur
dette, Penn State Extension beef
specialist, on alternative feed
stuffs and an implanting update;
and J. Paul Espy, cattle feeder and
Pa. Beef Council president, whose
topic was “Be An Efficient Cattle
Feeder.”
A panel group with Dervm Hart,
of Manheim, John Zimmerman, of
Ephrata, and Bob Kreider, of
Lancaster, participating,
discussed hay and silage bagging.
Burdette
discussion.
moderated
In addition to the speakers, area
cattleman were able to look over
displays provided by commercial
exhibitors.
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