A3>—Uncattf Farming, Saturday, November 26,1983
Worst drought
(Continued from Page A 28)
low quality. Their expenses may
not have risen this year, but this is
of little consolation. Receipts
probably will not cover expenses
and careful financial management
will be needed to see them through
to the next harvest.
As is always the situation, even
in the worst droughts, some far
mers are lucky enough to have
fairly good yields. The drought did
not hit the northern Com Belt as
hard and moisture conditions were
generally good in the West this
summer. For many farmers in
these areas, production will be
large at a time when crop prices
are high and expenses moderate.
Financial planning for such far
mers will be a pleasure. Decisions
will center around machinery
purchases, timing of marketing
and the best mix of crops to grow in
1964.
The vast majority of farmers
who grow the major field crops
feed grains, oilseeds, and cotton
participated in acreage limitation
programs this year. Most have
experienced low yields and will
have substantially reduced output,
but government programs will
bolster incomes. Although wheat
prices are only a little higher,
winter wheat yields were very high
and will help to boost income for
wheat farmers.
Farmers who idled their entire
base acreage fared the best. Their
expenses were sharply lower and
they will receive 80 to 95 percent of
their normal yield on acreage
included in the PIK program. They
have crops to sell or feed to
livestock.
Consumers are Concerned
Consumers are concerned about
food supplies and possible price
increases as a result of the short
crops. The mix of foods will change
some and prices will be
moderately higher, but there will
continue to be large supplies.
Wheat, a staple in the U.S. diet,
is very available along with dairy
products. Citrus fruit production
should be very large in the months
ahead, barring a severe freeze this
winter in Florida or the Southwest.
Although the availability of many
fruits and vegetables for
processing is lower this year, large
existing stocks will offset
production declines and supplies
will be adequate for expected
needs. A few items such as canned
peaches, tart cherries, dry beans,
and sweet potatoes will be in short
supply and prices of these products
will be higher.
The reduced output of feed
grains and oilseeds is changing
livestock and poultry production
plans. As mentioned earlier, meat
supplies this fall and winter likely
will be larger than if the drought
and acreage reduction program
had not increased feed costs. In the
second half of next year, red meat
production win taper off and drop
below the high output levels of
1983. Meat prices will increase as
supplies diminish while consumer
incomes and demand rise.
However, broiler production will
likely step up to take advantage of
reduced fed-beef and pork sup
plies.
All in all, large food supplies will
Drought’s role
(Continued from Page Al 2)
1980 droughts. Both droughts
followed record crop years. In
1973, a record crop year, food
prices rose 14.5 percent; in 1974,
the drought year, they rose 14.4
percent; and in 1975, the year when
the farm price effects of the
drought should have shown up at
retail, food prices rose only 8.5
percent.
The pattern is similar for the
1980 drought. In 1979, a record crop
year, food prices climbed 10.9
percent; in 1900, a drought year,
they rose 8.6 percent; and in 1961,
the year following the drought,
they were up only 7.9 percent.
Higher Next Year
Of course, this doesn’t mean that
1964’s food price rise will be lower
than this year’s rise. All it in
dicates is that farm prices are only
continue, especially during the
holiday season when large
amounts of both hams and turkeys
will be available. Retail food
prices are estimated to rise 2 to 3
percent this year, much less than
the prices of most other goods and
services. Next year, food prices
will rise somewhat faster, perhaps
4 to 7 percent. Increases will be
sharper in the second half of the
year.
Look to Next Year
It will take a year or two for the
full impact of the 1983 drought to
work its way through the
marketing system. The ad
justment for farmers, wholesalers,
and consumers will be moderated
because large stocks of many
commodities will absorb much of
the blow from reduced prodution.
If bad weather continues this fall
and into 1984, the impacts would be
much worse. Most of the huge
stock piles of feed grains and’
oilseeds will be marketed before
next year’s harvest, although
wheat and cotton stocks in storage
will remain large. Another drought
in 1984 would certainly lead to
sharply higher food prices and
some hard choices by policy of
ficials.
one component and usually not
the major one—in the food price
picture. General inflation in the
economy and its effect on wages
and other processing and
marketing costs are far more
important.
For this very reason, food price
rises are expected to be higher
next year. Recovery in the
economy suggests a somewhat
higher inflation rate along with
rising processing and marketing
costs. These costs make up about
70 percent of retail food prices.
Even this new isn’t all bad. The
inflation rate will remain
relatively low and food price rises
are unlikely to exceed it. No one
currently expects 1964 to bring a
return to the annual food price
increases of 8-11 percent ex
perienced between 1978 and 1981.
THEKIMWOOD
FARM
COMPLETE
DISPERSAL
SAT. DEC. 10,1983
at ll:OOA.M.
On Asbury Road, 2 miles southeast of
Leßoy, New York, just off Route 5.
SELLING: This fine herd of 120 top quality
Registered Holstein Dairy Cattle featuring:
JEWEL PAT “EX-96” “2E” Reserve All-
American Aged Cow 1978,15 t 100,000 lb. cow at
the New York State Show 1981 and 2nd Aged
Cow and Best Udder at the Central National
1978. Her records to 8-11365 30,839 3.81159; her
dam is “2E-92” with over 24000 milk and over
1,055 fat; 2nd dam is “4E-95” “Gold Medal
Dam” with over 26,000 milk and over 1,239 fat.
ALSO Featuring: 11 Cows with Index’s over
+l,OOO and 21 Cows with Index’s over +9OO.
Plus many more high quality cattle with depth
of pedigree, classification, and high production
andbutterfat.
Sires Represented: Elevation, Bootmaker,
Valiant, Glen Valley Star, and others, plus a
good group of calves and heifers sired by Pete,
Tony, Valiant, Sexation, Bell, Mars, Tempo,
Matt, Glendell, Virginian, Apache, Cavalier
and R Maple.
Don’t Miss This Golden Opportnnlty
to purchase a deep-pedigreed
Registered Holstein
Owner
Erinwood Farm
Leßoy, NY
Ph. 716-768-2277
or 243-4644
SALE MANAGER AND AUCTIONEER
WILLIAM KENT, INC.
BERGEN, NY Ph. 716-494-1890
Top Acres Notable Stanza ET, maternal sister to the
Sterling bull, sold for $15,000 to A&G Swiss Farm of lowa,
represented by Karen and John Gipp. The contending bidder
was a syndicate of 27 people across the nation Represented
by Richard Stephens of Manliers, New York (right). At the
halter is Dean Daubert of Pine Grove.
National. Isabel sold to A. Morino
of Columbia, South America.
The final 110,000 seller will make
her new home with the Calvin
Wilson family of Kimberton,
Pennsylvania.
This bred heifer was consigned
by Landon Leitzke of West Bend,
Wisconsin. E-One S. Jim Julette
(Continued from Page Al)
the quarantine zone. But a disease
problem in a flock there has been
diagnosed as a mild strain of New
Castle disease.
On Thursday, the task force took
a one-day break from the
eradication program to clean
equipment and a holiday gathering
of sorts at Lancaster’s Treadway
JOHN J. SULLIVAN,
Brown Swiss Sale
(Continued from Page A 36)
Avian effort
yru/
STABLES
WEDNESDAY, NOV. 30TH
One Load of Outstanding Pure Bred
Holstein Dairy Cows with Official
Records. Several Cows Classified Very
Good From Top Sires. Fresh and Close
Springers.
Consigned by
H.D. MATZ
PUBLIC AUCTION
FARM MACHINERY, 3 TRACTORS,
IH COMBINE, ETC.
on farm 18 miles E. of Hughesville, Pa. Vi
mile E of 118 & 42 junction off Rt. 118.
Watch For Auction Arrows.
SAT. DEC. 3 starting 1 PM
Ford 8600 diesel tractor; JD 620 G RC tractor
w/15.5-38” rubber; Farmall M gas. RC tractor;
IH 203 S.P. gas combine w/2 row wide com &
13’ grain heads; Miller 10’ offset disc w/hyd.
leveling & dual transport wheels; Talorway 10’
trailer chisel plow; IH 510 17-7 dbl. disc grain
drill; JD 494 4 row com planter; IH 435 pto
baler w/pto thrower; Nl4OO roto-bar rake; Fox
Super 2000 forage harvester w/pickup head;
Kools K 854 short hopper blower; NH 5198
single beater manure spreader; 3 metal
gravity boxes-Martin, Newbuilt, McCurdy,
Zimmerman 40’ all-purpose elevator; Sears
chassis.
And. Note: This is all-no small items, be on
time.
Owners,
RALPH A PHYLLIS DIETTERICK
Conducted by
Fraley Auction Co.
(717) 546-6907
was named All-American Heifer
Calf in 1962 and was named Junior
Champion of the 1963 Central
National Show. She is sired by
Alexander Alaric Stretch Jim.
A “standing room only” crowd
packed the Lebanon Fair building
to watch the sale of some of the top
Brown Swiss cattle in the nation.
Inn. Some relatives and family
members of the task force per
sonnel came to Lancaster.
Dr. Gerald Fichtner, who heads
up the task force, told the gathered
group:
“We have established a goal. We
aren’t going to just control Avian
influenza. We are going to
eradicate it.”