A 21—Lancaster Fanning, Saturday, November 26,113
Worst drought
(Continued from Page A 27)
stocks were the result of a
lackluster, at best, domestic and
foreign demand in recent years.
Worldwide economic recession has
slowed the demand for
agricultural products.
The buildup in stocks will help
offset the impact of sharply
reduced feed grain and soybean
crops. This fall, without the 3.4
billion bushels of corn and the 387
million bushels of soybeans on
hand, farm prices would be higher
and domestic use and exports
would likely fall until new crops
were harvested in 1984. Even so,
adjustments for some users will be
substantial. The increase in feed
costs has altered livestock and
poultry production prospects.
While the recent strength in the
general economy is helping to
boost consumer demand for meat,
production cost increases for
cattle, hog, and poultry producers
will squeeze profits.
Higher slaughters
Cattle feeders have bid down
feeder cattle prices in an attempt
to reduce costs. Placements on
feed in August fell 10 percent below
a year earlier, and feeder pig
prices are less than half of what
they were a year ago. Some cattle
that would have been put on feed
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this fall and winter, if feed costs
had remained low, are being sent
to slaughter directly off grass. The
movement to slaughter will be
large, if pasture conditions in the
eastern half of the country are not
revived by fall rains. Lower feeder
cattle prices will force some
producers to cull cow herds more
severely this year because the cost
of carrying animals through the
winter will be high compared with
the returns that are likely from
raising a calf crop next spring.
Extra sows and some gilts that,
more normal conditions,
would have been held for breeding
purposes will be slaughtered this
fall and winter. The recent USDA
Hogs and Pigs report indicates
that farmers are reducing 1984
early spring farrowings by 1
percent. Thus, meat supplies in the
months ahead will be augmented
somewhat by sales of some of the
breeding stock. The extent of the
increase in slaughter will depend
on both the strengthening of meat
demand and in feed costs. Perhaps
beef and pork production will be 1
percent higher through the winter
than if feed costs had gone up
much slower.
Later in 1984, meat supplies will
decline. Fewer cattle will be put on
feed and the number of pigs born
will decline. However, while
profits of broiler producers will be
squeezed until at least late winter,
broiler producers are likely to
increase production and partly
offset reduced red meat supplies in
the second half of next year.
Farm Income Varies Widely
Farm incomes are rising this
Corn Yields: How Low Will They Go?
1973 74 75 76
jti^WRAPUP
P?» A GREAT DEAL.
HONDALINE
year. The current estimate in
dicates that net income will be at
the low end of the pre-drought
forecast of $25 to |29 billion, up
from the $22 billion in 1982. But
these figures do not begin to in
dicate the wide variation in the
incomes of individual farmers.
Obviously, the farmers not sharing
i * 575
:srxrrt m
*598
WIN THESE PRIZESI
in the income improvement are
those who were hardest hit by the
drought, did not participate in
acreage limitation programs, and
who also did not buy crop in
surance. While crop prices have
risen, these farmers have little to
sell and much of their harvest is of
(Turn to Page A3B)
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