Al2—Lancaster Farming, Saturday, November 26,1983
Drought’s role may be small at grocery checkout
WASHINGTON, D.C. - For
most consumers far from the
farm, the impact of the 1963
drought will be measured at the
grocery store. In the process, the
drought may get more blame than
it deserves.
In the first place, the drought’s
impact on food prices may come a
>it later and may end up to be
lomewhat smaller than consumers
might expect. Beyond that, it will
be difficult impossible from the
checkout counter to clearly
separate the drought’s impact
from the many other factors that
keep food prices rising each year,
regardless of harvests.
USDA analysts looking at the
consumer aid of the agricultural
outlook will sharpen their
forecasts when they get a better
picture of this year’s crop damage.
Even at this point, however, it’s
fairly evident that fears of massive
food price runups or shortages are
out of tune with the facts.
Affect meat later
For example, the drought had
little or no impact on most fruits
and vegetables, and it provided
good weather for the winter wheat
harvest this summer. Wheat
supplies will remain close to
record levels throughout the
1963/84 crop year.
Aside from relatively minor food
items such as sweet com, withered
corn and soybean harvests will
affect consumers almost ex
clusively through meats and
poultry, especially beef. Higher
feed costs and shrinking margins
for producers will probably mean
some reduction in meat supplies,
and higher meat prices, in the last
half of 1984 and into 1965.
In the meantime, producers are
expected to respond to reduced
returns by sending more animals
to slaughter this fall and winter.
Hie result: increased meat sup
plies and very little upward
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Retail Food Price Rites Moderated In
1982 and 1988
1973
1974
1075
1976
1977
1976
1979
1996
1991
T ' X 55
' 0 ' iv\ *r,T>i* ;,: ff;<, . vrr-& :.^ A^- - ? rt
pressure on retail prices.
Before the drought hit, analysts
had projected food prices to rise
only 2 to 4 percent this year, and
they’re now pointing to the lower
end of the range. For consumers,
that would mean the smallest
increase in 16 years.
Not Primary Role
The drought will play a role in
next year’s rising food prices, but
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Fdodstore AH food
prices prices l
percent increases
16.3% 14.6%
14,9% 14.4%
8.3% 8.6%
2.1% 3.1%
BJ&% 6,3%
10J%. iad%
100% 10,9*
jpHfc" ■ a.e% ,
* $
not the primary one. In any given
year, food prices respond to many
factors, including inflation,
domestic and foreign demand, and
stocks on hand.
For an indication of the errors
that can be made in assuming a
direct link between crop size and
food prices, consider the 1974 and
BINKLEY & HURST BROS., INC.
133 Rothsville Station Rd., Lititz, PA 17543
PH: < 717 ) 6264705
Hours: Mon.-Fri, 7 AM - 5 PM; Sat. 7 AM -11:30 AM
-k
(Turn to Page A 38)
—* Jake, something's going on at J
BINKLEY & HURST BROS! I hear you can read
all about it in the December 10th issue
Lancaster Farming T- 11 '
Farm Calendar
(Continued from Page A 10)
Show, Atlanta Civic Center,
Atlanta, Ga., continues through
Saturday.
Economic Outlook and Farm Tax
Meeting, 7:30 p.m., Union
Grove School, Terre Hill.
(Continued from Page AlO)
To Order Small
Fruit Plants Early
This may strike you as
premature, but this is a good time
to order small fruit plants for next
spring. Although you won’t put
them in the ground until April, you
should be flipping through catalogs
now. Ordering early assures you of
a wide selection of the best
rd it’s a SPECIAL INSERT
in the paper!! r
Grain Producers Marketing
Strategy, Sheraton Inn, Dover,
Del.
Farmland Protection Conference,
Cedar Eatery, Allentown, Pa.
Saturday, Dec. 3
Dairy goat meeting, 1 p.m.,
Daleville Methodist Church.
Now is
the Time
varieties. Companies begin filling
orders with their best stock...if you
delay you could be stuck with
what’s left over. Ordering early
also means you’ll get your
strawberries or blackberries or
whatever at the best time to plant.
So, dig out those catalogs
now...get your order in...and be
prepared for delicious fruit from
your planting.
I wonder
VWon’t this be
something -1 ca
r hardly wait!!
Friday, Dec. 2