D4—Lancaster Fanning, Saturday, June 18,1983
Report on PIK forecasts
CHICAGO, In a special
research report on the impact of
the U.S. Government’s Payment-
In-Kind (PIK) program, Merrill
Lynch Futures Inc. has forecast
sharply mcreased ending stocks of
wheat and feed grains for the
1983/4 season.
James A. Culver, director of
research for Merrill Lynch
Futures Inc. said, “With normal
weather, production reductions
should range from 9 percent for
soybeans to 33 percent for rice
compared to 1982/3. However,
commodity stocks are very large
and since farmers will keep their
best land in production, higher
(Continued from Page 02)
headquarters where he will un
dergo an intense preventative herd
health program before he joins 60
other bulls being sampled this
year.
Terrapin NOD-ET 1881562 is
sired by Wagnerscrest Ivanhoe
Astronaut, a genetically superior
bull with +1525m +.05% +63f
+521277%R.
His dam is Terrapin Jet Stream
1180, VGBS. She was specially
selected because of her out
standing type and production with
a top record at 3~6 365 d of 24970 m,
1164 f, a cow index of +1904m
+.00% +7of +5253. She is sired by
Arlinda Jet Stream-twin.
A young Holstein bull bred by
Mark S. Yoder. Belleville, Pa.
9H873 Sir Els Rickyside Jet
MARK 1870089 is also located at
Sire Power headquarters.
Sir Els Rockyside Jet MARK
1870089 is sired by Arlinda Jet
Stream-twin, a genetically
superior bull with +2104 -.21%
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1 ields will offset part of the
reduction in harvested area. The
PIK payments plus 1983 crop grain
will likely exceed use for wheat,
feed grains and cotton. For these
crops, ending free stocks could
increase during the coming season
and hold average farm prices near
price support floor levels.
The Merrill Lynch report also
forecast a slight decline in ending
free stocks for soybeans and a
sharp.decline for rice, from 40.4
MIL CWT to 25 MIL CWT.
Specifically, the Merrill Lynch
report forecasts:
•Wheat - Total ending free
stocks at the end of the 1983/4
Sire Power
+43f +s2l7.
His dam is Y-Brookside
Chairman Snow 108 VG(BS). She
was specially selected because of
her outstanding type and
production with a top record at 3-2
365 d of 26,518 m 1079 f, a cow index
of + 1488 m -.03% +49f +slBs. She
is sired by Cal-Clark Board
Chairman.
A young Holstein bull bred by
William Terhune, Andover, N. J.
9H871 Bi-Jo Blendell HANNON
1885018 is also located at Sire
Power headquarters.
Bi-Jo Glendell HANNON 1885018
is sired by Glendell Arlinda Chief a
genetically superior bull with
+2007m -.07% +6lf+s24l.
His dam is Bi-Jo Elevation
Heather, EX(93) 3E. She was
specially selected because of her
outstanding type and production
with a top record at 5-7 365 d of
24,851 m 1195 f, a cow index of
+99lm +.19% +6sf +sl72. She is
sired by Round Oak Rag Apple
Elevation.
NOW
higher wheat,
season are expected to more than
double, from 330 million to nearly
780 million bushels. The result will
be heavy downward pressure on
the 1983/4 average farm price.
•Feed Grains - Ending free
stocks are expected to rise from 16
mmt to 21 mmt. Corn prices are
expected to continue to decline and
go below the |2,65 loan at the farm
by late fall.
•Soybeans - If soybean yields in
1983 are the same as in 1982, stocks
at the beginning of 1983/4 should be
moderate, and ending stocks will
likely decline unless the summer
weather is unusually favorable.
Beans are expected to be the
trading market during the growing
season, rising, on reports of ad
verse weather and declining on
forecasts of better yields.
•Rice - World supplies are
relatively tight; consumption is
expected to exceed production, and
ending stocks will likely be down
from last year.
•union - Cotton will likely trade
within four pricing tiers; San
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feed grain ending stocks 'i
Joaquin Acala will trade at sub
stantial premiums to New York
Futures while “white tenderable
cotton,” which is likely to mirror
the futures market, could move
upward in response to increasing
export demand. Qualities that are
not tenderable against futures
contracts, but are eligible for CCC
loans, should trade at prices close
to the CCC loan. Unsold PIK cot
ton, probably of poor quality, will
not be eligible for CCC loans. Thus,
while 1983/4 ending stocks likely
will decline, relatively large free
stocks will hold average farm
prices within $.05 of the $.55 per
pound CCC loan.
The Merrill Lynch report
analyzes each market in-depth,
including current yield, price
predictions and variables that
could further affect these martlets,
such as weather, legislative or
administrative policies and foreign
grain purchases.
The 1983 PIK program is the
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most massive land diversion
program in the history of the
United States, offering farmers
payment for acreage reduction
with warehouse receipts for sur
plus agricultural commodities,
rather than cash. The program
was initiated with the intent of
depleting excessive surplus stocks
and reducing the decline in farm
income.
In response to the very at
tractive payment rates offered by
the PIK program, fanners have
agreed to idle nearly 83 million
acres ordinarily planted to wheat,
feed grains, cotton and rive. This is
the largest amount in history,
nearly one-third greater than the
previous peak of 63 million acres
idled in the early 19705.
This report is available, free of
charge, to the general public by
calling toll-free 1-800-MERRILL or
writing to Merrill Lynch Futures
inc., 2 Broadway, New York, N.Y.
10004.
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