Program
BY ROBIN PHILLIPS
Staff Correspondent
STATE COLLEGE - There is a
“good, solid stable, agricultural
unit in Pennsylvania,” Samuel H.
Smith, Dean of Penn State’s
College of Agriculture, assured
producers, students, researchers,
and extension personnel at the 1983
Pennsylvania Dairy and Livestock
Day on Tuesday.
Throughout the day, the concept
of “getting- better, instead of
bigger, as well as “Promotion,
Promotion, Promotion” was
stressed to ail producers in dairy,
beef, swine, or sheep.
The mam fact is, according to
Dean Smith, that no matter how
much producers “love the land,”
or “love the way of life,” they must
sell them product to stay in
business.
“The problem today is to keep
producers who are in business on a
profitable level,” Smith continued.
Producers were advised to
“tighten their belts” and follow
sound marketing and financial
plans which they must work out
according to ' their particular
operation.
Continuing the program. Dr.
Lew S. Mix, Director of Farm
Management Research and
Development with Agway, Inc.,
Syracuse, N.Y., painted a grim
outlook for the next decade for
dairy farmers in the Northeast.
Looking ahead from 1983 to 1984,
Dr. Mix listed the current trends:-
U) Mul r is down; (2) Cost of
production up 2 percent; (3) Net
cash flow per cow Is down 25 to 35
percent; (4) There .will be an in
crease of cow numbers to help
meet expenses until mid-year; (5)
Cull cow prices at $35.00 - $45.00
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stresses theme: ‘Get better, not bigger’
cwt; (6; Sharp reduction in capital
expenditures; <7) There will be
cor inued interest m leasing of
equipment. (8j 5 to lO percent of
dairymen will go out of business
from *B3to ‘B4.
It will be "survival of the fittest”
and will be particularly hard on the
young dairyman who is still trying
to establish himself, he said.
Expanding his outlook, Mix
predicted that in the tune span
from 1983 to 1990 thefe will be a 22
percent drop in the. number of
farms in the Northeast, meaning
up to 8,000 operations will go out of
business.
Adding that the farms surviving
will be bigger operations with
more cows. Mix stated that more
fanners will turn to computers
linked to mam data banks to keep
them up to date on their
operational - and financial . con
dition. Because of the huge
amounts of capitol that will be
needed per worker in the years to
come, Mix stated that “the name
of the game for this decade is the
management of money.”
Previously, the farmer had to
closely monitor his management
practices, herd health, and crop
productions, and while this is still
essential to stay in business,
today’s producer must develop a
detailed financial plan for the farm
and stick to it. Again emphasizing
"get better, rather than bigger”
Dr. Mix said that those who are
able to survive in 1983-1984 will
start to see a return to normal
profits toward 1990.
Although “the amount of debt
service” will be the key to the
survival of the young dairyman.
Mix stated that all producers
should be greatly involved in the
Dairy & Livestock Day
Speakers for the dairy portion of program at Penn State include, from the left, C.W.
Heald, M.L o , Connor / and T.F. Sweeney.
marketing of their .products.
“There has been a steady upturn in
milk produced and in cow numbers
in the last 5 years,” Mix continued.
be alternative plans to
this practice and it is up to each
and every dairyman to participate
in Uie future of the industry, Mix
said.
Because of the excess of milk in
different areas, there is continued
controversy' over who should be
made to pay the penalty. Dr. Mix
reviewed the current plans under
consideration.
(1) Drop the support price 2.50
per cwt. in 5 increments of 50 cents
each starting 4/1/83.
(2) Milk tax on assessment of
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1.00 cwt. by April 1. Dr. Misstated
that he is personnaUy opposed to
this since it won’t do any good. It
may be repealed but will be
stressed as the program unless an
alternative is initiated.
(3) Voluntary Incentive
'Program of 10.00 to $12.00 cwt for
production under the 1982 base.
The upper Midwest Coalition
asssumes that it costs the
government $17.00 cwt. to buy and
store milk and believes if it isn’t
produced to store, then the
government could afford to give
the dairyman 10.00 to 12.00 for each
cwt. reduced from the 1982 level.
(4) Two Tier Price Plan
Within Base $13.10, Over Base $l.lO
This minimizes your need for
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constant ventilation, since the air is
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. waste.
healthier living environment, you
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plus a 15 cent cwt assessment.
(5) The 85-15 Program in
troduced by Congressman Jef
fords.
Reminding all present that the
outlook is for “more production for
a decreased population,” Mix
suggested increased and better
quality promotion to increase per
capita consumption in the United
States as a partial solution to the
surplus. Mix concluded that there
should be a 10 cent to 15 cent per
cwt. deduction for advertising and
that the dairy industry definately
needs increased advertising. He is
in favor of some brand advertising
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in manually removing
'Your livestock have a
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