, USDA forecasts slow farm economy
dozen, slightly above the 73 cents
of a year ago. With continued tight
consumer budgets and plentiful
supplies of meat, wholesale egg
prices in New York may average
75 to 78. cents in October-
December, near the 77 cents of
fourth-quarter 1980.
Turkeys
Even though unfavorable
returns reduced the hatch from
January through April 1981, turkey
production in the third quarter was
about 8 percent above a year
earlier. The number of poults
hatched suggests that production
in the fourth quarter may exceed
1980 by 4 percent.
Record large turkey stocks and
increased production are
depressing turkey prices.
Wholesale prices for young, 8 to 16
pound hen turkeys in New York
averaged 59.5 cents in September,
* down from 74.5 cents last year.
Prices in the third quarter
averaged 62.7 cents, down from
68.3 cents last year. Fourth
quarter prices are expected to
average 55 to 57 cents, well below
last year’s 73 cents.
Crop
Soybeans
While 1981/82 U.S. soybean
supplies will rebound sharply from
last season’s drought-reduced
level, demand factors suggest only
moderate gains in use.
Soybean production is forecast to -
jump 18 percent this year to 2.1
billion bushels, as higher yields
(Continued from Page B 38)
outweigh the 2-million-acre drop in
planted acreage. Larger
production combined with a
carrym of 320 million bushels will
boost total soybean supplies to 2.4
billion bushels.
As indications of a bumper crop
rolled in, soybean prices at the
farm declined sharply dropping
from $7.42 a bushel in May to $6.29
in mid-September.
Without significant changes in
the demand picture, prices are apt
to continue at their current low
levels through the heavy harvest
period of October-December. The
season average pnce is expected
to fall between $5.50 and $7.00.
Total disappearance in 1981/82 is
projected to reach 2.0 billion
bushels, up only 9 percent from
last season. Prospects for im
proved crushing margins resulting
from relatively weak soybean
prices will help bolster demand for
domestic crushing now forecast
to rise 60 million bushels to 1,080
milhpn.
A similar increase is projected
for exports, which could reach 840
million bushels 'this season.
Despite these increases, carryover
stocks are projected to rise about a
third to a record 420 million.
Feed Grains
As of October 1, the 1981 feed
grain crop was forecast at a record
245.3 million metric tons, nearly 4
million above the September
forecast and 7 million above the
previous record set in 1979. The
forecast com crop of 8.08 billion
bushels (205 million metric tons) is
up 2 percent from the September
forecast Total feed gram supplies
are projected at 280.2 million tons,
11 percent above last year but 2
percent below 1979/80,
Feed use of all feed grains is
expected to climb about 4 percent
in 1981/82 to 130 million tons. The
estimate of com exports was
raised 50 million bushels to 2,500
million because of increased trade
prospects with the,Soviet Union.
Total feed grain exports are
forecast at 74.1 million tons, up 6
percent from last year.
With a larger com crop in
prospect, carryover stocks will
likely increase more than
previously estimated. By the end
of 1981/82, carryover stocks will
likely be about 1.5 billion bushels,
with total feed grain stocks
projected at 50.0 million tons.
Larger supplies and an expected
buildup of stocks have dampened
the price outlook. This prompted
openmg of the farmer-owner
reserve to 1981 com, sorghum, and
barley and to 1980 grain still under
a regular CCC loan. Season
average com prices are now
projected at $2.60 to $2.90 a bushel,
compared with 1980/81’s $3.10.
The supply of wheat for 1981/82 is
a record 3.74 billion bushels.
However, total domestic use and
exports are expected to exceed the
record production of 2.75 billion
Wheat
Lancaster Farming, Saturday, November 21, f 981—139
bushels, leaving carryover stocks
down from a year earlier.
Feed use for 1981/82 was forecast
in late October at 200 million
bushels, 75 million above the
previous estimate. Stronger world
demand, particularly from, the
USSR, is estimated to expand U.S.
shipments to a new high of 1.9
What price
conservation practice?
By Herbert L. Brodie
Extension Ag Engineer
COLLEGE PARK, Md. - Each
day 1 pass a field which once had a
grassed waterway to carry upland
runoff across the property.
This spring the field was disced
and the waterway was eliminated,
apparently to save time and
management effort. The field was
then left to stand fallow.
After the first ram it was obvious
that, although the grass was gone,
the waterway was still there The
runoff followed its natural path
and took soil with it, forming a
gully. With each succeeding rain
through May and June the gully
grew in size.
The field was, again disced to
smooth the gully, and soybeans
were planted. More ram produced
another gully. As the season
progressed the beans grew, and so
did the gully.
The gully is about 1,200 feet long,
25 feet wide and 2 feet deep in the
center. This is a void of about
30,000 cubic feet or about 1,000 tons
of soil moved from the field in less
than six months. This amount of
topsoil would cost about $14,000.
Obviously, this fanner doesn’t put
that much value on his soil.
In a nearby field of corn, the land
billion bushels 26 percent more
than last season's record.
Although early season farm
prices for wheat have been the
lowest in 3 years, the increasing
demand is expected to improve the
price level. Still, the 1981/82
average farm price will likely be
below last season’s $3.96 a bushel
is a
was plowed and planted up to the
road ditch. Eroded soil covers the
road and has filled the ditch This
farmer not only throws away soil,
but he pays taxes to have the
county clean the ditches and take
his soil away
Is the operation of machinery so
complicated that tillage tools
cannot be lifted across a grassed
waterway without destroying it’
How much additional combine
maintenance will result from
crossing a gully on every field
pass? Is the value of corn in end
rows so high that grass buffer
strips cannot be maintained to
prevent soil loss?
What is soil worth on your farm?
If you’re just going to let runoff
carry it away, give me a call. I’ll
arrange for a loader and a truck
and we’ll sell the soil to someone
who can put it to better use. That
way you’ll get some'income and
road crews can spend their tune
fixing roads rather than cleaning
ditches. Unfortunately, we won’t
stop the erosion of the remaining
soil. Only conservation practices
can do that. Contact your*local
Cooperative Extension office or
Soil Conservation District office
for assistance.
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