B3B—Lancaster Farming, Saturday, November 14,1981
Farmers face squeeze on available cropland
WASHINGTON, D.C. - U.S.
farmers’ unmatched productivity
will be put to the test over the next
20 years, as they try to coax
enough out of the nation’s limited
supply of cropland to meet sharply
rising demand for their products.
According to one recent report,
the National Agricultural Lands
Study, urban encroachment and
rural development have turned
some of our most productive
farmland into airports, shopping
centers, industrial sites, housing
developments, highways, and
reservoirs.
The study estimates that non-
federal rural land was converted to
non-agricultural uses at the rate of
about 3 million acres a year bet
ween 1967 and 1975. Over two
thirds of the conversions were to
urban use or to rural residential,
commercial, industrial, and
transportation uses. The
remainder of the land was turned
into reservoirs and lakes.
Of course, only a portion of the
converted rural land was cropland.
According to the Soil Conservation
Service, about 672,000 acres of
cropland were converted to urban
uses annually in the 1967-75 period
Possibly an additional 200,000
acres of potential cropland were
also converted
Looking into the future, the lands
study puts the projected loss of
current and potential cropland at
up to 20 million acres in the next
two decades if present trends
continue.
Such figures deserve attention
Although there are several hun
dred million acres of cropland in
the U.S., we’re drawing from a
limited resource
Also, most of the readily
available land is already in
production and any conversions
reduce the base for further ex
pansion.
Soil Conservation Service' sur
veys indicated a cropland base of
413 million acres in 1977. An ad
ditional 127 million acres were
estimated to have “high” or
“medium” economic potential for
crop use.
Mel Cotner, who directs the
natural resource economics unit
within USDA, agrees that farm
-land conversion may be cause
for concern He’s convinced that
American agriculture is capable of
meeting the increased demand it
will face by the turn of the century,
but this assessment hinges on a
number of factors, including steps
taken to protect the nation’s
cropland base.
Market forces will also play a
role in restraining the need for
additional land, according to
economist Robert Boxley. For
example, the lands study
calculates that most, if not all, of
the nation’s cropland base may
have to be brought into cultivation
to meet projected demand over the
next 20 years
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However, Boxley points out that
this conclusion assumes that
growth in world food demand is
unencumbered by major changes
in present consumption habits,
world production and trade pat
terns, and price relationships.
In all likelihood, an actual in
crease in cropland use of this
magnitude could occur only if
commodity prices were high
enough to cover the production
costs associated with bringing this
much acreage of less productive
land into cultivation. At such
prices for U.S. commodities, world
demand for U.S. production would
probably be less than projected by
the lands study.
Population growth remains one
of the most significant pressures.
More people than ever are moving
to rural areas, where the
population grew faster than in
cities in the 1970’5. Suburban
population is expected to grow by
62-75 percent by the year 2000,
adding to the ongoing expansion of
urban areas into surrounding
counties.
As demands increase for
housing, commercial develop
ment, recreational facilities,
roads, and schools, the immediate
result is loss of farmland.
Some farmers sell their land
rather than trying to cope with the
tensions arising from increasing
number of nonfarm people living
close to their farms. Also, or
dinances may be passed that
restrict some of their normal
farming practices, and they may
be discouraged by vandalism of
their crops and machinery,
lawsuits over crop dusting, and
declining politicial power locally.
The new residents’ demands for
unproved services and facilities
may also mean higher property
taxes, and it is often the orginal
residents with their larger
landholdings who end up
bearing most of ttie burden.
Economic grovrth is drawing
people to rural areas. Jobs in
virtually every industry grew at a
faster rate in non-metropolitan
areas than in urban areas in the
1970’5. This leads to more in
dustrial construction and,
frequently, farmland conversion
However, it also provides in-
Gordon S. Lon<
creased opportunities to farm
families who depend on off-farm*
jobs.
Some researchers hold that the
“impermanence syndrome” can
speed the abandonment of farm
-land. According to this concept,
fanners look at what is happening
around them and conclude, rightly
or wrongly, that agriculture can’t
last much longer in their area.
They may stop making capital
investments or adopting con
servation measures that require
years of farming to pay off.
Other analysts, though, insist
that this practice doesn’t
necessarily lead to -the actual
conversion of farmland. In many
cases, abandoned farmland is
eventually brought bach into
cultivation by new farmers.
According to the lands study, the
government contributes,
sometimes in advertently, to the
conversion of farmland. The report
noted a number of federal
programs with the primary pur
pose of encouraging or aiding rural
development, which may con
sequently result in the conversion
of farmland to other purposes.
Ail this pressure on farmland
wouldn’t be so bad if annual farm
productivity weren’t also growing
at a slower rate. In the 1960’5, U.S.
production increased enough to
meet rising demand, even with a
drop in the acreage planted,
because the crop yield per acre
increased by about 1.6 percent
annually.
But in the 1970’s the growth rate
dropped, and three-fourths of the
production increase had to come
from increased acreage. From
1969 to 1980, acreage planted
jumped from 299 million acres to
360 million acres, an increase of 20
percent.
Without a major technological
breakthrough, the future crop
yield growth rate could be as low
or lower than that of the 1970’5,
according to the lands study.
One possible explanation for this
drop in yield growth is that the
land brought into cultivation in the
1970’s was less productive. Also,
the sharply rising cost of farm
production inputs especially
energy-based inputs encouraged
some farmers to reduce their use
Yeaf End
Hurry to this sp ®°!f r 'Jes to help
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or to substitute additional land for
purchased inputs.
As rising natural gas costs make
irrigation pumps more expensive
to operate, some land could be
taken out of Irrigated agriculture.
At the same time, salinization of
, some western soils, caused in part
by overirrigation, has reduced soil
fertility „ ,
Wnfleirrigation costs are rising,
the available groundwater sup
plies are falling in many areas of
the country, making it still more
difficult to sustain the past output
increases from irrigated
agriculture.
These limitations also affect the
amount of potential cropland that
can be converted to crop use, while
overgrazing of rangeland would
lower its potential as cropland by
increasing erosion.
Because of the uncertain
prospects for improved yields,
farmers may have to rely on in
creased acreage to meet demand
in the next 20 years. But there is
some uncertainty as to how rapidly
or easily potential cropland can
actually be converted to crop use.
Higher per-unit crop production
costs will likely result, as potential
cropland is generally poorer land,
less stable in terms of crop yield.
Longer-term problems may also
come with use of potential
cropland. It is generally more
susceptible to soil erosion and
environmental problems from
pesticide and fertilizer runoff.
The problems stemming from
the loss of cropland point to the
wisdom or more carefully
balancing farmland conversion
decisions as one way to hold down
production and food costs in the
future. Mel Cotner also identifies
other important issues;
• Meeting demand without long
term damage to our agricultural
land base.
» Allocating agricultural., State- governments have ajso
research to assure future taken; action. In the
productivity growth. Agricultural Areas Act works in
• Emphasizing land-conserving - conjunction with county zonipg
techniques in farm management laws -to, protect farmland,
and conservation assistance . Agricultural districting designates
programs legally-recognized areas for Tong-
Protectingthe Land term agricultural use. In soSie
How much' is being done to slow-.cases, these areas are suggested
the disappearance of cropland’, . by local farmers and approved at
According to the lands the- the state level.
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“land ethic” preached by resource
conservationists seems to be
taking hold among at least some
communities concerned about the
loss of farmland in their areas. A
key factor for success appears to
be „ farmland preservation
programs that arc tied in with a
community’s comprehensive
growth management plan.
Zoning is one of the most popular
approaches to the problem. This is
normally done at the local rather
than the state level. In the last
decade, 104 counties and 166
municipalities have gone this
route, although, until recently,
many zoning programs weren’t
stringent enough to effectively
protect farmland, allowing small
minimum lot sizes and open-ended
lists of nonfarm uses.
New zoning ordinances have
greatly decreased the allowed
residential densities in
agricultural areas or increased the
minimum lot size. Rezonings are
granted only to those lands no
longer suited to agricultural use.
“Sliding scale” zoning is a
recent experiment where the
number of dwelling units per
mitted is based on the size of the
parcel of land, with density per
acre decreasing as the parcel size
increases. For instance, a
developer may be allowed to build
four units on a 100-acre parcel, but
only 10 units on a 500-acre parcel.
The purchase of development
rights from farmers is another
approach being tried in a few local
programs. 'The community pays
the farmer the difference between
the value of the land for
agriculture .and its value 'as
development property, thus
compensating the farmer and
keeping the land in agriculture.
These programs, though, tend to
be costly.
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