f
Growing world markets absorb U.S. farm output
WASHINGTON, D.C. - The
world’s growing appetite and its
increasing dependence on
American fanners will probably
match any expansion in U.S.
agricultural output during the next
two decades, says USDA trade
analyst Patrick O’Brien.
Foreign dependence on the U.S.
has been rising since the end of
World War n, but dramatic yield
gains and increased acreage
allowed U.S. crop production to
more than keep pace. In fact, U.S,
agricultural capacity for exceeded
food demand for most of that
period.
However, in the early 1970’5, this
trend began to reverse itself.
Rising world demand for grain
forced the U.S. to commit most of
its once-excess resources to meet
world needs. Foreign demand for
U.S. agricultural products grew
almost 9 percent per year, while
U.S. agricultural output increased
2.8 percent per year.
From 1970 to 1980, U.S.
agricultural exports rose from 62
million metric tons to 164 million
tons. At the same time, the
demands on U.S. cropland in
creased dramatically.
According to O’Brien, by the end
of the 1960’s foreign demand
required the production of about 1
U.S. acre out of every 5 planted, or
14 percent of total marketings. By
the end of the 1970’5, exports ac
AT HERR'S THE BOTTOM LINE COST IS YOUR SAVINGS
WINTER WORK
O CLOTHES
CREOSOTE WHITE
• • Creosote/Oil Base Formula
* Glass Finish
• Good Durability
• Weather Resistant
• Easy to Apply
• Lead Free Harmless to Livestock
• Economically Priced
• Ideal for Barn, Fences and all
Farm Outbuildings
1 Gal
Reg. $13.95
SALE ‘IP
♦a
50 LB.
HI PROTEIN
DOG FOOD
Reg. $11.99
With This Coupon
at E.M. Herr
(Expires Nov. 21,1981)
counted for 1 out of every 3.5 acres
planted, or 30 percent of total
marketings.
As a result, between the markets
at home and abroad, there was a
buyer for nearly every kernel of
grain produced.
O’Brien concludes that world
demand for U.S. farm products
and its impact on U.S. agriculture
over the next few decades “wUI be
far more similar to the turbulent
middle and late 1970’s than to the
previous 25 years. ”
The ability of the UJS. to keep up
with the world’s growing appetite
is being challenged by the rapid
increase in population.
“Foreign population has in
creased 75 percent in the last three
decades. This unprecedented
growth in the sheer number of
people to be fed has generated two
thirds of the increase in world
demand over the same period,’’
O’Brien says.
Although the rate of growth is
expected to slow during the 1980’s,
world population is still expected
to increase more than 50 percent in
the next 20 years from 4.2 billion
in 1980 to nearly 6.5 billion by the
year 2000.
Additionally, there is the rising
demand in both developed and
developing counties for improved
diets, with more meat, eggs, and
milk.
Carhartt
& Wrangler
Come see our
large
selection,
you’ll love the
price
Lined Jackets
Lined Cover
alls
Work Jeans
Pile Lined
Vests
Overalls
Shoes &
Boots
PORTABLE OIL HEATERS
No. 570
NUTS & BOLTS - Stock Up Now
Your choice of any size up to 6” or type of
Grade 2 bolts, nuts & flat-washers. Buy them
by the lb. and save 10 lb. or More
BOLTS -Grade 2 Grades
i Reg. $1.09 ‘ NUTS & BOLTS
Also Available
Reg. $1.29
2 Gal. Pail
Reg. $23.95
$1095
SALE IU
s AUf
•2
More People to Feed
AC-225-S OESnEL
arc waoER iiSaSQI
!■* REDDY HEATER
.Hi Capacity 50,080 W M69*
Fan
• Flame Out ««« mins
Safety Switch 150JW0 ”1™
IX 15 O j
OQC
NOW
“If U.S. agricultural production
expands fast enough to meet the
anticipated growth in export
demand, our agricultural sector
will have to run closer to capacity
than at any other time,” O’Brien
says. “Significantly more of our
agricultural and nonagricultural
resources will have to be used
and used more intensively to
produce food.”
Within Our Capat it;.
O’Brien estimates that the
demand for U.S. grains and
oilseeds could increase from the
370 million tons per year at the end
of the 1970’s to nearly 440 million
tons by 1985.
This projection takes into ac
count the taiown potential for in
creasing production abroad. In
short, most other countries of the
world face problems in expanding
production similar to those in the
U.S. These problems include rising
energy and input prices, limited
availability and additional prime
land, constraints on further ex
pansion of irrigation, and limited
funds to meet rising capital in
vestment costs.
For these and other reasons,
current indications suggest that
consumption needs in the rest of
the world will grow faster than
foreign production. The resulting
gap will have to be filled by im
ports from the U.S. and a handful
of other exporting nations.
7.99
34"
Rods
Reg. 75'
*£ 69°
per lb.
' mg. m
30,000 s ifS“ *139“
100,000 ‘299" *259"
CORDOVAN
TRACTOR
BATTERIES
• 6 volt
• 36 mo. warranty
• w/trade-in
As Low As
*34**
NOW *l.o9i b
AG SCREWS
Reg. $1.59
1 .29,
Meeting this growth in demanu
may call for an annual rate of
increase in U.S. grain and oilseed
production of roughly 3 percent,
O’Brien says. This would be equal
to the annual rate of increase
achieved in the late 1970’5.
But, have we exhausted our
capacity to increase agricultural
production at this rate?
Unlike many observers who
conclude that we have, O’Brien
says, “The combined acreage and
productivity gains needed to ex
pand output 3 percent per year by
the late 1980’s are certainly within
our physical capacity.”
He cites a Soil Conservation
service study which found 413
million acres of U.S. cropland, of
which only 360 million acres are
currently being used to grow
crops. In addition, another 127
million acres of U.S. soil are
classified as potential cropland.
In light of the figures, O’Brien
says that if all goes well, “We may
have physical capacity well in
excess of anticipated demand
through the end of the century.”
Higher Farm Prices
In order for farm production to
keep up with demand, monetary
incentives for growers must keep
pace with the increasing costs of
production energy, fertilizer,
and labor.
After adjusting for inflation,
“real prices” received by U.S.
FROSTEXII
safer Haatlni Cable
won’t overheat
even when
overlapped
use on any
pipe, even
plastic
more reliable**.
new design for
long life
regulates its I
own heat out
put without a j
thermostat (|
cut it to any
length
$ 1” Ft
WE UPS ANYWHERE JUST CALL 717-464-3321
SALE PRICES GOOD THROUGH NOVEMBER 21
DIRECTIONS
FARM A HOI
TO EM HERR
IE SURREY ■.
N -
3IS
2MW
Hi—VILU POAt
(•Milt SOUTH or
★ EM MEM
FARM 4
HOME SUPPLY
HIM X «•
Wi R
All "
WILLOW STREET
1 MILE SOUTH Of
Store Hours
Mon -Thurs Sat
7 30 A.M. -
5 00 PM.
7 30A.M -
6.00 P.M
Fn 7:30-9:00
Ut—tw Farming, Saturday, Hav—bf 14. 19t1—A25
HUS ®
PIPE
ADVANCED DRAINAGE SYSTEMS INC (ASGS Approval)
4" Solid or 6" Solid or
Perforated Perforated
Also Available in 8", 10", 12”, 15", 18"
CALL FOR QUANTITY PRICES
OUA—TVIIU
SUPPLY
R.D. 1, Rte. 272 South, Knnile M.
WHm Stmt, Pa.
Plwnt: (717) 464-3321 ....
growers would have to increase
nearly 1 to 3 percent per year,
compared with “real price”
declines averaging 1 to 2 percent a
year over the last 30 years. This
will be imperative if farmers are
expected to increase production,
O’Brien says.
Also, our marketing and tran
sportation facilities will need
extensive improvements to handle
large volumes of crops. “By the
mid-1980’s, the volume of products
moving through the marketing
system could reach as high as 755
million tons, compared with an
average of 560 million tons in the
1970’5, and 450 million tons in the
1960’5,” O’Brien explains.
While growing export demand
will bolster U.S. farm inceomes,
consumers could face increases in
food prices unless higher farm
commodity prices can be offset by
increased productivity in food
processing and marketing.
AUGERS 4
By
MJM /
a#
• Includes spout & head
4"xii’ $ 106.75
4”xi6' *131.55
6”xii' *171.95
6”xi6’ *212.95
B"xii’ *250.95
B”xi6' *307.95