Alo—Lancaster Farming, Saturday, September 26,1981
• What are the chances of flipping a coin and
having it come up heads, tales, and land on its
edge all at once? Pretty slim, you say?
Well, believe it or not, that's what happened
on Tuesday during the Agri-Business Outlook
Conference held at Cockeysville, Md. No
matter what you came into the conference
hoping to hear whether it was an optimistic
forecast, a pessimistic one, or one that was a
happy medium you left the conference
statisfied that at least someone agreed with
your thinking about agriculture’s future.
For the pessimist, there was Sheldon Stahl,
president of Economic Consulting Service,
Kansas City, Mo. He painted a picture that
showed our national economy in very poor
light. “Anyway the federal reserve turns, it will
be the wrong way," he said, decisively.
The slightest encouragement he allowed
himself to reveal he quickly squelched.
Although he predicted a modest decline in
interest rates, he emphasized that he saw this
decline to be short-lived and that by the year's
end interest rates will be on the rise again.
Just to make his point unquestionably clear,
this economics forecaster noted that "if the
economy does manage to lurch on, the
slightest pressure could cause it to fall over
the edge into a recession."
Stahl was slightly more hopeful about
agriculture’s future, seeing it as a more stable
field, less inflationary. He stated the demands
are there for agricultural products if people
can afford to buy the “fruits of ag labor.”
He even added foreign coutries should be
given or lent the money so they have funds to
buy food, and pointed out “a hungry world is
one of conflict."
Agriculture is less inflationary? Keep food
cheap so peace can be maintained in foreign
nations? Unfortunately for farmers, when this
economist looks at agriculture’s future, he
doesn't seem to be watching out for the well
being of the people who do all the work.
Donald Bowman, president of Bowman
Financial Management Company, Baltimore,
Md. presented a more optimistic outlook for
agribusiness.
He expressed his belief that the next 25
years will be “golden for farms” with trade
expanding into the Orient and Far East.
“We’ve passed the major turning point. If
NOW IS THE TIME
To Check Water Supplies
Good quality drinking water is a
real asset on the farm. Some
farmers may be having trouble
with a high bacteria count or high
nitrates in their water supplies.
These are hard problems to
correct. However, in many cases
the trouble comes from surface
water getting into the well.
We urge all rural residents to
check their wells and be sure that
surface water is diverted around
the well area. This is especially
true if the well is located down
grade from farm buildings or from
where livestock wastes have been
scattered.
Commercial laboratories are
available to test the water;
however, it is very difficult to
correct these problems once they
are identified. Keep surface water
Off the
Somtfmg Board
By Sheila Miller, Editor
All that glitters isn 9 t gold
By Jay Irwin
Lancaster County Agriculture Agent
Phone 717-394-6851
away from the well area at all
times.
- To Check Fan Louvers
Fan louvers on poultry and swine
To Use Good operations should shut tightly
Livestock Equipment when a fan is not operating. If they
The moving and handling of don’t, air will enter through the
livestock is a very important open louver and be discharged by
practice in this part of the state, the nearest running fan, giving you
We have thousands of livestock no Ventilation value. ,
farms and there is a lot of traffic When the fan is on, louvers must
between farms and other public be fully open; otherwise they will
places. Producers who have the restrict the flow of air from the
proper equipment to handle their building. Tests have shown that a
livestock with minimum stress, little dust on fan louvers can
will do, better in the market place restrict air flow by more than 1,000
with less losses. I’m referring to c.f.m'. per fan. A restricted fan
loading ramps, cutting gates, and operates longer and bears a
head gates. All of these can be heavier load using more elec
made on the farm or purchased tncity, which costs money,
from commercial businesses. In many cases, you can repair
To handle and treat livestock louvers that are sticking open or
without this equipment usually shut just by cleaning them and
means more excitement, bruises, applying oil or a rust solvent to the
and loss of weight. Becomes lunges,
equipped to do the job properly. - (Turn to Page fill)
we can get through the next few years, our
future looks bright."
Bowman predicted that until the end of
December of this year, prime interest rates
would drop from their current 19*72 percent to
about 14-17 percent, and by the end of next
year he said interest rates would drop to the
10-14 percent level.
Great news for everyone, but especially to
farmers who have to fight the inflationary
trends in the machinery and supply markets.
Bowman signed off by saying 1984-86 would
be a period of prosperity for American
agriculture, and that he’s moderately op
timistic on the short term and very optimistic
on the longterm.
And then -there was Bruce Gardner, a
professor of Ag Economics at the University of
Maryland, who offered a little optimism and
pessimism to keep everybody happy.
He stated the rising trend of commodity
prices is true, however in the past there was a
lowering trend. He noted the “scarcity
scenario is not as likely as other experts
predict” and that he doesn’t expect com
modity price rise as a long term trend, at least
not at a rapid rate of increase or decrease.
Gardner encouraged agribusiness people to
look past the "valleys and hills” and year to
year swings of thq ag economy in order to get a
truer picture of conditions.
The question is; “How many farms can
survive those trips up the hills and down into
the valleys?” With the dairy price support
being nipped-and tucked to fit into the Reagan
Administration’s regime and with other ag
legislation aimed at what seems to be knocking
out the decreasing number of farmers in 1981,
those golden years may be a dream for many.
Listening to economists say a $6O-70 billion
tax cut will add to the federal deficit and that
the U.S. can't afford it, and President
Reagan’s pleas to the nation to support his tax
cut package and take up the volunteer at
titudes of our forefathers, leaves us straddling
the fence with both sides pulling.
If agriculture can flounder through the next
several lean years, and if politicians and
economists learn the value of food and don't
cripple farmers with price ceiling and quotes,
things could look golden. But, all that glitters
isn't gold, so promises of across the board
sacrifices will have to be seen to be believed.
~ Furthermore, this means that
we can control the destructiveness
of stressful experiences because
we can choose how we will react to
them. That means we can go to
pieces if we are fired from our job
and regard it as an insurmountable
tragedy and injustice. Or, we can
Background Scripture; dedde t 0 lea ™ fr <™ our ex *
uninh 40 penence, to pick ourselves up and
, Devotional Beading; go on from there. In choosing our
Psalm 89:11-18. • response, we will be managing our
Scientific studies in recent years stress-as well.-
have indicated that certain ex- Other experts in stress
periences are more likely than management tells us the reason we
others to push us beyond our stress become exhausted emotionally
limits. Dr. Thomas Holmes of the and physically at work is not so
University of Washington Medical much a factor of the work itself.
School, conducted a study of the bd of the way we look at it. Thus,
most stressful experiences and Even youths shall faint and be
found that the top of the list is the weary, and young men shall fall
death of a spouse. Divorce is exhausted” (40:30). By the same
second, marital separation third, token, an old man may continue in
imprisonment fourth and death of relative vitality if his outlook is
a close family member fifth. nght.
Interestingly enough, Dr. Wait for The Lord
Holmes found that an experience And what is toe “right outlook”?
doesn’t have to be unpleasant in The prophet Isaiah points us in the
order to be stre&sful. For example, r ‘ght direction when he says, ‘ ‘they
marriage was number seven oh his who wait for toe Lord shall renew
stress scale, retirement was tenth strength, they shall mount up
and marital reconcilhatlon with ,wings like eagles (40:31). If
number nine. This means that we think that we alone face the
pleasant experiences can also challenges and disappointments of
trigger stress. Another physician, dad V bfe, we will be exhausted.
Dr. Gary Vicker of St. Louis, has But we wait patiently for God to
found that “Executive stress is work his plan and purpose, we will
often not triggered by failure, but fuwi renewal In toe midst of life,
by the pressures of success.” the power to go on. Then it will be
Even Youths Become Weary possible to “run and not be
One of the important conclusions weary", to “walk and not faint.”
that Dr. Holmes and others have J When we draw from his strength to
drawn from their study of stress is Bve our daily lives, we will learn
that stress —destructive stress, the patience to allow God to be
that is—is not caused by any of God. It is then that we will receive
these factors. There is nothing that our eagle’s wings. ,
GETTING YOUR
WINGS
September 27,1981
Farm Calendar
Today, Sept. 26 Monday, Sept. 28
Third annual Delmarva Forestry Stream protection workshop.
Seminar, Tidewater Inn, Lancaster Farm & Home
Easton, Md. Center, 7:30 p.m.
Bloomsburg Fair opens, 4-H Horse Pesticide license recertification
Show, morning. Continues meetings, 2 p.m. & 7:30 p.ra.,
through next Saturday. (Turn to Page Al 2)
HAV HAWS
V
“Mom went into town and you know your nest egg? She
scrambled it!”
says that the death of a spouse has
to destroy our vitality. What
causes destructive stress is the
way you and 1 feel about the ex
perience. The destructive power of
the experience is not inherent in it,
but m the way that you and 1 react
to it.
Vs Ir
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