Alo—Lancaster Farming, Saturday, September 26,1981 • What are the chances of flipping a coin and having it come up heads, tales, and land on its edge all at once? Pretty slim, you say? Well, believe it or not, that's what happened on Tuesday during the Agri-Business Outlook Conference held at Cockeysville, Md. No matter what you came into the conference hoping to hear whether it was an optimistic forecast, a pessimistic one, or one that was a happy medium you left the conference statisfied that at least someone agreed with your thinking about agriculture’s future. For the pessimist, there was Sheldon Stahl, president of Economic Consulting Service, Kansas City, Mo. He painted a picture that showed our national economy in very poor light. “Anyway the federal reserve turns, it will be the wrong way," he said, decisively. The slightest encouragement he allowed himself to reveal he quickly squelched. Although he predicted a modest decline in interest rates, he emphasized that he saw this decline to be short-lived and that by the year's end interest rates will be on the rise again. Just to make his point unquestionably clear, this economics forecaster noted that "if the economy does manage to lurch on, the slightest pressure could cause it to fall over the edge into a recession." Stahl was slightly more hopeful about agriculture’s future, seeing it as a more stable field, less inflationary. He stated the demands are there for agricultural products if people can afford to buy the “fruits of ag labor.” He even added foreign coutries should be given or lent the money so they have funds to buy food, and pointed out “a hungry world is one of conflict." Agriculture is less inflationary? Keep food cheap so peace can be maintained in foreign nations? Unfortunately for farmers, when this economist looks at agriculture’s future, he doesn't seem to be watching out for the well being of the people who do all the work. Donald Bowman, president of Bowman Financial Management Company, Baltimore, Md. presented a more optimistic outlook for agribusiness. He expressed his belief that the next 25 years will be “golden for farms” with trade expanding into the Orient and Far East. “We’ve passed the major turning point. If NOW IS THE TIME To Check Water Supplies Good quality drinking water is a real asset on the farm. Some farmers may be having trouble with a high bacteria count or high nitrates in their water supplies. These are hard problems to correct. However, in many cases the trouble comes from surface water getting into the well. We urge all rural residents to check their wells and be sure that surface water is diverted around the well area. This is especially true if the well is located down grade from farm buildings or from where livestock wastes have been scattered. Commercial laboratories are available to test the water; however, it is very difficult to correct these problems once they are identified. Keep surface water Off the Somtfmg Board By Sheila Miller, Editor All that glitters isn 9 t gold By Jay Irwin Lancaster County Agriculture Agent Phone 717-394-6851 away from the well area at all times. - To Check Fan Louvers Fan louvers on poultry and swine To Use Good operations should shut tightly Livestock Equipment when a fan is not operating. If they The moving and handling of don’t, air will enter through the livestock is a very important open louver and be discharged by practice in this part of the state, the nearest running fan, giving you We have thousands of livestock no Ventilation value. , farms and there is a lot of traffic When the fan is on, louvers must between farms and other public be fully open; otherwise they will places. Producers who have the restrict the flow of air from the proper equipment to handle their building. Tests have shown that a livestock with minimum stress, little dust on fan louvers can will do, better in the market place restrict air flow by more than 1,000 with less losses. I’m referring to c.f.m'. per fan. A restricted fan loading ramps, cutting gates, and operates longer and bears a head gates. All of these can be heavier load using more elec made on the farm or purchased tncity, which costs money, from commercial businesses. In many cases, you can repair To handle and treat livestock louvers that are sticking open or without this equipment usually shut just by cleaning them and means more excitement, bruises, applying oil or a rust solvent to the and loss of weight. Becomes lunges, equipped to do the job properly. - (Turn to Page fill) we can get through the next few years, our future looks bright." Bowman predicted that until the end of December of this year, prime interest rates would drop from their current 19*72 percent to about 14-17 percent, and by the end of next year he said interest rates would drop to the 10-14 percent level. Great news for everyone, but especially to farmers who have to fight the inflationary trends in the machinery and supply markets. Bowman signed off by saying 1984-86 would be a period of prosperity for American agriculture, and that he’s moderately op timistic on the short term and very optimistic on the longterm. And then -there was Bruce Gardner, a professor of Ag Economics at the University of Maryland, who offered a little optimism and pessimism to keep everybody happy. He stated the rising trend of commodity prices is true, however in the past there was a lowering trend. He noted the “scarcity scenario is not as likely as other experts predict” and that he doesn’t expect com modity price rise as a long term trend, at least not at a rapid rate of increase or decrease. Gardner encouraged agribusiness people to look past the "valleys and hills” and year to year swings of thq ag economy in order to get a truer picture of conditions. The question is; “How many farms can survive those trips up the hills and down into the valleys?” With the dairy price support being nipped-and tucked to fit into the Reagan Administration’s regime and with other ag legislation aimed at what seems to be knocking out the decreasing number of farmers in 1981, those golden years may be a dream for many. Listening to economists say a $6O-70 billion tax cut will add to the federal deficit and that the U.S. can't afford it, and President Reagan’s pleas to the nation to support his tax cut package and take up the volunteer at titudes of our forefathers, leaves us straddling the fence with both sides pulling. If agriculture can flounder through the next several lean years, and if politicians and economists learn the value of food and don't cripple farmers with price ceiling and quotes, things could look golden. But, all that glitters isn't gold, so promises of across the board sacrifices will have to be seen to be believed. ~ Furthermore, this means that we can control the destructiveness of stressful experiences because we can choose how we will react to them. That means we can go to pieces if we are fired from our job and regard it as an insurmountable tragedy and injustice. Or, we can Background Scripture; dedde t 0 lea ™ fr <™ our ex * uninh 40 penence, to pick ourselves up and , Devotional Beading; go on from there. In choosing our Psalm 89:11-18. • response, we will be managing our Scientific studies in recent years stress-as well.- have indicated that certain ex- Other experts in stress periences are more likely than management tells us the reason we others to push us beyond our stress become exhausted emotionally limits. Dr. Thomas Holmes of the and physically at work is not so University of Washington Medical much a factor of the work itself. School, conducted a study of the bd of the way we look at it. Thus, most stressful experiences and Even youths shall faint and be found that the top of the list is the weary, and young men shall fall death of a spouse. Divorce is exhausted” (40:30). By the same second, marital separation third, token, an old man may continue in imprisonment fourth and death of relative vitality if his outlook is a close family member fifth. nght. Interestingly enough, Dr. Wait for The Lord Holmes found that an experience And what is toe “right outlook”? doesn’t have to be unpleasant in The prophet Isaiah points us in the order to be stre&sful. For example, r ‘ght direction when he says, ‘ ‘they marriage was number seven oh his who wait for toe Lord shall renew stress scale, retirement was tenth strength, they shall mount up and marital reconcilhatlon with ,wings like eagles (40:31). If number nine. This means that we think that we alone face the pleasant experiences can also challenges and disappointments of trigger stress. Another physician, dad V bfe, we will be exhausted. Dr. Gary Vicker of St. Louis, has But we wait patiently for God to found that “Executive stress is work his plan and purpose, we will often not triggered by failure, but fuwi renewal In toe midst of life, by the pressures of success.” the power to go on. Then it will be Even Youths Become Weary possible to “run and not be One of the important conclusions weary", to “walk and not faint.” that Dr. Holmes and others have J When we draw from his strength to drawn from their study of stress is Bve our daily lives, we will learn that stress —destructive stress, the patience to allow God to be that is—is not caused by any of God. It is then that we will receive these factors. There is nothing that our eagle’s wings. , GETTING YOUR WINGS September 27,1981 Farm Calendar Today, Sept. 26 Monday, Sept. 28 Third annual Delmarva Forestry Stream protection workshop. Seminar, Tidewater Inn, Lancaster Farm & Home Easton, Md. Center, 7:30 p.m. Bloomsburg Fair opens, 4-H Horse Pesticide license recertification Show, morning. Continues meetings, 2 p.m. & 7:30 p.ra., through next Saturday. (Turn to Page Al 2) HAV HAWS V “Mom went into town and you know your nest egg? She scrambled it!” says that the death of a spouse has to destroy our vitality. What causes destructive stress is the way you and 1 feel about the ex perience. The destructive power of the experience is not inherent in it, but m the way that you and 1 react to it. Vs Ir M f V I V . /
Significant historical Pennsylvania newspapers