C34—Lancaster Fanning, Saturday, September 19,1981
Having doubts about 1982 planting decisions?
WASHINGTON, D.C. - With the
finish of the 1961 winter wheat
harvest, thoughts turn to
preparing land for the 1982 crop.
Here are a few things to keep in
mind when making your decisions:
ln all probability, there will be
no wheat set-aside or diversion
program for 1982. This sets the
stage for planting decisions in a
wide open, free market at
mosphere.
Current prospects point to a
carryover of around 1.03 billion
bushels when the marketing year
ends next May 31. This would be
only the third time in the last 17
years that stocks have topped 1
billion bushels.
This season’s record wheat
supply suggests that the average
farm price will be below last year’s
93.96 a bushel. Current futures
prices (July, 1982 contracts) in
dicate that next year’s prices may
not be much improved.
Production costs (national
average, excluding land charges)
for the 1981 crop are estimated at
around 93.80 a bushel and certainly -
will be higher next time around.
Interest costs on operating money,
along with fuel and fertilizer ex
penses, will probably be just as
high if not higher.
Even if you’re satisfied with
this year’s excellent harvest, you
should explore potential returns
for other crops—assuming you
have that option, and especially if
you’re in a Soft Red wheat area.
lf provisions of the new farm
bill are well defined and enacted
into law as you complete your
planting decisions, you’ll have
fewer uncertainties to contend
with. But don’t count on it: Much
work needs to be done before all
the details are hammered out, and
Mother Nature can’t wait.
Prices begin season at low levels
This year’s price picture has
been dominated by record supplies
and also by prospects for record
disappearance.
Prices this season will hinge on
the size of export sales, use of the
loan and reserve program, and the
impact of weather on world grain
crops. The season average farm
price is expected to fall slightly
from last year’s $3.96 a bushel to
between |3.70 and $4.00.
The record Soft Red harvest has
depressed early season farm
prices to the |3.20-per-bushel loan
level in many areas. In contrast,
harvest delays, a frost-damaged
crop, and limited producer selling
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MI. AETNA ORCHARDS
3V2 miles north of Myerstown
have kept Hard Red Winter prices
about on par with last year. An
ticipated record harvests of
Durum and Hard Red Spring
wheat dropped prices to below 94
for the first time since May 1980.
Early season prices are below
the 93.81 target price. Unless
prices rebound dramatically by
October, deficiency payments will
be made for the first time since the
1978 crop. The payment rate could
be 10 to 15 cents per bushel. Total
payments would be about 925
million for each cent that the June-
October average price falls below
the target price.
Outlook by classes
Wheat, by itself, is often the
headline in commodity news
items. But as you well know, wheat
is really a composite of five major
classes. This makes production,
supply, export, and price prospects
for each class all-important to the
producers of each.
The 1981 Hard Red Winter crop
To plant or not to plant
will be down 7 percent from last
year’s alltime high. That’s because
a mid-May freeze struck the
Western Plains, destroying an
earlier forecast for a record
harvest. Yet, because of large old
crop stocks, this year’s total
supply will remain large. But with
disappearance projected at an
alltime high (another record ex
port season) and large stocks in
the reserve program, free HRW
stocks could tighten considerably
by season’s end.
A complete turnaround from last
season’s drought-reduced. Hard
Red Spring harvest will result in
record supplies, exceeding 700
million bushels for only the second
time. This situation will weaken
prices and in turn may encourage
expanded foreign demand above
last season’s mediocre 188 million
bushels. Competition may come
from accelerated Canadian wheat
exports and the generally very
WAYNE FRILING & BRIAN PARSONS - WARRIORS MARK, PA.
Talk to your nearby Eastland Seeds dealer soon, while
the very best seed corn values for next season are
available. Your dealer has all Eastland Hybrids at last
year’s prices and will be happy to discuss the wide
variety of corns he has to offer. With the seed corn in
dustry poised for advancing prices, ordering soon will
assure that you get the variety, grade size, and best price
of the season. We also offer one free bag of corn for each
ten purchased.
Join Wayne Friling (shown above) and other sharp corn
growers who know a value when they see it!
Eastland
good protein content of the Hard
Red Winter crop.
Soft Red Winter supplies are
record large, depressing prices to
their lowest in 3 years. This should
make SRW attractive to world
wheat bargain hunters. Estimated
new season shipments could be
over 100 million bushels above last
year’s record 299 million. Behind
the big supplies: The 1981 crop was
a bin-busting 653 million bushels.
So far in the 1980’s, the SRW crop
has averaged more than 540
million bushels, versus 260 million
during the 1970’5.
Because of excellent growing
conditions, the 1981 White wheat
harvest was forecast at a record
350 million bushels on August 1.
This adds further to an enormous
U.S. supply of soft wheats. Con
tinuation of last year’s strong
export activity will depend on
purchases by China, Egypt, Iran
and India past large U.S. White
wheat customers. The price of
SEEDWAY,
White wheat relative to SRW and
West Coast freight cost advantages
will figure in their decisions.
Short supplies of quality Durum
led to very strong- prices last
season, encouraging expanded
plantings this spring. It looks as if
improved growing conditions will
result in record-high yields and a
crop of about 186 million bushels.
Because of the likely large supply,
beginning season market prices
slipped to the lowest level in 3
years. At lower prices, both
domestic and overseas sales of
Durum should pick up this year,"
following .a relatively sluggish
1980/81.
Reserve opened for 1981 wheat
Effective July 24, you may place
1981-crop wheat that is under CCC
loan Into the 3-year farmer-owned
reserve program. But the
provision (enacted last December)
Jhat waived interest charges for
V*- A 4#
Distributed By:
Emmaus, Pa.
215-965-5072
(Turn to Page C 36)
*. -f
INC.