D2—Lancaster Farming, Saturday, February 7,1981
Livestockmen see interest rates, weather as keys to 1981 success
HILTON HEAD ISLAND, S.C. -
Interest rates and weather con
ditions are keys to the success of
the livestock economy in 1981,
directors of Livestock Marketing
Association said here recently.
The nine directors, all veteran
marketing businessmen from
across the U.S. and Canada, were
participating in a region by region
“Marketing Outlook ‘81” session at
LMA’s annual meetings
Several factors were discussed
as having a potential impact on the
livestock economy But the general
consensus was expressed by
James E. “Ed” Frost, Springfield,
Mo., when he said “moisture in
terest rates are going to be
determining factors in the price
and supplies of livestock.”
A prime rate in the mid-teens
could add from $5-$lO cwt. to the
returns on 1981 light calves and
yearling cattle, and from $5O-$lOO
per head on stocker cattle, he said.
Current interest rates are
hurting cattle feeders who want to
expand their operations, said
Wayne F. Craig, of Shippensburg.
Lex Rutherford, Toronto, On
tario, said more producers are
being driven into bankruptcy by
high interest rates. As a result,
banks are taking harder looks at
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prospective borrowers, especially
cattle feeders.
The directors predicted the
prime interest rate will drop,
generally agreeing with Charles E
Leask, Regina, Sask., who forecast
a prime of 12-14 percent by June.
However, W.H. “Billy” Hodges,
Alexandria, La., predicted the
prune would stay between 18-20
percent He also said competition
in the South for grazing land
between cattlemen and crop
producers, along with drought
conditions, are keeping cattle
numbers down
Joel Bennett, St. Paul, Minn.,
also said he was concerned that
dry conditions would lead to a
continuing liquidation of the cattle
herd in 1981.
Met Johnson, Cedar City, Utah,
said extreme drought conditions in
California have reduced cattle
numbers about 20-25 percent, and
by about 20 percent in Arizona.
Numbers are also down in Utah
and Nevada, he said.
Johnson reported some banks in
his area are now matching the
interest rates of local Production
Credit Associations in livestock
loans.
Cattle numbers are down in the
west and Pacific'Northwest, ac-
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301-733-0515
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cording to Urban J “Shorty”
Amzen, Cottonwood, Idaho
“The cattle aren’t there, and the
yearlings aren’t there this year A
lot of light cattle are being kept on
the ranches,” he said
Both Johnson and Arnzen ex
pressed support for the so-called
“Sagebrush Rebellion,” the effort
of western states to gam more
control over land now owned by the
federal government. Permits
allowing cattlemen to graze cattle
on these federal lands have been
reduced, causing a reduction in
total cattle numbers, they said.
Frost also commented on cattle
numbers, noting he witnessed from
10-15 percent cattle marketed in
1980, primarily because of severe
drought conditions in the Midwest
Rutherford said cattle numbers in
eastern Canada are up somewhat,
but the number of marketing
transactions last year was down
because of higher interest rates
and feed costs.
Weather conditions have had a
varying effect on feed and forage
conditions throughout North
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“If the west’s mild weather
continues, we could see a
carryover of hay for 2-3 years,”
said Arnzen
Frost and Pat Kelly, Arcadia,
Fla, reported, however, the hay
crop is short in many parts of their
regions, due to weather conditions.
Several directors called for
changes in current federal and
state animal health regulations.
Arnzen said more uniformity in
PILLOW Heart of Penn goat
breeders will celebrate Valentines
Day a week early when they have a
covered dish supper following their
short business meeting on
February 7,1981
So that those attending don’t get
too hungry during the meeting the
group will be called to order
promptly at 8 p.m.
Anyone owning or interested in
dairy goats is welcome to attend
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Goat breeders to meet
these regulations from state-to
state is critical if the marketing
sector is to continue to keep
livestock commerce moving.
And Hodges called for more trust
between states and an end to states
using health regulations as
blockades to livestock commerce
Disagreement was evident on
the future of electronic livestock
marketing. “Although the industry
is not ready for it yet, there will
definitely be some sort of elec
tronic system,” Bennett said
the event, whether or not they are
members.
The February meeting will be
held near Pillow, in the South
western comer of Northumberland
County.
For information about the
meeting or organization or for
directions to the meeting place call
the secretary, R. Moiaro at
717/758-8359
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Ph. 786-7318
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Ph 285-4538