020—Lancaster Farming, Saturday, November 22,1980
1981 livestock prices, costs to jump sharply
NEW HOLLAND -
Livestock and poultry prices
are expected to increase
later this fall and throughout
most of 1981 as total meat
supplies remain below year
earlier levels
However, despite
prospects for much higher
1981 prices, the outlook for
producers’ profits has been
clouded by much higher
costs, particularly for feed.
Sharply higher meat prices
are also in store for 1981.
Higher livestock and poultry
prices will be necessary to
enable producers to cover
higher feeding costs, par
ticularly on marketings in
the second half of 1981.
If livestock and poultry
prices fail to cover
production costs, future
output may be reduced
Total red meat and poultry
supplies are expected to
increase seasonally this fall,
but remain below levels of a
year ago. Increased fed
cattle marketings this fall
and winter will be further
augmented by continued
large nonfed cattle slaughter
so beef production will likely
be above year-earher levels.
Pork supplies are rising
seasonally, but remain
below last year’s levels and
the rate of decline will ac
celerate late this fall
Broiler producers have
started to expand production
m response to prospects for
declining red meat supplies
and higher prices But in
creases in broiler output
may be limited by higher
production costs.
Per capita consumption of
pork in 1981 may fall about 10
percent from 1980 levels, and
beef consumption could be
down slightly.
Broiler consumption in
early 1981 will about equal
last year’s levels and should
increase throughout the
remainder of the year, but
not enough to offset the drop
m red meat consumption.
Consequently, per capita red
meat and poultry con-
sumption may decline about
two to four percent in 1981
Retail meat prices in the
third quarter increased 4.5
percent from the previous
quarter, but were still only
3.9 percent above the third
quarter of 1979 The Con
sumer Price Index for pork
rose 9 6 percent from the
previous quarter but only 2.9
percent for beef
Declining meat supplies,
rising consumer incomes,
and continued high rates of
inflation are likely to result
4-H leaders attend
national forum
MEDIA - Three
Delaware County 4-H
leaders were sent to
National Leaders Forums
this fall.
Elsie and Melvin Brown of
Ridley Township spent a
week at Jackson’s Mill State
4-H Camp in West Virginia
with 150 4-H leaders from 12
states. According to C.R.
Bryan, Jr., Delaware County
4-H Agent.
The focus of this forum
was “4-H and the Family”
which was designed to help
leaders strengthen family
involvement in 4-H. The
sessions featured presen
tations, discussions and
workshops to strengthen 4-H
leaders ability to share with
others the learning ex
periences in family growth
that can happen through 4-H
involvement.
Nadine Albany of Prospect
Park spent a week at the
National 4-H Center in
Washington, D.C., exploring
ways to involve more
disabled youth in 4-H
programs. Forty nine 4-H
staff and 4-H leaders from 17
states attended this forum
which had speakers,
workshops, tours and
sharing sessions about
in substantial increases in
retail meat prices in 1981
Pork prices are expected
to increase the most,
perhaps 25 percent or more
Beef prices mav increase 12
to 16 percent and poultry
meat prices 15 to 20 percent
The sharpest price in
creases may begin in the
second quarter as nonfed
cattle slaughter slows with
the beginning of the spring
grazing season.
Fed cattle price gams will
likely be held down through
the first quarter of 1981 as
needs, accessibility, training
and program adaption for
disabled youth. Each par
ticipant has made plans and
set goals for their state and
county 4-H programs. 4-H
will be actively participating
in programs for 1981 - The
International Year of
Disabled Persons.
4-H Clubs are conducted
by volunteer adult leaders
with support from the county
4-H organizations and staff.
Membership is open to any
youth between the ages of 8
and 19 on non-distrimmatory
basis.
Any one who is interested
in becoming a leader in 4-H
should contact the 4-H office
for more information. Some
projects that 4-H offers in
clude gardening, com
munications, careers,
engmeermg, (bicycle, wood
working, electricity, etc),
home economics, em
bryology, and animal
science.
the large nonfed slaughter
supplements increased fed
cattle marketing. Choice fed
steer prices at Omaha may
average in the upper s6o’s
this fall before moving to the
low s7o’s in the first quarter
of pork supplies decline.
Prices may reach $BO next
spring before leveling off in
the second half of 1980
Continued large feeder
cattle movements and in
creased feeding costs will
hold down feeder cattle
prices through much of the
first quarter. Yearling
feeder cattle prices may
average in the mid-to-upper
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Sales, Service and Parts
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s7o’s until late in the winter
quarter before increasing to
the upper sBo’s as the spring
grazing season begins and
the forced cattle movement
declines.
Feeding margins are
likely to be most favorable
on cattle marketed in the
spring quarter as a result of
rising fed cattle prices at the
lower prices for feeder cattle
when they were placed on
feed.
Increased production co§ts
have offset much of the
recent rise in hog prices
Hog prices in the fourth
quarter are expected to
“THERMAL INSULATION SPECIALISr'
average about $46, up from
$36 a year ago and well
above $3l in the second
quarter.
Prices will strengthen as
pork production declines late
in the fourth quarter and
throughout 1981 in reaction
to large losses in 1979/80
Hog prices may average
near $5O in the first half of
next year and about cover
production costs. Prices
may increase to the upper
sso’s in the second half of the
year giving producers a
profit margin that could lead
to expanded breeding in
ventories late in 1981.