WASHINGTON, D.C. -
Ihe long, sharp beef herd
jquidation ended last year,
md with it the latest cattle
; ycle. But it’s far from
j er tam when the next ex
cision phase will begin, if it
a sn’t already, according to"
jSDA’s Economics,
Itatistics, and Cooperatives
lervice.
That may matter little
ight now to many producers
dll trying to regain sound
inancial footing after the
attle cycle’s dizzy, roller-
brown paper
I^l
NIBROC '
KOW-TOWLS
NIBROC KOWTOWLS
are the first choice of
dairymen for washing
udders Use individual
Kowtowl for each cow to
reduce chance of
spreading infection
HEAVY DUTY
GENERAL PURPOSE
BROOMS FOR FARM
& HOME USE!
ZIMMERMAN’S ANIMAL
HEALTH SUPPLY
3 mi W. of Ephrata,
Along Wood Corner Rd
RD #4 Box 140
Lititz, PA 17543
717-733-4466
PUBLIC SALE
of
Fine Antique Furniture
Fine Old Tools
SATURDAY, JULY 12
Sale to be held in the Rawlinsviiie Fire Hail.
Rawlinsville, Lane. Co., Pa. (Just south of the
Rawlinsviiie Hotel).
Walnut farm table w/lg. & sm. drawers. Fme plank
bottom settee w/ong. deco, made by C.C. Kauffman; 6
half spindle plank bottom chairs w/ong. deco, by C.C.
Kauffman; Cherry 6 leg dropleaf table & 2 cherry butt
end table. Pine: hanging cupboard, 2 blanket chests, 2
drawer night stand, wash stand, night stand, sm. chest
etc. 2 Hitchcock chairs w/orig. deco.; Windsor cheese
cutter rocker; Windsor plank chairs. Walnut: stand up
desk w/drawers, 4 leg dropleaf table, 2 blanket chests,
spool cabinet w/glass top, sq. table, tool chest, tool box,
yarn winder etc. Half spindle plank rocker; Bostom
plank rocker; fine deco, child’s sled w/goose heads.
Oak: fme Hoosier kitchen cabinet, Regulator wall
clock, rnd. poker table, sq. ext. table w/boards, 2 wall
telephones. Diamond dye cabinet, spool cabinet, wall
medicine cabinet, wash stand w/claw feet, side board,
spool cabinet w/legs & other fme oak furniture.
Grained chest; cobbler’s bench; rope bed w/accom
tops; cottage bed (deco.). Lots of other good furniture
not listed. Clocks; dough tray w/legs; butter worker
box; picture frames; old books including 1903
Biographical Anals by J.H. Berrs; old sale bills;
bayonet; 12g U.S. Arms Co. Belgium dbl. barrel
hammer shot gun. Iron 10 plate chunk stove & lots of
other good iron articles. Good articles m wood, tin,
brass, copper, etc. Dated G. & B. Conestoga wagon
u C * C ‘ F “ e Tools: signed goose wing ax, Wm.
Hagen post hole ax, Peng draw knife, D. Hagen shek
chisels, Bradey broad ax. Wells spoke shaver, Wm. &
Barnett draw knives, Wm. & D. Hagen broad axes, D.
Hagen dbl. stamped broad ax, Melhnger hatchet,
Bradey millstone axes & other fme signed tools.
, R.R.; sledge, shovel, oil can & torch. Tools to be sold
hrst. Furniture to be sold at 1:00. NO OUT OF STATE
CHECKS ACCEPTED. Food served.
I Sale by
I MR. & MRS. PAUL R. WESLEY
Howard Shaub Auctioneer 464-3541
and Roy C. Probst 464-3190
, feed, or weed out heifers?
coaster ride of the last few
years. However, the pause
-between liquidation and
expansion may be an ideal
time to consider how
producers can control herd
expansion once it gets
underway and prevent
another major downturn like
the one that just ended.
The first step toward an
answer is trying to figure
how much and how fast the
cow herd can grow without
overexpanding m relation to
consumer demand, says
ESCS.
With disposable incomes
rising in recent years,
consumers have been
spending more for meat.
However, the percentage of
income spent on meat has
remained fairly stable,
averaging 4 to 5 percent.
Consumers pick and choose
among the red meats and
poultry according the price
of each, which in the short
run depends on the relative
supplies of these meats.
Of course, beef supplies
aren’t determined solely by
cattle numbers. Other
factors include the
proportion of fed cattle, the
weight of finished cattle, and
the mix of steer and heifer
slaughter.
In the long run, however,
beef supplies rise and fall
with changes in the size of
the cow herd both beef and
dairy cows. And cow
numbers, in turn, increase
or decrease with changes in
cattle prices.
This complex, never en
ding circle of change in;
demand, supply, and prices
can be largely boiled down to
one simple and useful ratio :
the number of cows per 100
people. ■*..
This ratio, indicating the
at 9:00
supply-demand balance, has
av. i ippd ?4 5 cows ncr iOO
people since 1959. ,(Cow
numbers were higher in the
early 1950’s because of large
dairy herds.) A value above
24.5 would tend to indicate an
oversupply relative to
demand; a lower value, an
undersupply.
Multiplying this average
ratio by the population gives
some idea of the herd size
needed for the population
level. Historically, during
periods when,the cow-people
ratio was near 24.5, meat
and cattle prices were ac
ceptable to consumers and
producers alike.
In 1975, the number of
cows per 100 people rose to 27
a 20 year high. And, the
price of feeder cattle in
constant (1976) dollars fell to
its lowest level of the 30-year
period.
The cow herd was then
liquidated, and the number
of cows per 100 people
shrank to 22 by the start of
1980. In response, feeder
prices in constant,
nomnflated dollars rose
toward the level of the early
1970’5.
The U.S. population is now
about 220 million and is
forecast to rise to 241 million
by 1990.
Now, assuming that the
measuring stick of 24.5 cows
per 100 people is a reliable
indicator of the sup
ply/demand balance in the
1980’s, the cow herd could
grow from its present 48
million head to just under 60
million by 1990 without
overexpansion. In fact, the
cow herd could have been as
high as 54 million head at the
start of this year (instead of
-the actual 48 million)
without surpassing the
stable cow-people ratio of
24.5.
Based on the past herd
rebuilding rate and the
projected demand for beef,
cow numbers could rise to 56
or 57 million by the mid
1980’s before reaching the
point of overexpansion. Of
this total, 10 million would
probably be dairy cows
(based on projected milk
demand).
In the last 3 cattle cycles,
overexpansion began in 1953,
1964, and 1973. Right now,
ESCS livestock analysts
don’t expect an overex
pansion of the cow herd
before 1985. However, by
that tune it could be too late
for producers to prevent
excess growth of the cattle
herd.
In past cycles, cow
WOODLAND
AUCTION
SATURDAY, JULY 19
at 10 A.M.
along blacktop road between Fleetwood &
Dryville, near Fleetwood Fish & Game Assoc:
Bldg., Richmond Twp., Berks Co., PA.
Woodland consists of 35 acres fronting on state
blacktop road #06140. For inspection call for ap
pointment (215) 944-8522. Zoning is woodland con
servation. This is a nice location overlooking the
beautiful East Penn Valley.
Terms 10% on sale day, balance by September 15,
1980 or very attractive financing terms available at
10% interest rate to qualified buyer for details call
Auction Co. prior to July 15,1980.
Ordered by,
ARTHUR G. & GRACE M. RAUCH
Conducted by
Ralph W. Zettlemoyer Auction Co.
(215) 395-8084
numbers continued to in
crease another year or so
beyond that point due to the
large number of heifers
already being held. The
subsequent slaughter of
younger cattle and excess
breeding stock caused beef
production to mushroom,
resulting in lower prices and
losses to cattle producers.
The key here is to
recognize the potential for
oversupply well before it is
imminent, says ESCS. If
cattlemen were to begin
culling more cows and
holding fewer heifers for
herd replacement 1 to 2
years before an expected
trigger point, they could
slow growth in the cattle
herd to match consumer
demand for the rest of the
decade.
In other words, by no later
than 1983, it would be wise to
start closely monitoring
herd size and the rate at
which replacement heifers
are entering the herd. Of
course, unforseen shifts in
consumer demand and
productivity per cow could
alter the timetable.
For now, producers
considering herd expansion
face many of the same
difficult questions as last
summer. For example:
Should they sell their
replacement heifers now,
ensuring a good and im
mediate return’ Or do they
want to retain them for their
beef cowherd?
Obsiously, selling now will
produce a quick return. Last
year, feeder heifers
averaged about $B5 a cwt., so
a 500-lb. heifers sold for $425
as a feedlot placement.
Feeder prices will be about
the same or a little lower in
1980
If producers keep their
heifers as herd
replacements, they will of
course forego the immediate
return of selling them. But, a
heifer retamed will probably
produce 6 or 7 calves her
own replacement and 5 or 6
calves for sale plus her
value as a cull cow. At
current prices, this program
would produce annual
average receipts of $4OO to
$450 per brood cow.
Naturally, not all cattle
producers are in the same
financial situation right now.
Many have had a couple of
years to reestablish their
financial base. Grazing
conditions have been mostly
favorable, and there’s ex
cess grazing capacity in
many areas, ESCS points
out
Lancaster Farming, Saturday, June 28,1980—A43
On many crop-livestock
farms, however, producers
quit the cattle business
several years ago in favor of
cash grain production, with
at least part of the pasture
converted to crops. Those
who got out then are unlikely
to get back in now. Such
fanners face higher interest
costs as well as sharply
higher prices of replacement
cows $6OO to $BOO per head
compared with the $2OO to
$250 they got for their cows a
few years ago.
A unit of one bull and 20
cows, excluding
replacement heifers, could
easily cost $15,000 to $20,000
today. At an annual rate of 15
percent, the interest cost on
such a purchase would total
around $2,500-equal to the
value of 4 or 5 calves
Chianina field
day coming
WRIGHTSVILLE - The
Northeast Region of the
American Chianina
Association will be holding
the sth Annual Field Day and
Preview Show on Saturday,
August 16, announced James
Glass, president.
This year’s event will once
again be held at Lauxmont
Farms, Wrightsville, with
registration beginning at 8
a.m. and the field day events
starting at 9 a.m.
“I want to stress that all 4-
H and FFA youth are invited
to come and bring their
animals with them,” Glass
said. He added that the field
day will be a learning day for
all cattlemen, regardless of
breed affiliations.
Glass explained that for
those youth wishing to bring
their heifers and steers to
the field day, the following
rules apply:
—The Chianma heifers
must be accompanied by
either an ACA registration
certificate or application for
registration;
—They must have been
calved after January 1,1979.
—Chianma steers must
have been calved during
1979.
—Heifers and steers can
be percentage Chianinas,
from quarter-blood to full
blood.
on
burgers
\ J a P icni c
delight
LONG JOHN
BALMER
INSULATION
■R.D.S, Box 369
Manheim, PA
(717)665-4132
Cattle operators still in
business, however, can
expand without having to
raise a lot of outside capital.
Most have owned their land
for several years. Even if
they have not yet paid off
their loans, the interest rates
and the price they paid for
their land are both well
below today’s high going
prices.
While most cash costs will
continue rising, feeder cattle
prices are expected to
remain high enough to cover
them and still provide a
return for family labor and
management. Once a
producer has restored a
sound financial base, herd
expansion should bring
favorable returns for several
years, concludes ESCS.
—There is no entry fee, but
the entries are limited to two
steers per exhibitor. There
are no limits on the heifer
entries.
Glass pointed out the prize
money for this year’s field
day is double last year’s
because of the successful fun
auction held m 11*79. .
The day’s events will in
clude a judging contest, for
both the individual and
county groups, weight
guessing contest, and
showmanship competition.
There will also be a sequel
fun auction and a free
Chianma roast beef lunch.
Glass said he is hoping to
see a good turn out of young
people at the field day. He
pointed out that last year
there were over 800 par
ticipants, with 67 weathering
the rain to compete in the
showmanship contest.
“Come see the Chianinas,
and the gentlest bull in the
world—Lombard,” con
cluded Glass. He pointed out
there were more grand
champion Chiamna steers
nationwide in 1979 than any
other breed.
For more information on
the field day, contact James
E. Glass, 230 Harrison
Avenue, Glenside, PA 19038;
telephone 215/887-0409.
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