134—Lancaster Farming, Saturday, Juna 7,1980
Milk spiral
(Continued from Page A 22)
$164 per ton, up $l5 (10
percent) from a year ago,
but unchanged from mid-
March.
Meanwhile, prices of
major feed ingredients did
not increase as much as
dairy ration prices. In mid-
Apnl, No. 2 yellow corn at
Chicago was quoted at $2.61
per bushel, 3 percent above a
year ago, while soybean
meal (44 percent protein,
Decatur) averaged $153.50
per ton, down 18 percent.
Baled alfalfa hay in mid-
Apnl averaged $68.50 per
ton, up nearly 30 percent
from a year earlier.
It is still early to have any
firm indications of feed
supplies and pnces for the
next crop marketing year.
Farmers reported on April 1
that they intended to plant 82
million acres of com, about 3
percent more than in 1979,
with feed grain (corn,
sorghum, barley, and oats)
planting to total 120 million
acres, 2 percent above a
year earlier. Intended
planted acres of soybeans, at
71.3 million, are down less
than 1 percent from 1979.
With expected large en
ding stocks of soybeans and
large crop this fall, soybean
meal pnces are expected to
be below year-ago levels for
the rest of 1979/80. Mean
while, corn pnces are ex
pected to remain above last
year due to strong demand
and the removal of com
from the market through the
reserve program and
Government purchases. On
balance, dairy feed ration
costs are expected to be up,
due mainly to increased
processing and marketing
costs for feed.
The milk production ex
pansion, which started in
early 1979, is expected to
continue, at least through
the rest of 1980. First quarter
production was up 41. per
cent (2.9 percent on a daily
average basis), and second
quarter production will
likely be up 3 to 4 percent.
Thus, assuming little change
from second-half 1979, a gam
of 1.7 percent has already
been ensured for 1980
However, economic con
ditions should remain
relatively favorable for
dairymen m the second half
and milk output is expected
to be up somewhat.
Feed prices are not likely
to be significantly higher
than a year ago during
second-half 1980, while farm
milk prices will advance
from last year. Thus, milk
feed price relationships are
expected to be fairly ad
vantageous, implying that
more concentrates will be
fed per dairy cow. However,
nonfeed production costs are
expected to increase sub
stantially.
Milk output per cow was
up a substantial 4 percent
during the first quarter, and
is likely to be up 2 to 4 per
cent in the April-June
quarter. Year-to-year gains
m milk per cow during
second-half 1980 will likely
taper off as this year’s
output per cow is compared
with the large increases
posted in the last half of 1979.
Gram feeding rates at that
time were up nearly 7 per
cent, an mcrease not hkelv
to be matched this year. In
addition, last year’s very
favorable weather and the
resulting pasture conditions,
which were very conducive
to high milk output per cow,
are not likely to be repeated.
Dairy pastures as a percent
of normal, averaged 83
percent in 1979 for the April 1
to November 1 period.
compared with an average
of 78 percent for 1969-78. This
year April 1 and May 1
ratings were equal to the
1969-78 average.
Dairy cow numbers during
early 1980 have exhibited an
unusual pattern changing
little from January, and on
average have equaled year
earher levels. Dairymen will
probably return to more
normal culling rates, and
thus the 1980 decline in cow
numbers may be similar to
the 1/2 percent decline in
1979.
Dairy farmers marketed a
record 121 billion pounds of
milk m 1979, up 2 billion (1.8
percent) from 1978. Last
year’s marketings were 9
billion pounds larger than
1973, the low point in
marketings for the 1970’5.
Whole milk sold to plants
and dealers continued ac
count for nearly all ot total
milk production 96.7
percent in 1979, compared
with 96.5 percent in 1978 and
93.5 percent a decade
earlier. Meanwhile, sales of
farm-separated cream
contmud to decline, down 22
million pounds (21 percent)
from 1978, and less than 0.1
percent of total milk
production. Direct sales to
consumers were nearly
unchanged from 1978 and
continued to be only 1-1/4
percent of milk output.
Use of milk on farms
where produced m 1979 at 2.5
billion pounds was 2 percent
of total production, down 0.2
billion from 1978 and 1.8 ‘
billion from a decade ago.
The use of milk on farms has
continued to decline because
of fewer people on farms and
the increased use of milk
replacers m feeding calves.
Milk eligible for the fluid
market (Grade A) in 1979
was 83 percent of all milk
sold to plants and dealers,
unchanged from 1978 and up
from two-thirds in 1960. In
recent years, the percentage
of milk eligible for fluid use
has grown about 1 per
centage point per year, but
1979 broke that trend. In the
past, the growth in the share
of fluid grade milk has
resulted from a decline in
total Grade B production,
while Grade A production
has tended to mcrease. Some
of the increased Grade A
production has been due to a
conversion from Grade B to
Grade A.
In 1979, total Grade B milk
marketings were up 0.4
billion pounds, an increase of
2 percent. California doubled
its marketings of
manufacturing grade milk.
As in the past, more than
three-fifths of the 20.5 billion
pounds of Grade B milk sold
during 1979 was in
Wisconsin, Minnesota, and
lowa.
Farm "Calendar
(Continued from Page A 10)
farm, Elizabethtown;
7 :30p.m.
Tuesday, June 10
MD Institute of Cooperative
Education; Summitt
Lake, MD.
Lancaster 4-H Dairy Club
meeting at Robert Rohrer
farm; Lancaster; 7:30
p.m.
Lancaster County Holstein
Club barn meetings; at 1
p.m. at Russel L. Kline
farm; R 2 Denver; 7:30
p.m. at Neff Bros. Farm;
R2Ronks.
Wednesday, June 11
Swine meeting; Cumberland
County Extension Office,
Carlisle; Bp.m.
Fruitgrowers meeting;
Worby’s Nursery; old
Route 15 North of York
Springs; 6.30 p.m.
Lancaster 4-H strawberry
roundup at the Farm and
Home Center, Lancaster;
9 a.m.
Thursday, June 12
PA Flower growers short
course; Penn State
through Friday; Keller
Conference Center.
Friday, June 13
NACD conference;
Washington, D.C.;
through Saturday; rural
conservation.
PA Egg Marketing
Association; Sheraton-
Conestoga Village;
Lancaster; social hour
p.m.; meeting 7 p.m.
Saturday, June 14
Adams County Dairy
Princess Pageant;
BiglerviUe High School;
Biglerville; 8 p.m.
MD Junior Angus preview;
Montgomery County
Fairgrounds; Gaither
sburg, Maryland.
Dairy farm openhouse;
Kanach Bros.; Route 514
near Reaville, New
Jersey; lp.m.-sp.m.
Berks County basic sheep
skills clime; Leesport
Auction.
There was considerable
change in the production of
many manufactured dairy
foods during the 70s. Most
striking is the 86.5 percent
increase in total cheese
output from 1.99 billion
pounds in 1969 to 3.71 billion
pounds in 1979. Butter
production was down 11.9
percent during the
and there was a 37.5 percent
drop in the production of
nonfat dry milk for human
food. Ice cream production
was up 6.8 percent