Economist predicts demand for com, soybeans
DEKALB, 111. - “Despite
four wonderful crops m the
last four years, the world has
built no surplus of gram,”
said John Schnittker, former
USDA chief economist and
past under-secretary of
agriculture, as he spoke
during the recent annual
meeting of shareholders of
DeKalb Agßesearch, Inc.
Schnittker said, “A
situation like we had in the
mid 1970 s high grain
prices and shrinking
reserves can easily follow
the four best crops the world
has ever had, if weather
conditions turn a little sour
in two of the large grain
producing t 'gions.
“The good crops have
generated a rapid increase
in consumption and even
♦hough production this year
Qyas as high as we could
expect, we anticipate about
30 million tons of grain to be
taken out of the world
stocks.”
Schnittker explained how
five countries or regions
the U.S., China, all of
Europe, the U.S.S.R. and
India with less than half
the world’s population,
produce three-fourths of the
world’s grain each year.
Schnittker said, “Because
grain production is
dominated by these five
regions, it is possible to
accurately measure and
forecast world grain
production.”
Any major change in the
world food situation
surplus or shortage has
been a result of a large crop
Q/jjjjjjj) fertilizer s P feader O^cgndltion^r 6 '
r
(yicon)acrobat hay rake
failure or of a very high yield
m one or two of the regions.
In 1972-73 it wasn’t only
Russia, but also China that
harvested poor crops,
driving commodity prices
skyward, Schnittker said.
“Grains and oilseeds
together represent two
thirds of all human food.
This is true partly because
people like the Chinese and
the Asians consume mostly
rice, almost entirely
vegetable foods and very
little meat.
countries, grains and
oilseeds are terribly im
portant. They supply a large
part of the diet of cattle, hogs
and poultry,” he said.
Schnittker said the U.S.
will export about 90 million
metric tons of grain in 1979-
80, giving the country a 53-55
percent share of the world’s
export of grain.
The second closest gram
exporting nation is Canada,
with only 11 percent of the
total world grain exports.
Australia and Argentina
are the next largest grain
exporters. Each has a seven
percent share of total world
grain exports.
Schnittker explained the
U.S. has absorbed any in
creases in the world’s
demand for grain and
oilseeds for the last two
years.
He said the United States
has had a reasonably ef
fective rail and barge
system and because there
was excess capacity at the
ports, we have been able to
meet the demand.
“Even though we have
gained immensely by having
a good rail, barge and port
system we are getting to the
end of the line,” Schnittker
said. “Somewhere down the
road, whether it’s one year
or three years, we have to do
quite a lot to improve our
transport and loading
system, if we are to continue
to meet the demand for our
agricultural products. ”
In addition to predicted
difficulties m delivering the
nation’s excess grain to
market, Schnittker warned
NEW YORK, N.Y. - The
National Advisory Com
mittee on Meat and Poultry
Inspection supported the
U.S. Department of
Agriculture’s proposal to
offer a voluntary quality
control inspection program
in plants were meat and
poultry is further processed.
Committee members,
representing the scientific
community, state govern
ments, industrys, and
consumer groups, said it was
tune to modernize processed
products inspection by
implementing a voluntary
quality control program.
Under voluntary quality
control, USDA approves a
plant’s quality control
system and then bases
compliance with federal
safety and labeling
requirements on the plant’s
own quality control data.
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of shrinking world grain
reserves.
“Despite good crops this
year m practically all of the
countries of the world, 1 ex
cept Russia and India, world
gram production has not
exceeded a gradual increase
trend established over the
past 20 years.
“A tremendous
momentum for the
sumption of grain
begun,” he said.
“Most of the countries in
the world have increased
their livestock; production
and set new targets in their
Vol. inspection
Donald Houston, ad
ministrator for USDA’s Food
Safety and Quality Service,
said special technical
assistance would be
available for small
processing operations to
prevent larger processors
from gaming a competitive
edge.
Houston also said
measures would be taken to
safeguard confidential
company data and that
USDA would reconsider
having the program’s logo
displayed on products in
addition to other official
USDA stamps. These
specific concerns on quality
control were raised by
committee members.
At the meeting, Houston
and meat and poultry in
spection program officials
also reviewed:
GIDEON L. FISHER
RD 1, Box 108
Ronks, Pa. 175?2
Lancaster Farming, Saturday, February 2,1980—C21
five-year plans for more
meat, more milk and more
eggs.”
Due to increasing demand
and shrinking reserves,
Schnittker expressed op
timism about com prices in
1980. He was mildly
pessimistic about soybean
prices.
He explained that
domestic and foreign
demand has been sufficient
to prevent a major collapse
in prices after the record
harvest. If current
projections for soybean
harvests m Argentina and
con
has
a possibility
—the proposed new uses of
proteolytic enzymes;
—the status of net weight
regulations;
—USDA’s study on
mechanically deboned
poultry;
—the funding and
legislative status of federal-
How to prevent
NORRISTOWN - In fall
and winter, rabbits
frequently chew the bark of
young trees and shrubs,
occasionlly to the extent that
the plant is girdled and dies.
Bark of seedlings and
young saplings is a natural
winter rabbit food. To
prevent damage, Paul N.
Reber, Montgomery County
Agent, says it is necessary
either to keep the rabbits
away from the trees or make
the bark distasteful to them.
Brazil materialize, prices
could be substantially lower
in the first half of 1980,
Schnittker surmised.
Turning to farm income,
Schnittker said, “Farmers
have been doing fairly well
for the last couple of years,
but not as well as they would
like.
“In terms of real dollars,
farmers across the country
have an income this year of
$lO billion, 40 percent lower
than in 1973, which was a
record mcome year for
farmers,” he concluded.
state inspection programs;
—USDA’s actions to
control PCB con
taminations;
—the status of nitrites;
and
—the comprehensive food
labeling proposal.
rabbit damage
Mechanical guards such
as hardware cloth cylinders,
or wraps of heavy
weatherproof paper or
aluminum foil will often be
the most satisfactory for the
homeowners
Some chemical repellents
give satisfactory protection
but they are not always
available in small quantities
at local outlets. Reber
suggests using repellents
containing thiram and a
chemical sticker.
stop
cow kicking
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