ElB— Lancaster Farming, Saturday, January 5,1980
Cattlemen expect 3 percent drop in U.S. beef productio
DENVER, Colo. - U.S.
beef production in 1980 is
now estimated to decrease
by about three percent from
the 1979 total, the National
Cattlemen’s Assn, said
Monday.
Total cattle numbers and
basic breeding herds are
now increasing after the
prolonged liquidation period
of the 10-year cattle cycle,
NCA noted, but beef
production cannot increase
again until the offspring of
the additional cows are fed
oat for market.
Economists with Cattle-
Fax, the market analysis
service associated with
NCA, are estimating that
U.S. beef output in 1980 will
total 20.4 billion pounds on a
carcass weight basis,
compared with 21.1 billion in
1979 and 24 billion in 1978
Total per capita beef sup
plies in 1980 will be about 103
pounds on a carcass weight
basis (76 pounds, retail
weight), compared with 106
lbs. in 1979.
“Beef prices no doubt will
fluctuate substantially
during the year, just as
prices of commodities like
beef have fluctuated in the
past,” Cattle-Fax said.
“However, it now appears
that, for the year as a whole,
the retail price average may
be up by around 10 to 15%
from the average of $2.25 per
pound for Choice beef ui
1979 About 5% out of the 15%
might be a result of the
smaller beef supplies, with
the rest attributed to in
flation and rising costs of
energy and of processing
and distributing food ”
While beef output will be
down somewhat from 1979,
production of other meats
will continue large, par
ticularly during the first part
of the year, when both pork
and poultry output will
exceed comparable 1978
levels.
“With smaller total cattle
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Ephrata Exit New Rt 222
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turn left unto
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numbers and smaller beef
supplies,” said NCA
President Lauren Carlson,
“the economic situation for
most cattlemen has im
proved over what it was
during the 1974-77 period.
However, costs have in
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Catawissa, PA
717-356-2323
ACE JURISTA, INC.
Tunkhannock, PA
717-836-2610
ZECHMAN’S FARM SUPPLY & EQUIP. RAYMOND C. PICKERING
Selmsgrove, PA Thompson, PA
717-374-7231 717-756-2646
creased very rapidly, and
many cattle feeders, for
example, have recently been
losing money again.
“The size of the nation’s
cattle herd now appears to
be increasing, and total
cattle numbers on Jan. 1,
MF
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&
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EARDTBIRD=)
BONUS DAYS -
1980, should be up by about
two percent from a year
earlier However, it appears
that the rebuilding phase of
the cattle cycle is being
slowed significantly by in
flation, rapidly rising costs,
the tight supply of money
SWARTZ GARAGE
Richfield, PA
717-694-3861
REX RUSSEL EQUIPMENT
Rome, PA
717-247-7858
and high interest rates.
“In view of the current
economic situation and
outlook, many cattlemen are
unable to expand or to
reenter the cattle business,
and many lenders as well as
producers and potential
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Pitman, PA
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717-538-5555
CUSTOM
CERTi
worth up
I'-i.
‘<l'
iariy
BONUS DAYS
EARLY BIRD
BONUSDAYS
producers are hesitatii
increase investments i
reinvest in the beef busi
If this situation contu
the growth in beef 01
during the next few j
may be less than
previously anticipated.”
M«u«
BONUS DAYS
MP
Massey Ferguson
n