WASHINGTON, D.C. -
The value of U.S.
agricultural exports is ex
pected to increase by about
20 percent in fiscal year 1980
to a record $3B billion, ac
cording to Thomas R.
Saylor, associate ad
ministrator of the U.S.
Department of Agriculture’s
Foreign Agricultural Ser
vice. Last fiscal year’s
exports were valued at $32
billion.
Speaking at the depart
ment’s annual Outlook
conference here, Saylor said
volume also will be up, with
shipments of wheat, feed
grains and soybeans, the
leading U.S. export com
modities, totaling more than
130 million tons, compared
with 112 million in fiscal
1979.
He said the U.S.
agricultural trade surplus,
pegged at $15.8 billion m
fiscal 1979, could exceed $2O
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Record ag exports forecast for 1980
billion, with agricultural
imports for 1980 forecast at
$17.5 billion.
Department forecasters
expect most of the export
growth to come from higher
prices and increased ton
nage of gram shipments,
Saylor said. Soybean export
volume is projected to rise
by about 10 percent, but
lower prices are likely to
curtail gams in value.
At least marginal gams m
value are expected in all
exports categories.
Noting that a sluggish
world economy, inflation
and uncertain energy and
monetary outlooks cloud the
picture, he said the bulk of
the export growth is ex
pected to be in the
developmg countries, where
economic gains should ex
ceed those of developed
countries, and the Com
munist countries, were food
politics can outweigh
Johnßisser'
Assistant Manager
Agn Loan Corp
Bachelor s degree in
agricultural economics
and business
economics in import
decisions.
Saylor said the U.S.
transportation system will
be severely tested to move
the volume of exports
projected for the year, ad
ding the logistical problems
are hampering export ex
pansion in Canada and
Australia, despite their
ample stocks of gram.
He said U.S. production of
coarse grain and wheat in
1979/80 is estimated to be up,
with foreign production
projected down and
utilization up.
“In this situation, ” he
said, “our forecast for 1980 is
that U.S. gram exports will
mcrease by 15 to 20 million
tons while those of other
exporting countries will be
virtually unchanged. We
expect our feed grain ex
ports to be up by 10 to 12
million tons and those of
wheat by about 6.”
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bank in the state
J Markßushong Robert Bucher
Assistant Manager President and Manager
Agn Loan Corp Agn Loan Corp
30 year owner and operator Raised on a dairy farm'
of 130 acre dairy and fourteen years of agricultural
poultry farm lending experience
He said the outcome
depends on several factors,
the biggest of which is the
Soviet Union’s response to
the substantial shortfall in
Soviet gram production.
Saylor said, “ The final
level of Soviet unports, the
ratio of wheat to com, and
how muph the Soviets buy
from sources other than the
Umted States is still to be
determined by the Soviets
themselves and by the ef
fective limits of their in
ternal transportation.”
He noted the two countries
have agreen on a supply
level from the United States
of up to 25 million tons of
wheat and com for the
current October/September
year. Last year the Soviet
Union imported 15.7 million
tons from the U.S.
Other factors that will
affect the U.S. export out
come, he said, include
whether India’s disap-
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Commonwealth
National Bank
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Member FDIC
Regina Fitzpatrick
Agricultural
Customer Representative
Lancaster Farming, Saturday, November 171979
pointing grain harvest sends
it mto the world market for
gram, the foreign exchange
position of midddle income
developing countries,
China’s response to what is
reported to be its second
straight record grain har
vest, the possibility of
subsidized European
Community grain exports,
and how Japan handles its
huge rice surplus.
Saylor cited the
Multilateral Trade
Negotiations that were
completed last spring as
another factor that can have
a major influence on trade,
but mostly m the years
beyond 1980.
“Economic strain in key
trading countries around the
world will test the strength
of the international trading
system,” he continued.
“In this regard, the
agricultural codes that were
negotiated in the MTN can
help maintain the necessary
confidence that a system
based on respect for a
common set of rules can
work.”
While the codes won’t end
the use of nontariff barriers,
he said, “They will provide a
foundation from which to
build, over time, a body of
international law that can
reduce, and we can hope,
some day eliminate nontariff
barriers as a major im
pediment to agricultural
trade.”
He said it’s up to the
United States to provide the
leadership to make sure that
the MTN agreements work.
4-H Club
discusses
beef
constitution
FLEMINGTON, N.J. - The
business discussed at the
Hunterdon County 4-H Super
Steers last meeting per
tained to the re-establishing
of the Hunterdon County 4-H
Beef Constitution. Dates and
tunes for the 4-H calf sales
were reported and an
unofficial “election” was
held for those 4-H members
whom the club felt might be
possible “leadership and
citizenship award” can
didates.
Elections of club officers
for the 1979-1980 4-H year will
be held at the next meeting.
It was reported that some of
the clubs members are
planning to study artificial
insemination and embryo
transplants in cattle.
One new member, Brian
Gilpin of Califon, was
welcomed to the Club.
The next meeting will be
on December 2 at 7 P.M. al
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