110
—Lancaster Fanning, Saturday, May 12,1979
Ag exports
(Continued from Page 99)
In addition, a number of oil producers individually have
announced steep price increases since supplies of Iranian
oil were disrupted.
While the OPEC oil price increase will curtail the
buying power of some nonmember countries, the overall
effect on U.S. agricultural exports is expected to be slight.
EC and Japan
Economic growth in the two largest markets the
European Community (EC) and Japan is expected to
exceed the 2-pcr cent forecast for the U.S. in 1979. This,,
coupled with the depreciation of our dollar, is spurring our
exports.
Larger sales are also expected to the OPEC countries,
whose capacity to import is increasing sharply as a result
of the oil price hike.
Economic growth for the developing countries as a
group is projected at annual rate of over five per cent in
1979. Only a few, like Zambia, will face major financing
constraints.
Major U.S. markets - especially Korea, Taiwan, and
Mexico - have favorable growth the payments prospects.
Commodity outlook
As usual, the outlook for U.S. exports varies, depending
on the commodity. Export values are expected to swell for
most commodity groups, with oilseeds a particularly big
gainer.
Following a 30-per cent volume gain in fiscal 1978,
soybean exports are expected to increase another tenth
this year—to a record of over 21 million tons. Sales value
will also rise to an high of $8,7 billion.
The surge in sales this year is the result of strong global
demand, plus some tightening in world supplies as poor
weather has lowered prospects for Brazil’s soybean crop.
One of the key elements in the forecast of U.S. soybean
shipments is a projected 5-per cent increase in prospec
tive exports to the EC, reflecting their continued push to
expand livestock output This increase follows on the heels
of a 28-percent gain in fiscal 1978.
Soviets need U.S. soybeans
In addition, the Soviet Union had another below-average
sunflowerseed crop last year and is expected to turn to the
U.S. for over 1 million tons of soybeans to fill the gap.
U.S. feed grain exports are now expected to top last
year’s record despite the sham increase in world
production and a buildup in world stocks.
Exports during October-January were about 1 million
tons above those of a year earlier. Key factors in the
market this year are: the opening of the Chinese market
for 3% million tons of U.S. com; larger than anticipated
exports to the EC as result of their continued buildup in
hog and poultry production; and exports to the USSR well
above the minimum 3-million-ton level set in the grain
agreement.
This latter reflects continued expansion in the Soviets’
livestock and poultry industries and a decline in their 1978
com crop. ~ ***
Stiff comnetitian for wheat
U.S. wheat exports in fiscal 1979 will be down about six
per cent The reason: Last year’s record world output of
436 million tons reduced demand and increased com
petition in major markets.
Major factors in the wheat export market include a
likely cut of 10 to 15 per cent in sales to the EC because of
that area’s record 1978 crop and some slippage in sales to '
the USSR in light of that country’s record wheat harvest.
Our wheat exports this year are likely to total little more
than the minimum 3 million tons required by the US
USSR grain agreement.
However, a new market for wheat in China will help
offset some of the smaller sales elsewhere. The Chinese
are in the world market for about 9 million metric tons of
wheat to use for upgrading diets and stockpiling. The U.S.
will probably supply about 3 million tons of that total.
Big gains
Exports of most other commodities are expected to gain
ignificantly in fiscal 1979.
UJS. cotton exports should remain very large. Despite a
laller crop last year, our export supplies are adequate
d U.S. prices are competitive on the world market
orld import demand is expected to remain strong, and
2 oduction in several other countries has been disrupted
I y bad weather. Thus, U.S. export volume should remain
\ ?rv larve
For animal products, higher prices are espected to push
BANVEL
Distributed
By
Poultry and egg shipments are expected to continue to
expand, with sales increasing to the Caribbean, Japan,
Hong Kong, Singapore, and the EC. However, the value of
our dairy sales continues its downward trend because of
low prices on the world market for nonfat dry milk.
For tobacco, a 6-per cent volume increase isin prospect
Stocks of US leaf are small in many countries, and the
depreciation of the US dollar has restrained price in
creases to importers. Larger sales are forecast to Japan,
the EC, Thailand, and South Korea.
Fruits and vegetables should score some gain in export
value, although volume could slip for several items. US
exports of citrus and dried fruits are likely to fall because
of reduced US production and increased competition in
the EC from Mediterranean producers.
The value gain for meat and meat products alone
represents over three-fourths of the total expected in
crease in our import bill. Reduced US beef output is
prompting larger exports on our part, while world market
prices for meats have been boosted by the tighter
worldwide supplies and the stronger demand that has
occurred because of gains in real income.
If the current forecast of US exports and imports is near
the mark, the agricultural trade surplus exports less
imports will increase again this-year. It might total $l5
billion, compared with $13.4 billion in fiscal 1978.
A firm, compact duster of
small flower buds, with none
opened enough to show the
bright -yellow flower, is a
good indication of
broccoli, now one of the most
popular vegetables in this
country. Bud dusters should
be dark green or sage green
and stems should not be too
thick or tough, USDA
research indicates.
Firm or hard heads of
cabbage that are heavy for ■
their size are usually
recommended when buying
cabbage for any purpose.
Outer leaves should be a
good green or red color
(dependingon type) and free
from serious blemishes.
Discard the outer “wrap
per” leaves. Too many on a
head are wasteful, says
USDA.
export value* to a record $3 s billion, beet and slaughter
cattle exports to Canada are expected to increase because
of reduced 'Canadian production and the easing of
restrictions regarding chemical residues. Also, we should
sell more beef to Japan, where demand for meat con
tinues to outstrip domestic production capacity.
Poultry and eggs
Meat and meat products
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