—Lancaster Farming, Saturday, December 2,1978
28
USD A releases 1979 outlook !
WASHINGTON, D.C. -
U.S. agriculture will enter
1979 with large grain sup
plies and relatively low
livestock feed costs. Com
prices are forecast to
average $2.00 to $2.15 for the
1978/79 season, according to
a USDA report released
recently. These prices are
expected to encourage
continued expansion of
cattle feeding. However,
nonfed beef slaughter will be
less and the total beef supply
in 1979 is forecast to be about
5 per cent below 1978.
Continued favorable profit
margins for pork and broiler
production are encouraging
expansion in 1979.
Overall, the red meat and
poultry production for 1979
should equal this year’s 51
billion pounds. Continued
growth in consumer incomes
and strong retail demand in
1979 will be reflected in
further increases in
livestock and livestock
product prices, especially
beef prices.
Rural A
WASHINGTON. D.C. -
After decades of pop ilation
loss and economic decline,
rural America progressed
significantly in improving its
social and economic con
dition during the 1970’5,
according to a new
publication released by the
U.S. Department of
Agriculture.
Gardening tips given
MEDIA Now that your
vegetable garden is finished
for the season don’t be
tempted to sit down and rest,
because there are sever
things you can do now to
prepare for next year’s
garden, advises James J.
McKeehen, Delaware
County Extension
agricultural agent.
Make sure your garden is
covered for the winter. If you
haven’t planted a cover
Farm
census
shortened
WASHINGTON, D.C. - The
United States questionaires
will soon be mailed to the
nation’s fanners and ran
chers to arrive in January.
Due to complaints horn
farmers’, the forms have
been reduced from the
previous 22 pages to four or
five pages, this year.
The census questionaires
have been advanced one
year to phase with the
ten year cycle of other
economic censuses. The
information which has been
collected since 1840, is
limited to land ownership,
land use, crops, poultry, and
livestock, total value of
products sold and operator
and farm management
characteristics.
This year the census will
also include a question
concerning land held under
foreign ownership. Answers
will help to measure the
increase of farm land being
held by foreign interests.
Foreign demand for U.S.
farm products is also ex
pected to continue strong in
1978/79. Increasing livestock
numbers and some
rebuilding of reduced
foreign grain stocks may
further strengthen export
demand. Exports for 1978/79
should be near the record
1977/78 volume, with a
moderate increase in value
anticiapted.
The farm economy is
exhibiting more strength
than expected as 1978 draws
to a close. Increased feeding
of livestock, sustained large
export volume, and heavy
placement of grain m the
farmer-owned reserve have
combined to offset the price
depressing effect of record
large grain supplies.
The higher than an
ticipated grain prices, along
with strong livestock and
poultry prices, have in
creased USDA’s forecast of
ending year prices for farm
commodities. Prices
received by farmery in
merica examined
“Rural Development
Perspectives,” prepared by
the Economics, Statistics,
and Cooperatives Service
(ESCS), contains articles on
many aspects of rural
development, including
population trends, women in
the rural labor force, rural
crop, cover the garden with
old leaves to serve as a
mulch and then next spring
rake off most of the leaves.
Have your soil tested now.
A soil test will tell you the
fertilizer and lime needs of
your garden. Contact the
Delaware County
Cooperative Extension
Service at the Toal Building,
Media for a soil sample
mailing kit costing $3. (50
cents additional, to cover
mailing costs if it is sent to
you). The kit includes in
structions for taking a soil
sample. Soil scientists at the
Pennsylvania State
University will analyze the
sample, then send you the
proper recommendations.
Start thinking about the
vegetables you’d like to
plant next year. Learn from
trial and error in this year’s
garden. Select old faithfuls,
and decide whqt new
varieties and kings to try. If
you follow such an end-of
season program, your
garden will be in good shape,
and you’ll be raring to go
when the new seed catalogs
come out.
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ENGINE CONTROL
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Specializing in GM
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ENGINES FOR SALE
320 Waukesha gas, fan to
fly wheel
383 cu in Chrysler,
power unit w/clutch
471 Detroit Power unit
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RD3 Ephrata, PA 17522
Ph; 717-733-3890
October through December
are now expected to be 1 to 2
per cent higher than the
third quarter level and 20 per
cent higher than fourth
quarter 1977 prices.
Cash receipts in the fourth
quarter play a major role in
determing annual farm
income since crop
marketings are seasonally
large during this period. The
recent increases in com
modity prices also suggest
that 1978 net farm income
may be about $1 billion
higher than earlier ex
pected. Net farm income
before inventory adjustment
is now forecast at around $26
billion, compared with $20.1
billion in 1977.
Led by strong gams for
wheat, soybeans, feed
grains, and oilseed products,
1977/78 (October-Septemb
er) farm commodity exports
reached $27.3 billion, a
record value, while volume
increased 19 per cent over
the previous year. With
crease slightly more than 6
per cent. Although much
housing and volunteers in on Jf! 1 ®
rural communities. 1979 are highly
Although agriculture time, cash
remains the major industry recei Pt s from crops are
in many rural counties, over-' 1 ex Pected to remain near 1978
66 per cent of rural residents levek t as httle change is
have more than 90 per cent ex P ec * e d m average prices
of their employment in other or . v< d um ®- Livestock
industries, reports ESCS J ecei Pt s » however, are
demographer Calvin Beale £ oreca st to increase by about
in one of the main articles. 7 P e F Th® B ® larger cash
Rural women are joining rece ipts, with in
the labor force in greater j ncome > will
members, accounting for the °“ the higher production
vast majority of non-metro e^H e ? ses ' Net farm income
job growth in the 1960’5. wiU thus remam near the $26
Expanding opportunities, ~~ on now es timated for
changing family size and 1978 ‘ ~
structure, inflation and a Considerable uncertainty
changing attitude toward surrounds this forecast. The
female employment outside linal results will depend on
the home all help explain the m any domestic and foreign
rapid growth of rural s upply and demand factors
women’s participation in the unfold during
labor force. 1978 - 17115 uncertainty is
Rural housing conditions eflect ®d in the
improved dramatically from •9F 1 ® cas * ran § e to $29
1950 to 1975, as the per- blUlon -
centage of households in
substandard units dropped
from 59 to 8 per cent. Yet 1.9
million rural households
lived in substandard housing
in 1975, mainly low-income
people, report
agricultural economists.
agricultural imports of $13.9
billion, the agricultural
trade surplus increased to
$13.4 billion.
The stronger commodity
prices, along with rising
marketing costs, portend
further increases in food
prices. Retail prices in the
fourth quarter will be 1 per
cent higher than third
quarter prices and 11% per
cent above a year earlier.
Food prices for all of 1978
will average about 10 per
cent above 1977.
Cost of production and
marketing will further in
crease next year, reflecting
rising wage rates, nonfarm
input prices, transportation
rates, and higher outlays for
taxes, insurance, and in
terest. The recently an
nounced anti-inflation
program, including
monetary and fiscal
measures, is designed to
moderate cost increases in
the coming year, even
though higher short-term
interest rates will raise some
costs.
Farm production expenses
in 1979 are expected to in-
The anticipated supply,
demand and marketing cost
conditions in the food sector
point to further increases in
retail food prices during
1979. However, smaller
increases in farm prices are
expected next year, and cost
ESCS
increases for marketing
services, reflecting the
general inflation rate, in
dicate that retail food prices
will average about 7 Vz per
cent above 1978. Grocery
store- food prices are ex
pected to increase about 7
per cent, and prices for
away-from-home eating to
average about 8 per cent
over the 1978 levels.
If food supplies should be
larger than expected and
wage and other marketing
costs are slowed by anti
inflation measures, the food,
price increase could be as
low as 6 per cent. Con
versely, adverse weather
causing smaller .supplies of
food, and higher marketing
costs would increase prices,
possibly as much as 10 per
cent.
The farm value of a
market basket of
domestically produced foods
is expected to increase 7%
per cent next year. However,
the increase could range
between 5 and 10 per cent,
considering the usual un-
And these Dealers
have ’em for you.
Eugene Ulmer
R.D #1 Box 137
Montoursville, PA 17754
Conway Smith & Sons
R.D. #3 Box 17
New Oxford, PA 17350
Ag Services
RD. #7
Gettysburg. PA 17325
Nelson L. Rohrer
1165 Hunsecker Road,-
Lancaster, PA 17601
Marlin Brubaker
R.D. #3 Box 727
Halifax, PA 17032
Samuel W. Musser, Jr.
RD. #3
Shippensburg, PA 17257
Royster Company
500 Running Pump Road
Lancaster, PA 17601
Brown & Rea, Inc.
Box 248
Atglen, PA 19310
Ben K. Stoltzfus
Hollander Road R D, #1
Gordonville, PA 17529
Somerset Farmers Supply
Somerset, PA 15557
0 CARGILL SEEDS
P.O. Box 38, Marietta, PA 17547
Burt Lamens - Sales Manager
Office 717-426-1961
Home 717-362-9033
certainties surrounding
commodity markets.
Nevertheless, this increase
will be well below the 17-per
cent estimated for 1978,
barring very unusual con
ditions.
Marketing spreads/
representing the costs in
curred for processing,
transporting, and
distributing food products,
are also expected to average
about 7% percent higher for
1979 than in 1978. The
spreads could vary by a
percentage point around this
expected value, depending
on the response to anti
inflation measures.
Prices for imported foods
and fishery products (not
originating on U.S. farms) ■
will be slightly less than the
expected increase for
domestic foods. Coffee'
prices are expected to
decline further, and a
moderation in prices of other
imported foods and fish is
expected, relative to in
creases of the past few
years."
Chester H. Soltys, Jr.
876 New Schuylkill Road
Spring City, PA 19475
Howard L. Furches
RD #180x332
Peach Bottom, PA 17563
Henry F. Barley
R.D. #2
Lancaster, PA 17603
Lester Herren
R.D. #1
York Springs, PA 17372
Northampton Seed Co.
Box 51
Bath, PA 18014
John M. Harnish
1036 Beaver Valley Pike
Lancaster, PA 17602
Three M Farm Service
15011 Marlboro Pike
Upper Marlboro; MD 20870
Martins Elevator, Inc.
RD #680x348
Hagerstown, MD 21740
John M. Gehman
R D. #1 Box 11A
Kmzer, PA 17535
il