—Lancaster Farming, Saturday, December 10,1977
90
Lower market prices
seen for poultry and eggs
WASHINGTON, D.C. -
Prospects for the egg,
broiler, and turkey in
dustries in 1978 point to in
creased production and
lower market prices.
However, with feed prices
lower than a year earlier
broiler and turkey producers
may show a small profit
during much of the year. On
the other hand, egg
producers may be in a cost
price squeeze by next spring.
So says William Cathcart,
agricultural econonist for
the Economic Research
Service of USDA.
Production costs for eggs,
broilers, and turkeys likely
will remain lower than a
year earlier at least through
the first half of 1978. Feed
costs during January-June
1977 accounted for about
two-thirds of the total cost of
producing eggs and more
than 70 per cent of thecost of
producing broilers and
turkeys. The lower cost of
feed ingredients should more
than offset the rise in the
cost of other production
items.
- Expected growth in the
general economy "and a
continued uptrend in con
sumers’ incomes will help
bolster the demand for
poultry meat and eggs, in
1978. Also, gains in total
employment combined with
some easing in- unem
ployment will be a plus
factor for the poultry and
egg industries.
i Poultry producers |n 1978
will face stronger com
petition from larger supplies
of j red meats. The mix will
also be different. Beef
supplies are likely to be
below 1977 levels with larger
fed beef output being more
than offset by reduced non
fed beef production. PorK
supplies are expected to be
well above 1977, especially
during the second half of
1978.
The Outlook
for Broilers
Broiler meat production in
1978 is expected to continue
to expand. Larger supplies
of competing meats and
broilers will result in 1978
BROILERS
Break-Even Cost and Market Price
C PER LB
lrol)« ptio»»
35 -V_ / X
Break even cost *
25 I I I • ■!■■■! I-'.L .
1974 1975 1978 1977
QUARTERLY DATA
•MW CT7> YUtKtiUM AVtMCt * I STUM TIB US BAIAK tVVTCOSI
USOA NEC CRS 2*lo Tt (10)
WEEKLY BROILER CHICK PLACEMENTS*
MILLIONS
1977
/
/ 47 I A A
y~>// 1975 i V \yCS
Jh ,v .
60 hA £ WM f-i—Si
K W
V V
50 I tiltl.H-J 1.l U-H-.11 ! H-l-fcL-H I 4 4 I IfcJt-l-H-lfll.r
JAN APR JULY OCT
USDA
wholesale broiler prices
averaging moderately below
1977 levels.
Broiler meat supplies in
1977 are large despite high
production costs and poor
profitability during much of
the first half of 1977. Supplies
for all of 1977 will be up
around three per cent from
1976 and 15 per cent above
1975. Supplies would have
been larger bad it not been
for the losses sustained from
the extreme cold last winter
and the .abnormally hot
weather in late Spring and -
early summer.
- Output of broiler meat in
federally inspected
slaughter plants this year
through September ex
ceeded a year ago by about
three per cent. Last Sum
mer’s hot weather reduced
the number of chicks placed
for October’s marketings to
near year-earlier levels.
However, as the weather
moderated and feed prices
declined, producers stepped
up placements for late 1977
marketings. Chick
placements suggest that
there will be about a tenth
more broilers than a year
ago moving to market
during tee last six weeks of
1977. This corresponds with
tee weakest demand period
of the year for broilers and
likely will result in broiler
prices dropping below the
cost of production and
marketing.
The large grain- and
: soybean cropsdiarvested this
Fall, coupled with a
relatively favorable profit
situation in the Summer and
early Fall, are expected to
result in broiler producers
holding production above a
year earlier during tee first
half of 1978-perhaps by five
to seven per cent. If feed
price prospects continue
favorable, producers will
likely continue to hold
production above a year
earlier during tee second
half of 1978. However, the
percentage increase may
moderate from first half
levels as producers adjust to
sharply larger pork supplies.
Despite large supplies of
BROILER SLAUGHTER*
MIL LB '
_/% L ;
” ■ TNZa v .
ft 1976 \
v A \
700 V— j‘ ~
Vv/r
\V/
- w
V
600 I- I I 4 J-" 4—rr
' JAN APR JULY OCT.
• ciftnnim *t*»* n c##«. uwinm44 momcmw
USOA Mti IRS I0t!) 77«tOt
$ PER L 3
50
40
1977
USD*
red meats and broilers this
year, broiler prices ex
ceeded year-earlier levels
during much of the year.
Wholesale prices in 9 cities
through September
averaged 41.9 cents a pound,
slightly above a year earlier.
Wholesale prices during
October remained fairly
strong, but prices will
decline more than usual in
November and December
because of the sharp in
crease in marketings. Prices
in late November and
December may drop to the
mid-SO’s of a year earlier
despite higher than year
earlier competing meat
prices.
Broiler prices in 1978 will
be bolstered by increased
consumer incomes and
lower beef supplies.
However, larger broiler and
pork supplies will be more
than offsetting, and broiler
prices are expected to
average moderately below
1977.
If broiler output during
January-June 1978 increases
five to seven per cent from
1977 levels as now seems
likely, broiler prices could
average in the upper 30’s,
compared with 41.6 cents a
pound during January-June
1978. However, the decline in
broiler prices from a year
earlier could be more than
offset by lower production
costs if feed ingredient
prices turn out about as
expected.
The demand for broilers
has been strong in 1977. Per
Ml
BROILER PRICES*
30
APR
JAN
* aw arr wttc»no
1975
KS %r
/
/
sST»-"'
/\
1976
OCT.
JULY
capita consumption of young
chicken (primarily broilers)
in 1977 likely will gain
around a pound over the 40.4
pounds in 1976. If broiler
output increases as expected
in 1978, consumption of
young chicken will likely
increase one to two pounds
from 1977 levels.
Exports of young chicken
in 1977 may also exceed the
record 287 million pounds of
1976. Through September
this year, exports of whole
young chickens and cut-up
chicken parts totaled 235
million pounds, 20 per cent
above a year earlier. Ex
ports were relatively large
during the last half of 1976
because of the substantial
shipments to Iraq. Exports
to Iraq during the rest of 1977
likely will be down sharply.
Even so, exports for all of
1977 likely will be a new
record.
The Outlook for
Turkeys
Turkey production is
expected to show a moderate
increase in 1978, spurred by
lower production costs
and good profits in the fall of
1977. Larger production of
competing meats and turkey
will likely result in a
moderate decline in turkey
prices in 1978.
The 1977 turkey crop was
esimated by USDA’s Crop
Reporting Board at 138
million birds, down one per
cent from last year’s record
140 million. This is in line
(Continued on Page 93)
Dealer for
Dependable Equipment an
Dependable Service:
Airville. Pa.
Airville Farm Service
Airville, Pa
717-862-3358
Clapper Farm
R.D. 1'
814-669-4465
Annville. Pa.
B H.M. Farm Equipment, Inc
R.D 1
717-867-2211
Beavertown, Pa
BenH Walter
Beavertown, Pa,
717-658-7024
Bernville. Pa
StanleyA Klopp, Inc.
Bernville, Pa
215-488-1510
Biglerville. Pa.
Wolff Farm Supply Co
Biglerville, Pa
717-677-8144
Carlisle. Pa.
Paul Shovers, Inc
35 East Willow Street
717-243-2686
Catai
Abraczinskas Farm
Equipment, Inc
RD 1
717-356-7409
Chambersburg. Pa,
Clugston Implement, Inc
R.D 1
717-263-4103
Palm, Pa.
Wentz Farm Supplies, Inc
u ‘ M^? rin^'c Pa ' i 215-679-7164
Nevm N. Myer & Sons, Inc
Chester Springs, Pa
215-827-7414
“X,
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Davidsburg. Pa.
, George N -
R'D’2 ' 1
Dover, Pa
717-292-^673
Elizabethtown. Pa.
1 •
Messick Farm Equipment, Inc
2750 North Market Street
717-367-1319
N£G EflSb* 7700,
Gettysburg. Pa
Ymglmg Implements
RD 9
717-359-4848
Halifax. Pa
Sweigard Bros
R D 3, Box 13
717 896 3414
Ham
Sheets Bros, Inc
Carlisle Street
717 632-3660
lonev Brook. Pa
Dependable Motor Co
East Mam Street
215-273-3131
Honey Grove, Pa.
Norman D Clark & Son, Inc
Honey Grove, Pa
717-734-3682
Farnsworth Farm Supplies,
Inc
103 Cemetery Street
717-584-2106
L H Brubaker, Inc
350 Strasburg Pike
717-397-5179
Evergreen Tractor Co , Inc
30 Evergreen Road
717-273-2616
Lititz. Pa
Roy A. Brubaker
700 Woodcrest Avenue
717-626-7766
Lovsville. Pa.
Paul Shovers, Inc
Loysville, Pa
See your nearest
SPERW«}»I\EW HOLLAMS
tandria. Pa.
iquipment McConnellsburg Motor &
Implement Co
875 East Lincoln Way
717-485-3181
rissa. Pa,
[hesville. Pa,
ter. Pi
i non,
lit. Pa.
Kermit K Kistler, Inc
Lynnport, Pa
215-298-3270
iru. Pa.
IcEwensville. Pa.
Don’s Service Shop
Box 97 >
- 717-538-1362
Mill Hall. Pa.
Paul A Dotterer
RD.I
717-726-3471
Millville, Pa.
W 0 Diehl & Sons
RD 1
717-458-6421,
New Holland. Pa,
ABC Groff, Inc
110 South Railroad
717-354-4191
Oley. Pa.
A J. Noss& Son, Inc
RD 2
215-987-6257
Orwigsburg. Pa.
PaulJ Eichert & Son
RD 1
717-943-2304
Pitman. Pa.
Marlin W Schreffler
Pitman, Pa
' , 17-j548-1120
' I «
Ouarrvville. Pa-
_C EJViley &Son, Inc
10l (South Lime Street
717-7.86-2895
Big Valley Sales&Service, Inc
PO Box 548
717-667 3944
Ringtown, Pa.
Ringtown Farm Equipment
Ringtown, Pa
717-889-3184
Pa
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R B Miller, Inc
Shippensburg, Pa
717-532-4178
Silverdale. Pa
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Box 149
215-257-5135
ma, Pa
Tamai
Charles S Snyder, Inc
RD 3
717-386-5945
Waynesboro. Pa.
Blue Ridge Fruit Exchange,
Inc
Waynesboro, Pa
717-762-3117
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M S Yearsley & son
114-116 East Market Street
215-696-2990
West Grove. Pa.
S G Lewis 4 Son, Inc
RD 2, Box 66
215-869-2214
Churchville. Md.
Walter G. Coale, Inc
2849-53 Churchville, Rd
301-734-7722
Rising Sun. Md.
Ag-lnd Equipment Co . Inc -
RD 2, Route 273 East
301-398-6132
301-658-5568
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Owen Supply Co
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609-769-0308