Drop in cattle numbers
(Continued from Page 1)
calved between July of 1976
and July of 1977 dropped by
10 per cent. An estimated
182,000 beef cows were on
Pennsylvania farms as of
July 1 of this year.
At 130.6 million cattle on
U.S. farms on July 1 of this
year, cattle numbers have
dropped by 9% million since
July 1 of 1975. That sets the
stage for expansion -
especially since feed costs
have dropped significantly -
and profit margins should
look more favorable.
Excepting the year 1934,
cattle numbers have peaked
in every ten years at mid
decade: 1945, 1955, 1965, and
1975. This definite pattern
gives cattle industry leaders
further confidence in their
belief that the future looks
brighter. Cattle cycles are
relatively predictable every
10 to 12 years, experts say.
Topper Thorpe of the
National Cattlemen’s
Association predicts the
trend will not change and
therefore in the mid
“...1980’s we’ll be right back
where we have been.”
Thorpe says that by
January 1 of this year.
there’ll be only 50.5 to 51
million head of beef cows in
this country. He further
predicts that improved
feeder prices will create
banker confidence and that
the producer position will
improve. “Good quality
replacement cows and
heifers won’t get cheaper...
the cow calf man will be in
the driver’s seat,” says
another cattle expert.
Robert Reierson,
economist for Monfort’s, the
huge cattle firm in Colorado,
opinionizes that not all
segments of the beef cattle
industry will be profitable
until per capita supply is
down to 110 to 115 pounds.
Moore predicts per capita
beef consumption for 1977
will fall back to 125 pounds,
after having been record
high in 1976 at 129 pounds. He
sees a further decrease in
beef consumption for next
year as well. It should be
noted, however, that
Reierson was talking per
capita supply, while Moore
is figuring consumption.
Moore explains that the
record 129 pounds of beef per
person in 1976 came about
because of the market being
saturated with beef.
“Liquidation of cattle
numbers during the last two
years resulted in more old
cows being sold; in essence
throwing more beef on the
market.”
“Over the long pull, the
next three or four years look
favorable,” Moore predicts.
The Penn State
agricultural economist is
reluctant to predict prices,
however, saying that there
are a couple of “monkey
wrench factors” involved.
The major factor which is
already being felt is low
priced feed. Moore predicts
cattlemen will take ad
vantage of this situation and
fill their feedlots. More beef
will be coming to market
than was anticipated.
But the cattlemen won’t be
alone in this expansion
trend. Hog and broiler
producers are seeing the
same thing, and with that
will come increased com
petition among these three
major segments of the meat
industry. This higher than
anticipated production
throughout the rest of 1977
and into early 1978 will
probably mean that price
recoveries won’t be as
strong as suspected earlier.
Dr. Glen Grimes, livestock
marketing specialist from
the University of Missouri,
predicts cattle slaughter
next year at 43.5 million
head, and 40.5 million for
1979. The 1977 figure is ex
pected to total 47.3 million.
Prices indicated by Grimes
for the remainder of this
year on feeder steers at
Omaha fall into the low $4O
range and the mid and upper
$4O range for 1978.
Like Moore and others.
Grimes declares that cattle
feeders are in a better
position with lower grain
costs and cattle prices will
increase modestly.
Lowered feed prices will
result in a decline of non-fed
beef coming to market.
Instead, these animals will
come off pasture and go into
feedlots, where they’ll grow
an extra couple of hundred
pounds. Earlier, these cattle
had been sent to market
directly from the range and
pasture, explained Moore.
Midwestern cattlemen see
the same trend taking place.
Cheap grain is bringing
numerous Midwesterq
producers back into the
market for calves and
yearlings and this is
regarded as a strong force
for strengthening that
CALL YOUR LOCAL DEALER
!l POWER ANI
IT CO. INC.
EOUIPME
ROBERT NICK. Presidi
Lancaster, PA
717-394-9251
Leesburg, VA
703-777-3567
R 1
Jersey Shore, PA
717-753-3196
JIM CHASE
Dushore
717-924-3757
CAMPBELLS
McAlisterville, PA
717-463-2191
GEORGE LAWTON
Wellsboro, PA
717-724-3015
BILL HANSEL
Knocksville, PA
814-326-4586
RUSSSMELTZER
Centre Hall, PA
814-364-9353
HUGHES BROS.
RD Lajoseor Newburg, PA
Clearfield Co
814-277-6401
C & W EQUIPMENT CO
260 York Road
Carlisle, PA 17017
717-243-4419
RVI
Alexandria, PA 16611
814-669-9015
HINES EQUIPMENT CO
Box 5, Rt 22 West
Cresson, PA 16630
814-886-4183
Turbotville, PA
717-649-5430
Lancaster Farming, Saturday, October 22,1977
market. But it’s also noted
by the experts that
psychology plays a strong
part in establishing cattle
prices, and that often factors
not directly concerned with
production or consumption
influence the market.
Bankers and the futures
market are two examples.
To counter adverse
psychology, producers are
advised to keep abreast of
such industry influencing
factors as grain supplies and
demand, competitive meats,
governmental actions and
consumer demands, plus
keeping accurate records of
production costs. “More skill
in marketing is needed,”
Newsletter covers wheat
WASHINGTON - The first
issue in a series of com
modity newsletters planned
to help farmers make
production and marketing
decisions was released
earlier this month by the
U.S. Department of
Agriculture.
Several issues of the wheat
letter are planned for
publication over the coming
year, and a schedule of
release dates will be an
nounced soon. Letters
WILLIAM F. GUHL
RD
Oxford, PA
717 529 2569
LESTER BOLL
RD 1
Lititz, PA 17543
717-626 6198
BRANDT'S FARM SUPPLY
601 E High Street
Elizabethtown, PA 17022
717-367-1221
ERB & HENRY EQUIPMENT
2226 Henry Avenue
New Berlmville, PA 19545
215-845-7886
LONGACRE ELECTRIC
602 Mam Street
Bally, PA
215-845-2261
MECKLEY DALMATIA
Dalmatia, PA 17017
717-758-3021
0. A. NEWTON
Bndgeville, Del 19933
302-337-8211
SWOPI
& BASHORE
R D 1 (Freystown)
Myerstown PA 17067
717-933 4138
IPPERMAN
R D 3
Chambersburg, PA 17201
717 264 6007
EARLS. WEAVER
R D 1
New Holland, PA
717-354 7889
iMUELJ. YODER
R D 1 Box 150
Greenwood, Del 19950
302-422-5010
GEORGE BRUCHEY. JR
R D 1
Keymar, MD
301-662-6963
said Lewis, who warns of
slaughter steer and heifer
price problems for next
May, June and possibly July,
but otherwise an improved
slaughter market.
In summation, it was
pointed out that the industry
has gone through a “survival
of the fittest” shakedown.
Stronger operators have
survived. Less productive
cattle have been liquidated.
The current national herd is
the highest quality and most
productive ever, ready for
producers to capitalize on
the turnaround which is in
the offing.
Feed prices won’t go up
much, adds Moore.
covering other major
commodities are in the
development stage.
Correction
A story appearing last
week on seeding rye
into cornfields made
reference to rye grass.
The crop sown was
actually rye grain.
Technician at Raytheon
Company, Waltham, Mass.,
checks inside seams of a
32-foot-long microwave ov
en. The tunnel-shaped ov
ens are being used by meat
processing firms to partial
ly thaw frozen blocks of
meat from -10 degrees F to
about 26 degrees, the perfect
temperature for slicing.
SALE
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portable heaters
Buy a KNIPCO heater
today and save Six
different models from
which to choose From
30 000 to 150 000 BTUs
Bum kerosene or No 1
fuel oil
Drop by and see the
KNIPCO line of portable
heaters guaranteed to
keep you warm this winter
FARMERSVILLE
EQUIPMENT, INC.
R.D.12
Ephrata, Pa 17522
19