60—Lancaster Farming, Saturday, June 25, 1977
Retail meat prices and
demand expected to
WASHINGTON, D.C. -
Following stable prices in
the first half of this year,
consumers will face higher
retail meat prices during die
second half. Smaller beef
supplies, improved con
sumer demand, and higher
marketing costs will more
than offset continued large
pork and broiler supplies.
Third quarter retail prices
for Choice beef are expected
to average three to four per
cent higher than in the
Spring quarter primarily
due to seasonal strength in
demand. Hamburger prices
could advance more than
those for Choice beef, if
slaughter of cows and
forage-fed steers and heifers
declines this Summer as
expected. Further moderate
retail price increases for
both Choice beef and
hamburger are expected this
fall, according to USDA.
In advance in pork prices
this summer over spring
may average eight to 10 per
cent with July-September
pork supplies down slightly
from the Spring quarter.
Also, much of the recent
advance in live hog prices
has not yetheen reflected at
retail. The seasonal advance
in broiler prices may
average five per cent. This
Fall increased pork
production likely will result
in some easing of prices for
both pork and broilers, as
well as temper the increases
in beef prices.
Red meat supplies- for
calendar 1977 will fie largely
unchanged from the
previous year. Beef
production is expected to be
down slightly with prices for
Choice beef at retail up three
to four per cept. With
prospects for a seven to
eight per cent larger pork
supply, retail prices may
average five per cent or
more below year-earlier
' levels. Through May, retail
pork prices avereaged 15 per
cent under the year-earlier
level. But with only a small
increase likely in pork
production during the second
half of this year, some year
to-year increase in retail
pork prices would then be
expected.
Underlying these changes
in retail meat prices are
cyclical changes in livestock
production. Total cattle
slaughter will be down this
year, but with an improving
fed cattle market, slaughter
of steers and heifers from
feedlots may show a small
increase. During the Winter
quarter, fed marketings
from the 23 States were two
per cent more than a year
ago. Marketings during the
Spring, and Summer quar
ters will be near those of a
year earlier, and a small
increase is likely this Fall.
Nonfed slaughter is expected
.to continue below year
earlier levels during each
quarter, barring unusually
dry conditions.
With relatively large beef
production and increased
pork and broiler supplies,
any price advance in die fed
cattle market much above
the late May levels is
unlikely. For 1977, the price
of Choice steers at Omaha
may average in the low $4O
- up from $39 per 100
pounds in 1976. Second half
prices may average between
$42 and $45.
Cattle feeders responded
to price strength in the fed
beef market during April by
increasing the number of
cattle going on feed.
Placements in the 7 States
were record large for that
month. Further increases in
placements are anticipated
for late Spring and Summer.
With more heavy yearling
cattle going on feed, larger
Spring placements could
hold fed marketings this
Summer near those of last
year. Fed marketings this
fall could be up at least 5 per
cent. Depending on weather
mid crop prospects, cow and
nonfed steer and heifer
slaughter is expected to be
below a year ago in each
quarter. Although reduced
from the very high levels of
1975 and 1976, supplies of
nonfed beef are relatively
large.
Feeder cattle price
movements are expected to
closely parallel fed cattle
price changes this year.
Feeder prices advanced
fairly steadily through early
May before turning lower.
Little price increase is ex
pected during the Summer.
With a large com crop and
lower feed costs, feeder steer
prices could advance to the
mid- to upper-$4 O-range by
yearend. Dry conditions this
Summer would force more
feeder cattle to market and
depress prices. An improved
feeder cattle market could
halt liquidation of the cow
herd during 1978.
The cyclical upturn in pork'
output will likely continue
through this Summer,
though the rate of increase
will slacken considerably.
Hog slaughter is not likely to
be up more than five per
cent, and Fall slaughter may
be below last year’s level,
despite the larger
farrowings planned for
March-May.
Producer intentions on
March 1 were to increase the
number of sows farrowing by
3 per cent during March-May
and by five per cent during
June-August. The increase
indicated for March-May
was below that reported in
December. Although
economic conditions im
proved, the severe winter
and disease problems took
their toll and probably
rise
contributed to this change in
intentions. The breeding
herd is larger than last year,
but significant year-to-year
increases in farrowings will
likely be delayed until this
Summer.
' Pigs born during the
Summer and Fall this year
will supply most of the
slaughter stock for the first
six months of 1978. If feed
prices continue to moderate,
the slowdown in the cycle
already evident should
support high enough hog
prices to encourage con
tinued increases in first half
1978 farrowings. As a result,
pork production could be up
again in 1978.
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