A g outlook cautious, uncertain
(Continued from Page 11
aren't going to improve in
the immediate future and
showed a chart to explain
one of the reasons. Cattle
numbers arc still increasing.
This year alone, there arc an
estimated 5.5 million more
cattle on farms than there
were in 1974. The rate of
increase is going down,
however.
Slaughter weights arc
down by 75 pounds according
to Crowley, and any price
strength in the near future
will be confined to fed cattle.
“The guy getting
slaughtered in the cattle
market right now is the cow
calf man. In the Midwest the
fellows can’t hardly give
calves away,” Crowley
concluded.
Information received at
this office indicates that only
hog prices are expected to
remain steady during the
remaining months of the
year. But the hog market
may get some extra pressure
as larger supplies of non-fed
beef cattle enter the market.
Also, consumers may begin
to resist the comparatively
high pork prices at the
supermarket. Overall,
however, economists
predict: “Profits for
finishers and feeder pig
producers currently are
good and should continue
good well into 1976.”
Crowley’s comment on
bacon prices was; “If you
think bacon is high now ...
wait a while.” He added
however, that they may have
reached a ceiling. The hog to
corn ratio is now pegged at
18 to 1, and hog producers
are not seen as reacting to
the current price stimulus.
No big expansion in hog
production is seen for the
country as a whole, although
Pennsylvania’s interest in
hog production is growing,
according to the state’s
swine specialists.
The picture isn’t that
optimistic for farmers
specializing in dairy steers,
beef calves, and fed cattle.
“There’s little if any chance
to avoid lower prices during
the next 60 days,” reports
Commonwealth National
Bank’s agricultural pam
phlet for September. “Fed
cattle will be weaker, but the
# .St.'S
DAIRY
” DAY
AT NEW HOLLAMI SALES STABLES, INC.
New Holland, PA
If you need 1 cow or a truck load, we have from
100 to 200 cows to sell every week at your price.
Mostly fresh and close springing Holstems.
Cows from local farmers and our regular
shippers including Marvin Eshleman, Glenn Fite,
Gordon Fritz, Blaine Hoffer, Dale Hostetter, H D
Matz, and Jerry Miller.
SALE STARTS 12:30 SHARP
Also Every Wednesday, Hay, Straw &
Ear Corn Sale 12:00 Noon.
For arrangements for special sales or herd
dispersals at our barn or on your farm, contact
Abram Diffenbach, Mgr.
717-354-4341
main factor is the large
supply of feeder cattle,” the
report continues. It points
out that Western ranchers
who held on to their calf
crops last year will be forced
to sell this fall no matter
what the price might be.
Choice steers are expected
to slip into the mld-s4o’s at
major markets during
September and October,
Total number of cattle
slaughtered is estimated to
be 10 percent above a year
ago - due mostly to the
heavily stocked western
ranges. Beef demand is
reportedly on the rise.
Red meat production in
Pennsylvania during July
was four percent above a
year ago. Slaughter of meat
animals increased for cattle
and calves, but decreased
for hogs, sheep and lambs,
according to the Crop
Reporting Service.
Cattle slaughter increased
29 percent, calves 79 percent,
while hog slaughter
decreased 17 percent, and
sheep and lambs were 25
percent below July a year
ago.
Turkeys
Turkey prices this
Thanksgiving are likely to be
on the high side. Frozen
stocks of gobblers are down
by 28 percent from a year
ago and there are only four
percent more eggs in the
incubators to make up for
the shortage. If supply and
demand holds true here,
there should be a few op
portunities for profit in the
turkey business for 1975.
James Via from the
University of Maryland said
that intentions among the 20
leading turkey producing
states indicate a six percent
cutback. “Records show it
will be down even more than
that,” Via observed. The
poultry specialist predicts
prices to average 59 to 60
cents per pound for the third
quarter of this year, and 62 to
63 cents for the remainder.
The strong trend is expected
to continue through the early
part of 1976 as well. Lower
feed prices combined with
higher broiler and turkey
prices caused the feed-price
ratios to rise to their highest
levels since August 1073 for
broilers and December 1973
for turkeys.
Poultry
”Wc can't really talk about
broilers and eggs without
mentioning beef because
demand, supply, and price
are inter-effective,” James
Via, from the University of
Maryland said. He claims
broilers are in a more
favorable position this year
because: 1. feed costs have
dropped off somewhat and
price increases are allowing
for more profit. "We’re in a
favorable position this year
due to a cutback in pork and
relatively high beef prices,”
he explained.
“We’re not ready for all
out production,” the
specialist noted, “but they
have set the stage for it.” Via
says there’s too much un
certainty yet with the feed
grain situation - “nobody will
buy $3.00 corn” - the broiler
industry should be most
careful for the rest of the
year.
“Cycles of feast of famine
have been typical in the past,
but it doesn’t have to be that
way,” Via remarked.
There are six million less
pullets going to the laying
flocks for the rest of this
year, according to Via,
which means lower supplies
at a time when demand is
increasing. This should spell
extra cadi for the poultry
farmers. According to
USDA, poultry and egg
production is likely to be
profitable in coming months,
barring a rise in feed costs.
USDA also notes that profit
margins for broilers this fall
may narrow to near the
breakeven point.
Via sees no great increase
in Northeast egg production
until possibly late 1976. “Egg
producers have been rather
cautious, and as far as I’m
concerned I hope they
continue to do so,” Via
commented. “Unless caution
is thrown to the wind, we can
expect 1976 to be better than
this year,” he concluded.
Grain
According to the Wall
Street Journal, farmers are
having second thoughts
about expansion programs
due to the possibility of
higher grain prices. The
analysis concludes that a
farm price of $2.00 to $2.25
per bushel for corn is needed
to induce a significant boost
in livestock and poultry
production, and even that
may not be enough ac
cording to some specialists.
The uncertainty of grain
prices weighs heavily on all
of the aforementioned
outlooks.
The University of
Maryland’ John Crothers
told of rail car loadings being
down and whiskey sales up.
“That means more people
are getting loaded than
railroad cars,” he said to the
accompaniment of chuckles
from others in the room.
On a more serious note,
Crothers stressed the un
certainty of Soviet pur-
chases,
and
longshoremen's willingness
to load it. He believes this
year’s crops will easily meet
or exceed August extimates,
although the final prediction
for corn is still in doubt.
Crothers does not see a
“great spurt in demand” for
domestic consumption of
feed grains, and adds that
the demand for it last year
was a “disaster."
Soybean production is
described as adequate to
meet all utilization and leavy
a big carryover to boot.
Crothers noted that we arc
experiencing the lowest
soybean consumption since
the 1968-69 season due to
soybeans having priced
themselves out of a market.
The senior marketing
specialist at the University
of Maryland does not believe
a $6.00 price for soybeans
can be sustained in view of
the soft demand, large
carryover and large crop.
Not much improvement is
seen unless Russia decides to
buy.
According to the experts,
there is still too much un
certainty with grain prices to
make any concrete
predictions.
Broilers
According to a USDA
release, dated September 8,
demand for broilers in the
first quarter of 1976 will be
boosted by a sharply reduced
supply of pork, a smaller
supply of turkey, and higher
real disposable consumer
incomes. Broilers will face
more competition, however,
from a larger supply of beef.
These views are contained
in the U.S. Department of
Agriculture (USDA)
publication “Broiler
Marketing Facts First
Quarter 1976,” which was
released on Sept. 9.
Other prospects con
cerning the broiler industry
during the first quarter of
1976 include:
- Broiler production at the
same per capita level as in
first quarter 1975 con
sidering the prospective
supply-demand conditions
for competing meats and
general economic activity
should result in an average
price of 46 cents per pound,
about 5 cents higher than a
year earlier.
This analysis takes into
account the August forecast
for a record 5.85 billion
bushel corn crop and a
soybean crop of 1,458 million
bushels. With prospects for
strong export and sluggish
domestic feed demands,
com prices could average
about $3.30 a bushel during
the November 1975 - January
1976 period, 8 cents below the
year-earlier ingredient
purchase price. Soybean
meal prices could average
near $l3O a ton, some $8
lower than in the same
period of 1974-1975. These
corn and soybean meal
prices would decrease feed
cost of producing a pound of
ready-to-cook broilers about
1 cent from a year earlier.
-Other broiler production
costs will be higher in the
first quarter of 1976 than in
1975. Processing and
marketing costs will also be
greater than in the year
earlier period as the prices
of most items continue to
rise.
Grain
exports
the
Assistant U.S. Secretary ot
Agriculture, Richard E. Bell
pointed out recently that the
U.S. is expected to export
LancMter Farming. Saturday. September 13,1975 H
almost GO per cent of its
wheat crop, in the neigh
borhood of a quarter of its
corn crop, and about half the
soybeans. He added that
“American farmers must
export in these magnitudes
year after year or sharply
curtail output.”
Bell projected wheat
exports for 1975-76 at 33.7
million tons, (vs. 28 million
last year), corn exports at
35.9 million tons (vs. 28.2
million in the 1974-75
marketing year), and over
all gram exports at 77 million
Champion Exhibitors
at York Fair
Cindy Rutter, York, was chosen as the grand
champion showman of the 4-H Dairy Show at the
York Fair. She also exhibited the grand champion of
the Guernsey breed.
Barbara Kilgore of Airville R 2 was named grand
champion fitter of the 4-H Dairy Show. This is the
second time she has won the honor.
tons (vs. 02.4 million in the
previous year).
Carryover stocks arc
likely to be up next year
because of increased
production of these crops
despite both record exports
and increased domestic
consumption. Bell sees
wheat carryover at 500
million bushels, more than
double that of either of the
past two years; corn at 670
million bu., more than
double that of the current
year, and the highest since
1973.