Lower
ICorribwsd from Pan I|
have on prices will be offset
somewhat, Blsnklcy feels,
by the fact that the country is
coming out of the old crop
year with a 285-million
I 4
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Grain Prices Seen
bushel carryover, the
smallest since the summer
of 1948,
In the export markets,
U.S. growers will be facing
stiff competition from their
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Australian and Canadian
counterparts. Export orders
are way under levels of last
year at this time, mostly
because the bigger buyers
have been waiting to see
what happens to the market.
The Chinese haven’t placed
any orders yet, and although
the Russians have been
reported active in Canada,
they have yet to place any
orders for American wheat,
Blankley noted. But he did
say that the Indians have
been making some export
commitments.
Some observers see com
prices sinking in a sea of
crop after this year’s har
vest. Even so, Blankley feels
we’ll be walking a kind of
tightrope from now until
harvest. Last year’s short
fall, caused mostly by bad
weather conditions in the
Midwest, left the U.S. with
its lowest corn reserves
since 1948.
This near term shortness
in supply, and uncertainty
about the new crop could
cause wild swings in the
price between now and
harvest, Blankley said. The
new crop is off to an ex
cellent start on 66.94 million
acres, some three percent
more than last year. The
acreage, though, will have
less of an impact on the
market than the expected
increase in yields over last
year’s crippled crop.
Corn, Blankley pointed
out, is not a major item in
American exports, ac
counting for less than two
percent of the nation’s crop.
Much of the com in the world
markets is grown in South
America. Because of its
nearness to Eastern port
cities, some local corn is
exported.
From the producers’ point
of view, the soybean price
outlook for this year is pretty
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grim. Brazilian growers
should harvest what
Blankley called an
“astounding” number of
soybeans, and they’re going
to be competing strongly
against the Americans for
export business. Competitive
crops - those with high
protein contents-appear to
be booming this year, too.
African peanut production
soared 40 percent this year
from last. Anchovies are
again being harvested off the
coast of Peru, Philippine
copra is up from 1.4 million
tons to 1.8 million tons, and
there's a significantly
greater amount of palm oil
entering international trade
channels.
Blankley feels this year’s
carryover will likely be
double last year’s and said
that he can’t see anything
high-priced in soybeans for
this year’s crop.
As he wound up his talk,
Blankley told the audience
that he was dismayed by the
image many people hold of
the grain exporter as an
ogre. “Grain exports keep
people off the breadlines,”
he said. “About 20 percent of
U.S. farm products are
exported. Our balance of
payments would be in lots
worse shape if it weren’t for
exports, especially with the
price of oil skyrocketing.”
William Poorbaugh,
president of Lancaster’s
Poorbaugh Grain Co., took
the dais after Blankley.
Poorbaugh commented on
some of the broader aspects
of the grain market.
“We will certainly have
enough wheat and maybe too
much - if there can be such a
thing as too much wheat in a
world where people are
going hungry,” the long-time
grain dealer said. “The U.S.
could again find itself in the
position of being a granary
DUE TO THE RESPONSE
SPECIAL WILL CONTINUE
THRU JULY 12
Uncarter Farming. Saturday. July 5,1975
for the world. If India,
Russia or China have bad
crop years, our price picture
could change tremen
dously.”
Barring weather
calamities here or abroad,
Poorbaugh, like Blankley,
expects to see generally
lower grain prices this year.
“This could be the year that
the grain grower finds out
what the livestock producers
have been going through in
the recent past," he said.
“Farm Income is winding
down. Farmers dropped $7
billion in purchasing power
last year. This has created a
real credit crunch. Farm
indebtedness is up 25 percent
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ALLENTOWN EQUIPMENT CENTER
Chapman, Pa.
215-395-3381
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from last year,
“Mortagaglng land is like
a corporation selling assets
to stay afloat. We don't want
low yields and poor prices.
That won't solve grain
dealers’ problems and it
certainly won’t solve far
mers’ problems.”
Pointing to the increases in
energy prices, Poorbaugh
said, “If gasoline prices
have to go up to encourage
production, then I think the
same should happen to food.
The world needs food. But
I’m concerned that if far
mers have a shortfall on
prices this year, we may not
be getting the food we need
in the years ahead.”
n®®;
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