80—UncasUr Farming, Saturday, Junt 21. 1975
Will There Be Food For All?
Neither the doomsayers aupply la lucly to lag behind
nor the Pollyannas will walk demand. Yet theae
away completely satisfied poaaibilities cannot be ruled
after reading The World out.
Food Situation and “In view of the uncertain
Proepecta to INS. One of the nature of food aupplies," the
more widely publicized authora continue, "it would
studies put out by USDA's seem to be wise social policy
Economic Research Service to insure against major
(ERS) in 1974, it melds the shortages ... and to be
good news with the bad. prepared to pay reasonable
But throughout this 90- cost to maintain moderate
page report threads a hope stocks or reserve capacity or
that the world’s less for* to absorb some surplus
tunate nations can fend for should they result."
themselves if official policies Many views of the world
by the world’s countries are food situation focus on Im
steered in the right direction mutable forces or clr
by their governments. cumstances (such as th*
Fhe researeners do not limited surface of the earth,
dismiss reality. The fact is, changed climatic patterns,
problems abound in the or the fixed nature of con
world food picture, not the sumption patterns) which
least of which are the - are thought to be beyond the
vagaries of weather. Also, control of people,
we cannot be sure that The ERS analysis in
known technology in food dicates, however, that much
production will be applied of what has happened in the
properly, or that new development of the world
technological developments food situation can be traced
will be available when to government policies and
needed. basic human conditions
As put by the authors; (such as income distribution
“This study does not support and poverty), and suggests
the judgments that world that governmental and in
food supplies per capita are dividual choices will con
likely to decline or that the tinue to be critical in the
growth of the world food future.
Food stock* can provide
insurance against shortrun
dips in production. An im
portant insurance against
longrun shortfalls is a
backlog of resources and
basic and applied
agricultural research,
supported by policies and'
institutions through which
research and resources can
be quickly moved into the
fields to increase production.
Agricultural research needs
to be directed especially
toward the problems of in
creasing productivity in the
developing countries where
modern scientific
agriculture is only beginning
to be adopted.
The phenomenon of high
food prices and uncertain
food supplies arose out of a
combination of cir
cumstances, policy changes,
and longrun development
trends, which raise very
important issues but which
do not indicate a longrun
shortage of food supplies.
Among the major im
pediments to increasing food
production in both the
development and the
planned economies are
policies designed to maintain
low and stable food prices to
consumers. These policies
have dampened the far
mers; incentives to produce
food in some of the countries
and have partly made
necessary their large grain
imports.
The ERS study also tries to
answer these questions:
Will the real cost of food be
higher in the future than in
the past? It probably will be
higher because certain food
prices, particularly grain
prices, were especially
depressed during the years
immediately preceding 1972,
and because important food
production inputs such as
fertilizer will be more ex
pensive.
Nominal food prices will
also be higher because of
inflation. But when food
production is increased to
overcome recent shortages,
food costs can be expected to
fall to a level considerably
below present prices.
Has the world sufficient
resources to continue to
increase food production?
There is sufficient land and
raw materials for productive
inputs to greatly increase
food output. How fait
production will Increase, and
whether this increase in food
production will take place
mainly in the developing
countries, will depend more
on policy decisions than on
natural forces or raw
material inputs.
Will food supplies and
prices continue to be un
stable? This will depend
partly on policies adopted
with respect to food stocks.
Instability in the world’s
weather will produce in
stability in the supply of food
unless reserve measures are
adopted. Because of the
inelastic demand for food,
the absence of stocks will
result in major fluctuations
in prices whenever the
growth in supply departs
much from the growth in
demand.
Does “rising affluence”
impose a restricted diet on
the world’s poor? Should
consumption of livestock
products be reduced to
permit more basic food
grains for poor people? Food
consumption patterns
around the world are
determined by income
distribution and by the type
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and quantity of basic
foodstuffs produced In each
locality.
In the short run, if grain
supplies arc limited as they
arc now. high consumption
by the affluent raises prices
and thus restricts the diets of
the poor. In the longer run,
the price of food depends on
many factors, including
governments’ policies,
which are more important
than the level of con
sumption of the affluent.
Are there developments in
the world’s climate which
will limit increases in food
production? There is in
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itifficient evidence to sup
port such a conclusion, but
world weather is unstable
and unpredictable and the
world needs to be better
prepared for adversities
than it has been since 1972, in
the short run, such
preparedness requires food
stocks. In the medium term,
excess resources could also
help, but in the long run, it
requires a backlog of
technology to deal with
protracted adversities that
can be expected to occur.
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