14—Lancaster Farming. Saturday, Miy 10. 1975
U.S. Meat Imports Estimated
Higher, Voluntary Curbs Due
By FOREIGN COMMODITY ANALYSIS
Dairy, Livestock, and Poultry
Foreign Agricultural Service
Af uj. negotiations with meat-supply- porting countries are closed to imports
iog countries to voluntarily curb - -end -beef outpuHn-exporting-coontries -
tbeir exports near completion, USDA
has increased its estimate of 1975 meat
'imports subject to the Meat Import Law
(P.L. 88-482) to 1.18 billion pounds.
The new estimate, which was released
on March 31, was revised upward as
the voluntary restraint program became
more clear, and is 30 million pounds
above USDA’s first estimate of 1.15 bil
lion pounds made December 31.
In the absence of the restraint pro
gram, however, USDA has estimated
imports of meat under the Law above
the point that would trigger import
quotas.
The program of voluntarily limiting
imports is aimed mainly at protecting
the U.S. market from excessive foreign
supplies of meat, chiefly beef. The
United States is currently the only sig
nificant world market open to meat
exporting countries. Although U.S. beef
prices are not very encouraging for im
ports, they may look better as 1975
goes on, especially since most other im
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is continuing to build.
Even if negotiation of the voluntary
curbs proves unsuccessful, the United
States still has an ace in the hole.* The
U.S. Meat Import Law, in effect since
1964, provides for quotas to be imposed
on meat imports if estimated yearly im
ports equal or exceed 110 percent of an
adjusted base quantity. The law permits
imports of covered meat, which are
largely of frozen boneless beef for fur
ther processing, to rise in proportion to
increases in U.S. production, computed
from a 1959-63 base.
For 1975, the base quantity, as set by
this formula, is 1,074.3 million pounds,
product weight. Adding 10 percent over
age, the actual point at which the Presi
dent may take action under the Law to
limit imports is 1,181.7 million pounds.
The estimate of US. meat imports
covered by the Law is reviewed and re
vised quarterly. If imports are estimated
above the trigger point, the President
must invoke quotas. He may not, how
ever, reduce imports permitted below
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• certain level —thl* ypar 1,074.3 mil
lion pounds.
Last year, U.S. meat imports subject
to the law were sharply below 1973's
and were well under the quota trigger
ing point. This year, however, the pace
of imports has quickened ns trade re
strictions elsewhere have made them
selves felt. For the first 2 months of
1975. for example, imports rose to 233
million pounds—32.6 million more than
was imported in these months last_ year.
Any price improvementf from present
levels will, of course, encourage still
more imports.
Although U.S. livestock producers,
plagued by financial problems, have
urged the imposition of quotas, the
President has decided to try to nego
tiate voluntary agreements with supply
ing countries for a number of reasons.
Most important, this approach is ex
pected to make it easier for the United
Slates to negotiate reductions in barriers
to overseas sales of U.S. farm products.
Import quotas, by contrast, could be
detrimental to both U.S. agricultural ex
ports and the U.S. economy as a whole.
Further, the difference between the
quantity of imports under voluntary
restraints and the quota level is minor.
The difference amounts to only about
three-quarters of a pound of meat, car
cass weight basis, for each U.S. con
sumer. compared with the total 230
pounds of meat he is expected to con
sume in 1975. This slight difference is
expected to have only a negligible im-
pact on U.S. livestock end meet prices.
Most beef imported into the United
States is of monufecturini quality for
use in hamburgers or for further proc
essing. As such, imports compete di
rectly with culled cows or animals fed
on grass or silage, rather than higher
quality beef grain-finished in fecdlots.
Because of higher U.S. prices of feed
ingredients, slaughter of nonfed animals
has grown dramatically over the past
year and a half.
" "■Ara~rßUTrdT this rn6rc«*£7rrprs3Qer
tion. combined with the current eco
nomic downturn, imported beef prices
have been pressured down. At end-
March, however, imported manufactur
ing beef prices improved to about S 5
cents a pound, about the same as at the
beginning of the year, but down by 24
cents from those of a year ago.
Heavy U.S. slaughter of cows, os well
as of nonfed steers and heifers, that
is forecast for 1975 will tend to hold
imported beef prices down. For the
year, a 20 percent increase in U.S. cow
slaughter is expected, which will come
on top of a 20 percent rise recorded in
1974.
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