r*A mnioo.! s-» v«v
U. S. tobacco use in the
current marketing year may
about match the 2.1 billion
pounds of last season, ex
ceeding the 1974 crop of 2
billion. This will mean a
further small reduction in
’75 Tobacco Use Seen Equaling ’74
carryover from the 2.95
billion pounds at the start of
the 1974*75 marketing year.
U.S, growers' marketing
quotas will total more next
season, so larger crops can
be projected. If they arc not
t I t» Is* I /
realized, however,
manufacturers and ex
porters will need to turn
increasingly to alternative
supplies in the years ahead.
Domestic tobacco supplies
for 1974-75 arc down 3 per
cent from last season
because of reduced begin
ning stocks. The crop is up 13
percent from last year.
Output of both flue-cured and
burley rose less than ex
pected because of un
favorable weather.
Record-high flue-cured
prices continued in the
second half of the marketing
season and auction prices
averaged 19 percent higher
for the season. Burley
auction markets opened in
late November and prices
rose to record levels. With
the burley crop below
prospective use and loan
stocks sold out, prices should
hold firm throughout the
’.•'l *h ii:i fi/Mi-
marketing season.
The continuing rise in
cigarette output means
domestic tobacco use in 1974-
75 likely will total a little
above last marketing year’s
level. Despite higher U.S.
tobacco prices and smaller
supplies, U.S. exports of
unmanufactured tobacco are
expected to remain near last
season’s total.
Again the 1974, U.S.
cigarette manufacturers
have increased cigarette
unit sales. Cigarette in
ventories have been reduced
but output is rising about 1
percent above 1973. Further
gains in adult population and
in per capita use should
boost cigarette output in 1975
to another record. In con
trast, cigar volume trails
1973’s output and the
downtrend may continue in
1975.
manufactured tobacco
dU J f iibl yi.bu»j(*£ gmoMbt J •B' r
Lancaster Farmlnt. Saturday, Jan. 4,1975—79
gained during 1974. At ap
proximately 650 million
pounds (725 million pounds,
farm-sales weight), they
came close to setting a
calendar year record. In
creased utilization in many
foreign countries has
resulted in generally tight
supplies and rising prices in
world markets.
Total leaf exports for the
1975 calendar year will
easily surpass the 548
million-pound average for
1964-73, and may remain
near the high level of this
year. Continuing U.N.
sanctions on trade with
Rhodesia arc helping U.S.
exports. Japan’s purchases
of U.S. leaf picked up again
this year. Despite rising
excise taxes, U.S leaf use in
West German held steady.
But U.K. cigarette
manufacturers took less.
At 2.85 billion pounds, the
flue-cured tobacco supply for
the 1974-75 marketing year
(July-June) is 3 percent
below last year despite
growess selling 7 percent
more. The combination of a
smaller carryover and
strong buyer demand
boosted grower price
averages to a record $1.05
per pound. With use ex
ceeding marketings,
carryover in mid-1975 is
expected to decline from the
1.6 billion pounds of a year
earlier.
The 1975 national flue
cured marketing quota is up
15 percent from 1974. The
effective quota (reflecting
adjustments for the last
season’s marketings above
and below quotaj is about 1.6
billion pounds, 18 percent
higher than last year. The
average support level goes
up about 12 percent next
season. Some inputs for the
1975 tobacco crop will
remain in short supply and
production costs will in
crease further.
A sharp price rise on
hurley tobacco auctions
brought sales through
December 12 to a record
average of $1.16 per pound,
24 cents above last year.
About 85 percent of the crop
will be sold in the pre-
Christmas sales period.
Burley supply for 1974-75 is
1.64 billion pounds, about 3
percent below last season.
Carryover on October 1
declined sharply due to the
short crop last year. The 1974
hurley crop is an estimated
572 million pounds, one
fourth above 1973’s
production.
Supplies of Maryland
tobacco are about the same
as last season, while supplies
of several other kinds are
lower. For fire-cured, dark
air-cured, and cigar filler
and binder, supplies are near
the normal supply level as
defmed in quota legislation.
Thus, USLA may have to
consider increasing or'
termmating quotas on those
kinds for the 1975 crops.
Marketing quotas and
acreage allotments for
tobacco under price support
will be announced by
February 1.