6— Lancaster Farming, Saturday, November 23, 197<
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What once appeared to be
a huge 1074-75 wheat crop In
the making has turned out to
be a record harvest of only
modest proportions. The
current production estimate
of 1,781 million bushels is 4
percent above last year’s
record crop, but well below
earlier expectations. A 19
percent increase in har
vested acreage was coun
tered by sharply lower yields
of 27.8 bushels per acre,
primarily the result of un
favorable weather and
disease.
Despite the record har
vest, total wheat supplies
will be 6 percent less than a
year ago since carrying
stocks of 249 million bushels
were the smallest in more
than 25 years.
First quarter (July-
September) disappearance
was off the pace of a year
ago. Lagging export ship
ments, a moderately lower
mill grind, and sharply
reduced feeding were the
reasons. However, demand
for the remainder of the year
is expected to be strong. A
broadly based surge in ex
port bookings during Oc
tober lifted cumulative
exports plus outstanding
sales for the year to over 800
million bushels. The outlook
for 1974-75 is for another
billion bushel export year,
perhaps more. Mill grind is
expected to recover from the
low first quarter pace and
could total 530 million
bushel? for the whole year.
Price relationships and
prospective low livestock
and poultry output are ex
pected to keep wheat feeding
well below the level of recent
years. Tight feed gram
supplies combined with low
quality wheat could result in
additional feeding during the
remaining 3 quarters,
pushing total 1974-75 feed use
to around 100 million
bushels. These demand
projections would cause
ending stocks to remain
about unchanged from the
low level of last July 1.
Wheat prices have firmed
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AARON S. GROFF & SON
FARM & DAIRY STORE
R D 3, Ephrata, Pa 17522 fHinkletown] Phone 354-0744
Store Hours 7AM to 9 P M
Closed lues & Sat at 5 30 P M
Wheat Supplies Down 6 Percent
since July after recovering
from last spring’s sharp
decline. Farm prices by mid-
October had risen to $4.85
per bushel, 20 percent above
the July level. Worsening
crop situations in major
exporting countries and
slow-paced marketings by
U.S. farmers have been the
primary reasons for recent
strength in prices. With
heavy exports expected the
remainder of the season,
wheat prices are expected to
continue strong for the
balance of the 1974-75 crop
year.
Hard Red Winter (HRW):
Stress from disease and
weather limited the U.S.
HRW wheat crop to 880
million bushels, 8 percent
below last year’s record
level. Sharply lower feeding
is expected as wheat prices
remain well above those of
the major feed grains and
with substantially smaller
numbers of cattle and hogs
of feed. An increase in 1974-
75 mill grind of HRW is
expected now thatHRW wheat
has regained its usual price
premium over HRW.
Prospects for exports of
HRW are good, perhaps as
much as 600 million bushels.
Hard Red Spring (HRS):
With production down
sharply from earlier
estimates, total HRS sup
plies of 353 million bushels
are about a third less than
last year. Quality of the 1974
crop has also apparently
suffered. Exports may total
around 140 million bushels,
down about 40 percent from
last year, abut still enough to
draw ending stocks to their
lowerst level in over a
quarter centure. The
scarcity of protein wheats is
reflected in the November
prices of HRS wheats at
Minneapolis, all of which are
a minimum of a dollar a
bushel over last year’s high
levels. The high proteins are
commanding an additional
20 to 30 cents there.
Soft Red Winter (SRW):
Supplies of SRW wheat are
up sharply this year, but a
much larger portion than
normal is grading garlicky
because of an exceptionally
wet spring. Test weights and
protein content are also
reported lower in many
areas. Heavy early season
exports should push total
sales for the year to around
115 million bushels, leaving
180 million bushels for
domestic use and carryover.
Subtracting domestic
requirement for milling and
seed use for the 1975 crop
would leave about 60 million
bushels of questionable •
quality for either feeding or
carryover. Prices have
strengthened, attesting to
the tightening situation.
Durum: With yields held to
their lowest levels since 1970,
this year’s durum crop fell 8
percent short of the 1973
harvest. Orderly marketings
by farmers have generally
held prices firm, mostly in a
$6-7 range. Some damage
similar to that in HRS wheat
is showing up in durum. Color
problems in semolina are
also evident. As a result,
domestic use is falling
behind last year’s brisk
pace. Export bookings are
currently less than 25 million
bushels, but sales could pick
up to near the 1973 level by
year’s end. If so, stocks
would remain unchanged at
about 25 million bushels.
White: Spared the worst of
1974’s horrendous weather,
producers were able to
harvest 250 million bushels
of white wheat, 40 percent
more than in 1073. Most of
the production occurred in
the Pacific Northwest and no
unusual quality problems
are evident yet. Most of the
35 million bushels of Eastern
white crop will go into
domestic milling. As usual,
most of the white wheat crop
in the West is expected to
move into export, perhaps
close to 200 million bushels.
Stocks next July 1 are ex
pected to be unchanged at
about 20 million bushels As
with the other cla*. J prices
for white wheat at Portland
have strengthened since
harvesttime, rising above $5
per bushel.
World wheat supplies are
expected to dwindle due to a
production decline in 1974-75.
World wheat production is
currently estimated at 352
million metric tons, down 4
percent from but second only
to the record 1973 harvest.
The larger U.S. wheat crop
will be offset by declines
primarily in Canada,
Australia, and USSR.
Argentina’s output may be
down also, but only slightly.
World trade is expected to be
up moderately, as major
exporting countries attempt
to satisfy import demand.
Production problems in
several major importing
countries will help to
maintain the brisk pace in
world trade.
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