U.S. Meat Imports Trend Down
In Face of Rising World Surplu
By K. SUZANNE EARLY and ARTHUR F. HAUSAMANN
Foreign Commodity Analysis,
Livestock and Livestock Products
Foreign Agricultural Service
IMPORTS OF FRESH and chilled meat
into the United States in 1974 may
fall 18 percent below those of last year,
for the first time in 2 years slipping
under the trigger point for Federal meat
import quotas that were suspended in
mid-1972,
However, the decline comes at a time
of still-mounting beef surpluses abroad,
which portend future problems in the
world market should producers decide
to liquidate some of the additional cattle
they have been holding on pasture.
The new estimate sees U S. imports
of fresh, chilled, and frozen beef, veal,
mutton, and goatmeat totaling 1.1 bil
lion pounds, product weight, in 1974,
compared with about 1.3 billion in each
of the previous 2 years. This represents
an 8 percent decline from estimates
made in July and a 16-million-pound
drop below the quota trigger level of the
Meat Import Law (P.L. 88-482).
The slowing import pace is the result
of low prices in the United States for
manufacturing grade beef, favorable
pasture conditions in major exporting
countries, and higher shipping costs and
labor problems in Australia—tar the
largest source of U.S. meat imports.
As a result, Australia alone is ship--
ping 200 million pounds less meat than
it did in 1973. In fact, only Ireland is
increasing shipments to the United
States in 1974—by about 28 million
pounds.
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Not so certain, however, is what will
happen next year ns a result of the tight
ening import restrictions in other mar
kets and the worsening financial prob
lems of livestock producers.
Outside the United States, the world
market lor meat has been steadily nar
rowed by trade restrictions. The Euro
pean Community since July has had a
ban on all imports of beef and veal,
which is due to be lifted at the end of
October hut probably will be extended
through the spring of 1975. Canada on
August 12 imposed import quotas on
beef and live cattle, and Japan has is
sued no new beef import quotas since
October 1973.
The United States thus stands as the
only major unrestricted market for beef
imports, and already has begun receiv
ing a larger percentage of total trade
than in the recent past. However, earlier
fears that this country might become a
dumping ground for meat have failed
to materialize.
The reason is that livestock producers
in the major exporting countries, faced
with the r ospect of marketing at low
prices or holding their animals on pas
ture, have temporarily opted for the
latter—a move encouraged by unus
ually favorable pasture conditions m
major producing countries.
As a result, while cattle slaughter has
turned up—especially in European
countries—herd increases have contm-
ucd, and an estimated IS million head
of cattle will be added to inventories
this year. Somewhat offsetting these
larger potential beef supplies will be
lower levels of pork production starting
in the fall of 1974.
S
Supplies of beef arc steadily mount
ing—particularly in the European Com
munity—and have prompted some re
cent highly discounted sales to the
Soviet Union.
Major importers. U S. beef and veal
production is climbing faster than had
been expected Current estimates indi
cate an 8 percent gain in output, com
pared with 6 percent forecast in July.
Production in January-August was 15.2
billion pounds for an 8 percent increase
from th; 1973 period
U.S. cattle numbers as of July 1 were
also up—by 7.4 million head from a
year earlier to 138 3 million head —
with about 90 percent of the cattle on
ranges and grassland, compared with 85
percent in 1973.
Slaughterings of grass-fattened ani
mals also have risen—by an estimated
300,000 head in the first 7 months.
However, placements of cattle on feed
in seven states were down 20 percent in
the first 9 months of 1974. As a result,
prices for feeder cattle are down and
expected to remain depressed at around
$25-$35 per 100 pounds, through the
fall months.
This, in turn, is affecting prices of
manufacturing beef—the category into
which most U.S. beef imports fall.
Hence, while prices for imported cow
beef (f.o.b, port of entry 30 days)
strengthened in August to 80 cents per
pound, they soon began to slide, reach
ing a late September level of about 63
cents—the lowest since January 1972.
On the other hand, supplies of cattle
finished in feedlots are down, reflecting
the higher cost of animal feed, causing
Source
Australia
New Zealand
Mexico
Canada
Ireland
United Kingdom
Caribbean area
Total
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U.S. IMPORTS OF FRESH, CHILLED, AND FROZEN BEEF. VEAL,
MUTTON, AND GOATMEAT 1
4 [ln millions of pounds, product weight]
leat Import Law (P.L. 88-482).
Lancaster Farming, Saturday, Nov. 16.1974
prices for fed cattle to remain steady.
This trend is expected to continue
through the fall.
CtNADA has been experiencing much
the same problems as the United
Slates and has moved to attack these
through a beef price stabilization pro
gram which includes quotas on imports
(Foreign Agriculture, September 30,
1974). The quotas, based on average
imports of slaughter cattle and fresh
and frozen beef and veal during 1969-
73, limit imports to 82,826 head of
cattle and 125.8 million pounds of beef
and veal.
Partly because of the program, cow
beef prices in Canada, which arc nor
mally below those in the United States,
are now about on par. This is expected
to increase Canadian manufacturing
beef prices and could divert some Aus
tralian and New Zealand shipments into
Canada from the United States. How
ever, such shipments would be limited
by a provision in the new Canadian
regulation allowing no more than 30
percent of the annual quota to enter in
any one quarter (14 million pounds for
Australia and 18 million pounds for
New Zealand,
Cattle numbers on Canadian farms
as of June 1 totaled 15 million head—
-6 percent above those of January 1,
1974. However, cattle slaughter at pub
lic stockyards and Federally inspected
packing plants between January 1 and
August 10 had risen only 1 percent
above the 1973 level.
In the European Community, the
embargo on beef, veal, and cattle im
ports is expected to drop net beef and
veal imports to about 440 million
pounds (carcass weight equivalent)—a
mere 28 percent of the 1,685 million
pounds imported in 1973.
[Continued On Page 26j
727.5 708.0 505.0
266.2 290.9 285.0
81.9 67.1 50.0
58.3 55.3 40.0
30.9 21.8 50.0
5.0
180.0
190.6 211.1
1,355.5 1,354.4 1,115.0
1972 1973
15
Estimated
1974