o—Lancaster Farming, Saturday, Nov. 9, 1974
1
Farm Commentary
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USDATOBACCO • turers used about two-thirds foreign-
SITUATION REPORT grown and one-third domestic
Grown oubide the major U.S. tobacco in cigars. Cigar manufac
drought areas, tobacco is in good turersmay further increase the share
shape this year.in comparison with of imported tobacco
other ma/or field crops. This year's
tobacco crop is one-seventh larger
than in 1973, but a smaller carryover
is reducing supply for the 1974-75
marketing year by 2 percent. This
tenth straight annual decline would
leave the supply of 5 billion pounds a
little short of manufacturers’ and
exporters’ desired balance with
utilization.
The September 1 estimate is for a
crop of about 2 billion pounds (in
cluding Puerto Rico) up 15 percent 0 *
from 1973. This results from a 9
percent larger acreage and yields
forecast 6 percent higher. Carryover
of tobacco for the 1974-75 marketing
/ear (beginning July 1 for flue-cured
and cigar wrapper types, October 1
for all others) is down about 10
percent.
Disappearance in 1974-75 may
total near the 2.1 billion pounds of
<tie marketing y§ar now ending. Gams
•n U.S. cigarette production and
strong demand for high value tobacco
n foreign markets mean record levels
of use for U.S. flue-cured. Burley
benefits from the worldwide surge in
the output of blended cigarettes. But
it's difficult to believe that the
worldwide sag in consumer buying
power will not affect the tobacco
industry, especially with consumer
outlays already swollen by rising food
and energy prices.
For the year ending next June, U.S.
cigarette output is expected to ex
ceed the 652 billion cigarettes
produced in fiscal year 1974.
Population and per capita con
sumption are increasing. Cigarette
prices have increased only
moderately in comparison with the
inflationary spiral the rest of the
economy is experiencing. Persons 18
and older will smoke more cigarettes
m calendar 1974 than last year’s 208
packs per capita, raising total U.S.
cigarette consumption by 4 percent
Chewing tobacco output continues on
the upswing By contrast, for large
cigars, snuff, and smoking tobacco,
the outlook is for continuation of
stable or declining trends.
Despite lower tobacco supplies and
higher prices, leaf exports this fiscal
year may equal last season’s 657
million pounds (730 million, farm
sales weight)..Reduced stocks and
production shortfalls are still evident
in other countries, and this year’s
flue-cured crop has been actively
sought by buyers for both major and
minor destinations. The United
Kingdom, a major U.S. export
destination, increased its takings m
1973-74 but may take less this
season, although the trade embargo
with Rhodesia continues. Japan is
expected to take more U S tobacco
and West Germany may take about
the same
U S manufacturers’ stocks of
imported cigarette types of tobacco
on July I represented 2Vz years'
usings With foreign tobacco enjoying
a price advantage, US tobacco im
ports for cigarettes in 1974-75 may
rise above last fiscal year’s 200
million pounds Imports for con
sumption in 1973-74 rose 23 million
pounds
In 1973-74 US. cigar manufac-
Wheat Stocks Up,
But Other Grains Down
Stocks of wheat were up, but Oc
tober 1 stocks of all other grains were
sharply below year-earlier levels,
USDA reported last week.
ALL WHEAT in storage totaled
1.546 billion (1 billion, 546 million)
bu., up 6 pet. from a year earlier,
though DURUM WHEAT stocks, at
87.9 million bu., were down 10 pet.
from Oct. 1, 1973. Off-farm stocks of
all wheat, at 882 million bu., were up
5 pet.; farm holdings, at 664 million
bu., were up 8 pet. from a year ago.
Off-farm holdings of DURUM WHEAT
totaled 24 million bu., up 12 pet., but
farm stocks, at 63.9 million bu., were
down 16 pet.
Oct. 1 stocks of the four feed grains
- corn, oats, barley and sorghum -
totaled 33.7 million tons, 25 pet.
below a year ago.
Old crop CORN holdings, at 481
million bu., were down 32 pet. from a
year earlier and the lowest for the
date since 1948. CORN stocks on
farms totaled 287 million bu., down
29 pet.; off-farm holdings, at 195
million bu., were down 36 pet. from a
year earlier.
Old crop SORGHUM GRAIN totaled
62 million bu., down 15 pet. from a
year earlier and the lowest for the
date since 1954. Farm stocks of 18.5
million-bu., were up 34 pet, but off
farm holdings, at 43.1 million bu.,
were down 27 pet. from Oct. 1,1973.
OATS in storage totaled 667 million
bu., down 16 pet. from a year earlier
and the lowest Oct. 1 holdings since
records began in 1943. Off-farm
stocks of 155 million bu., were down
22 pet; farm holdings, at 522 million
bu., were down 14 pet. from a year
earlier and the lowest since 1934.
BARLEY in storage Oct. 1 totaled
321 million bu., down 24 pet. from a
year earlier. Off-farm stocks of 126
million bu, were down 8 pet; farm
stocks, at 194 million bu., were down
32 pet. from a year earlier.
RYE stocks totaled 20.8 million bu.,
down 44 pet from a year earlier and
the lowest Oct. 1 holdings since 1952.
Off-farm stocks, at 9 million bu., were
down 59 pet., farm stocks were down
20 pet. (Stocks of Grains).
There’s A World Surplus,
But Meat Imports Are Down
U.S. imports of fresh and chilled
meat may fall as much as 18 pet. this
year. This, despite still-mounting
surpluses of beef abroad.
The reason; Low prices. With U.S.
meat production up sharper than had
been expected, the price of
manufacturing grade beef has been
low. Combine this with higher
shipping costs and labor problems in
Australia - far the largest source of
U.S. meat imports -- and you’ve
figured out why Australia, alone, is
shipping 200 million lbs. less meat to
the U.S. this year.
Elsewhere, the beef surplus has
caused steadily narrowed trade
restrictions. In the EEC, for example,
there’s been a ban on all imports of
beef and veal. Canada imposed im
port quotas on beef and live cattle in
August, and Japan has issued no
beef import quotas since Oct. 1973.
GOD'S PATRIOT
Lcmoo for NorembtrlO, 1974
Background Scripture:
Jeremiah 1:1-10; 37 through
38.
Devotional Reading:
Jeremiah 1:4-10.
One man’s patriot may be
another’s traitor.
- During World War 11, for
example, a number of
Germans plotted against
Hitler and almost succeeded
in assassinating him. Most of
these men were soon
rounded-up and executed.
The few survivors today are
regarded by some of their
countrymen as patriots,
while others look upon them
as traitors.
Similarly, a significant
number of Americans
vigorously opposed
America’s participation in
the Viet Nam War. Some of
these refused to bear arms in
this conflict on the grounds
of conscience. Many
Americans today regard
these men as traitors to their
country, but others see them
as true patriots.
Patriotism and treachery
are obviously a matter of
perspective.
Surrender
There were times in the
history of Israel when this
question was significantly
posed. . The prophet
Jeremiah was one man who
was regarded by many of his
fellow countrymen as a
traitor, while others saw him
as a ' patriot. From our
perspective today there
seems little doubt that
Jeremiah’s prophetic
ministry was patriotically
beneficial for his nation.
That many of his con
temporaries saw him dif
ferently, however, is evident
and understandable.
Judah had already tasted
defeat once at the hands of
Nebuchadnezzer and his
Babylonian armies.
Jerusalem had been
conquered and ten thousand
Jews, including the king,
were carried off into exile.
Zedekiah was placed on the
throne by the Babylonians
and it was assumed he would
be a puppet ruler.
At this same time,
however, Egypt was vying
with the Babylonians for
power and the young king of
Judah began to toy with the
idea of allying himself with
Egypt so as to resist the
demands of Babylonia. The
prophet Jeremiah greatly
opposed this plan, but he was
denounced and ignored.
The price of prophecy
Jeremiah had been right,
however, and soon the nation
of Judah found itself under
seige once again. The
prophet counseled his people
to submit to the Babylonians
lest greater disaster should
overtake the nation. His
fellow countrymen were
whocked and outraged that
this “man of God” would
counsel such traitorous
action..
What they did not un
derstand were his motives.
Jeremiah did not counsel
surrender because he liked
the Babylonians, or because
he disliked his own nation,
nor because he felt the
enemy was right or just. His
counsel was based upon
nothing but Jeremiah’s
..
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NOW IS
THE TIME...
Max Smith
County Agr. Agent
Telephone 3M-6851
TO REQUEST FEED
RECOMMENDATIONS
A vital part of forage
testing is the feeding
suggestions that are to be
made depending upon the
quality of the forage. Many
beef and dairymen get their
crops tested but do not
request feeding suggestions.
With the high price of Jecd
grains the value of feeding
less grain and more forage
becomes more important.
Our livestock specialists
stress the merits of getting
more feed nutrients from
forage and less from grain in
order to keep down feed
costs. Forage testing along
with feeding recom
mendations is getting the
proper start on existing feed
costs..
TO PROTECT
LIVESTOCK WASTE
The fertilizer situation
continues to be critical with
scarcity and higher costs to
be experienced in 1975.
Barnyard manure is still a
very valuable farm by
product and every effort
should be made to preserve
all of the fertilizer elements.
To allow manure to be
outside during the winter
months is to lose valuable
fertilizer. If it cannot be
spread on fields during the
fall and winter months (soil
injection is the best method),
then the manure should be
protected from the weather
and be placed in a water
tight pit or enclosure.
Manure spread on land with
vegetative cover during the
fall and winter, when the
ground is not frozen or snow
covered, could be a good
method, providing there is
not too much slope to the
field. Proper manure
storage and handling gets
Farm
Calendar
Saturday, November 9
9 - 15th Keystone In
ternational Livestock
Exposition at the Farm
Show Building in
Harrisburg.
Sunday, November 10
10 - 13th Pennsylvania
Farmer’s Association
Meeting with
headquarters at the Penn
Harris Motor Inn,
Harrisburg.
Southeastern Grape
Association Meeting at
the Farm and Home
Center 1:30 p.m.
conviction that this was
God’s will. Actually, the
advice he was trying to give
was intended to save the
nation from further suf
fering.
Because he attempted to
be faithful to God’s will,
Jeremiah was judged by his
people to be a traitor. In
God’s sight, however, this
“traitor” was one of the
nation’s great patriots.
more important each year
for other reasons than
pollution.
TO ERADICATE
CATTLE PARASITES
In areas with high
livestock population the
problem of internal and
external parasites becomes
more acute. On farms where
there have been heavy
livestock numbers for years,
many of the worm eggs and
spores are present to re
infest the animals. Every
dairyman and cattle feeder
should make certain that he
is not feeding a bunch of
worms in addition to his
cattle. Beef calves imported
into the county from states
south of Pennsylvania are
often infested with stomach
worms. Feed grains are too
expensive to be wasted on
wormy cattle. Every
producer should be sure to
test feces from several
animals in the group and
learn of the worm in
festation.
TOPREVENT t
FARM FIRES
Good fire prevention
practices are the best way to
decrease the threat and
protect both man and beast.
The winter season is ap
proaching when most barns
are full of crops and
livestock. Every farm
worker and owner should be
- briefed on eliminating -fire
hazards andin the use of fire
extinguishers. We hope that
every fanner has one or
more extinguishers in or
near the barn or farm
buildings, and that it is in
good working order, and
finally, that every member
of the family knows how to
operate it. If this is not true,
then we’d suggest that steps
be taken at once to provide
this protection.
Monday, November 11
Twin Valley Adult Farmers
first monthly meeting.
Vo*ag classroom at the
Twin Valley High School
7:30 p.m.
James Beattie, Dean of the
College of Agriculture,
Penn State, speaking to
the noon convention of
PPA members,
Harrisburg.
Tuesday, November 12
14th Annual Ag-Industry
Banquet, Lancaster
Farm and Home Center,
J. E. Loaning, president
of Kellogg Co., speaking.
Organizational meeting for
those interested in a
Lancaster County Junior
Holstein Club. Farm and
Home Center at 8:00 p.m.
Editor’s Quote Book
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gacious friend in the affans
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Plautus
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