10—Lancaster Firming, Saturday. Nov. 2, 1974
Farm Commentary
Corn, Soybean Seed Supply
Seen Tight
U.S. agriculture officials haven't
;ompletely determined how bad this
year’s corn and soybean harvest will
oe, but there is already' some bad
news about next year's crops: Seed is
going to be in tight supply, more
axpensive and of uncertain quality
according to a report this week in the
Wall Street Journal.
That means farmers are going to
lave a tougher time rebuilding the
nation's extremely low corn and
soybean supplies. Last week the
Agriculture Department said U.S.
stocks of corn on Oct. 1 are at a 26-
year low.
This year the corn and soybeans
that were being grown commercially
for seed were hit by the same heavy
spring rains, summer drought and
aarly-autumn frosts that have
crippled crops generally.
The loss to seed corn corn
planted for future seed use nearly
wiped out the modest surpluses with
which some companies began the
growing season. Pioneer Hi-Bred
international Inc., Des Moines, and
DeKalb Agßesearch Inc., DeKalb, 111.,
which together sell about half the 20
million bags of seed corn produced
each year, both report their 15
percent to 25 percent carry-overs
were practically wiped out by
corresponding field losses. Pioneer,
DeKalb and other major producers
were fortunate, however, because
their fields are dispersed over wide
geographical areas and some plots
escaped major damage.
But many of the 200 local and
regional seed-corn companies that
together produce about 25 percent of
the total supply saw their closely
clustered fields suffer severe losses.
That means their regular customers
will be trying to buy from the major
producers, who aren’t quite prepared
to take on too many more customers.
The soybean-seed picture is still
hazy, but may be equally bleak.
Farmers have been watching the
developments anxiously and have
been ordering seed, especially for
corn, at a record pace. The most
popular sizes and varieties of the
major producers are in short supply
already and some smaller companies’
entire inventories are already sold
out, sources say. Most of the seed will
be delivered after the first of the year.
Most farmers have reconciled
themselves to paying at least 20
percent more for corn and nearly 50
percent more for soybean seed.
Though companies this year are
shying away from publicly quoting
probable prices, farmers apparently
will have to pay about $42 for a bag of
seed corn capable of planting about
four acres, up from $35 last year and
about $l3 for a bag of soybean seed
that will sow one acre, up from $9
These expected prices for seed easily
could be higher, depending on the
extent of the frost damage
Cattle, Hog Price Predictions
Feed supplies and prices are the
critical concerns to the livestock
industry in the months ahead
Prospects for reduced feed grain and
soybean output have resulted in
rising feed prices and cutbacks in
livestock feeding. Hog producers are
planning to farrow the fewest number
of sows this fall since 1965. Numbers
of cattle on feed are the fewest in
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over 6 years and poultry production
is being cut a tenth, according to
USDA’s current Livestock and Meat
Situation report.
However, since it takes time for hog
producers to respond to the changing
feed situation, hog slaughter this fall
will continue to run moderately above
a year ago. Hog prices are expected to
average lower than summer as
slaughter increases seasonally. But
look for smaller supplies and higher
prices next year. On September 1
there were 7 percent fewer hogs in
the lighter weight groups that will
make up the bulk of winter slaughter
supplies. Farrowing intentions
suggest even further cutbacks in
spring slaughter. Average slaughter
weights will run under the record
levels of last winter and spring. The
combination of reduced numbers
slaughtered and lighter slaughter
weights in the first half of 1975 could
drop pork output 10-15 percent
below January-June 1974.
These slaughter patterns and
production levels suggest seasonally
declining prices for hogs this fall,
followed by a strong market into mid
-1975.
Cattle slaughter this fall is running
moderately above both year-earlier
and summer levels, with all of the
increase in cows, and steers and
heifers with little grain feeding
background. Gram-fed cattle
slaughter is trailing last fall but
probably will total a little larger than
in the summer. Average cattle
slaughter weights are now lighter
than in the summer or a year ago.
Fed cattle prices this fall likely will
average below the $44 summer
average of Choice steers at Omaha
but above the $4O October-
December 1973 average. Prices are
expected to strengthen some in the
first half of 1975 as marketings of
cows and nonfed steers and heifers
decline when pastures green up
again, and pork and poultry output
declines.
Feeder cattle supplies are large but
prices are not expected to drop much
below current levels, especially in the
South and Southeastern States.
Short-run demand for feeder cattle
could improve if the profit outlook for
cattle feeders improves. Feeder
prices may strengthen seasonally
next winter and spring as the heavy
seasonal run subsides.
Pastures have improved in the East
and Southwest, but hay supplies are
down from last year and dry con
ditions persist in the range areas of
the West. If there is an open winter,
carryover in grazing areas of calves,
yearlings, and cows ipto next year will
be very large but heavy snows would
force more cattle to be marketed and
push prices lower than now expected.
Lamb slaughter will run under
year-earlier levels through the
balance of 1974 and through the first
half of next year. Slaughter lamb
prices may average near or above
year-earlier levels this fall but rising
feed prices will keep feeder lambs
lower. Lamb prices early next year
will run near this year’s first half
average with large beef supplies
mostly offsetting the effect of smaller
lamb marketings.
I AM NOT MAN!
Lmkb for November 1,1974
Background Scripture:
Hosea 4:1-3,6; 6:1-2; 7:4-7;
11:8,9.
Devotional Reading: Hosea
14:1-7
Asked what he’s going to
be when he grows up, little
Linus, one of the“peanuts”
cartoon characters, answers
brightly: “I’m going to be a
prophet of gloom!”
I can understand how the
prophet’s role might have a
certain vocational appeal.
The essence of that role, it
would appear, is to “go
around telling people they’re
going to ‘get it,” as one boy
put it. That’s what it seems
to be when we read some of
the prophetic books in the old
testment. It is not difficult to
find two great themes
running throughout; (1) you
people are evil, and (2) you
null be punished for it.
it.
A Compassionate God
Yet, there is more to the
prophet’s role than to
pronounce condemnation
and gloom. The prophet
Jonah learned this the-hard
way. When, at last, God
persuaded him to go to
Nineveh to prophesy, the
people of that city sur
prisingly repented and God
spared them. This only made
Jonah angry for he had
looked forward to the
destruction of Ninevah.
Obviously, he did not really
understand the purpose of
prophecy.
Hosea did. however, and
along with the other two
named above, we find still a
third theme in his book: God
desires repentance so that he
may forgive, not destroy, his
children!
To be sure, there is
much gloomy prophecy in
Hosea. “Therefore the land
mourns,” he promises, “and
all who dwell un it
languish .. .” (4:3). And
later: “All of them are hot as
an oven, and they devour
their rulers. All their kings
have fallen; and none of
them calls on me” (7:7)
A Heart That Recoils
Yet, along with the image
of the Mighty Judge of the
Universe, there is also a
picture of a compassionate
God, who, although he
abhors the sinfulness of his
people, wants their repen
tance, not their punishment.
Hosea pictures God as
crying out: “How can I give
you up, 0 Ephraim!
(another name for the nation
of Israel), How can I hand
you over, 0 Israel! ” (11:8a).
So great is his love for
Israel that it surpasses the
monstrous evil of this
people: “My heart grows
warm and tender” (11:8c).
The real purpose of the
prophecies, then, are to call
the people to acknowledge
their rebellion and seek
God’s forgiveness. “Come,
let us return to the Lord; for
he has torn that he may heal
us” (6:1). says the prophet
Hosea.
The love and compassion
of God are always difficult to
understand for our responses
are conditioned by the
vindictiveness of men. When
a man is wronged as God has
been wronged by his people,
punishment, not mercy, is
called for. Yet, God’s
response is different; it is a
| NOW IS
| THE TIME...
Max Smith
County Agr. Agent
Telephone 3#4-€Bsl
To Respect
Property Rights
The small game hunting
season brings the problem of
trespassing on land owned by
others. Every hunter should
respect the man who owns
the land and get permission
from him before hunting.
Many urban and sub-urban
hunters enter land that is not
posted thinking they have
every right to do so. Don’t
forget that the land belongs
to another person who has
the right to say whether or
not there will be any hunting.
Also, shooting near buildings
or near livestock is
dangerous and should not be
tolerated. Many landowners
will grant permission for
hunters if they are respectful
and courteous.
To Handle Corn
Equipment Safely
The mechanical corn
picker needs special at
tention in order to prevent
serious injuries. Corn
picking is in full swing at this
time and we hope all
operators will take the time
to stop their machine while
cleaning or making ad
justments. We know of some
farmers who wish they had
been more careful. All
shields and guards should be
kept in place and loose
fitting clothing should not be
worn. Even though some
pieces of machinery, in
cluding tractors, get blamed
for many farm accidents, it
is the operator or farmer
that gets reckless and causes
the injury in most cases.
Take time to be safe and live
longer with all your ex
tremities.
Farm
Calendar
Monday, November 4
Manheim Young Farmers
monthly meeting,
Manheim Central High
School, discussion topic,
“Futures”.
Wednesday, November 6
Pennsylvania Young Far
mers annual convention,
Seven Springs, Pa.
Continues through
November 7
9:00 a.m. - Symposium on
converting poultry waste
to energy, feed, fertilizer.
J. 0. Keller Conference
Center, Penn State
Thursday, November 7
1:45 a.m. or 6:15 p.m. - Penn
State Dairy Feeding and
Health Clinic, sponsored
jointly by York and
Lancaster County ex
tension. 11:45 at Quality
Court Motel, Lancaster.
6:15 at Avalong Dairy
Restaurant, York
County.
6:30 p.m. - Lancaster County
Poultry Association
annual banquet, Good &
Plenty Restaurant.
Friday, November 8
Northeast Egg Marketing
Association annual
way of redeeming love and
mercy, for the Lord is God
and not man.
fw»v— f **.
To Care For
Electric Motors
Proper care will add years
to the life of an electric
motor. The most important
thing about caring for an
electric motor is to keep it
clean and well ventilated. A
dirty motor runs hot, and
heat is a motor’s worst
enemy. A dirty motor
becomes a hot motor, and a
hot motor is a definite fire
hazard. An occasional
wiping is all that is needed on
an enclosed motor; an open
motor needs more attention
and vacuum cleaners are
helpful. Lubrication should
follow the manufacturer’s
suggestions because they
vary with the make of motor.
Both safety and longer life
can be attained by proper
care of all electric motors
now.
To Try For
Lower Costs
This is not easy when all
input items seem to cost
more each month. However,
gains in weight and milk
production costs can be kept
lower through good
management and using
more forage crops and less
high-priced grains. The
objective of topping the
market with cattle, or
having the highest milk
production in the county, are
good goals but at this time
will cost the producer
money. Efficiency is very
important in having lower
production costs. Parasite
control needs some attention
in order to get better ef
ficiency. Healthy animals
will make better use of all
inputs and are the ones to
make ends meet at this time.
meeting, Marriott Motor
Hotel, Newton, Mass.
7:00 p.m, - Pennsylvania
Egg Marketing
Association monthly
meeting, Colonial Motor
Inn, Denver.
Saturday, November 9
18th annual Keystone In
ternation Livestock
Exposition begins in
Farm Show Building at
Harrisburg. Continues
through November 15
Sunday, November 10
Pennsylvania Farmers
Association annual
meeting, Penn Harris
Motor Inn, Harrisburg.
Continues through
November 13.
1:30 p.m. - Southeast Grape
Industry Association
monthly meeting, Farm
and Home Center,
Lancaster.
Editor’s Quote Book
The whole, though larger
than any of its parts, does not
necessarily obscure their sep
arate identities.
William O. Douglas
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