European Beef
IConttoMd from Pago 2S|
(widely seen as a short-lived phenome
non) encouraged herd expansion—due
to the speculative holding back of
market-weight cattle in hopes of a price
rebound.
The potential for increased beef pro
duction created by this herd expansion
began to be idealized in the last quarter
of 1973 as large numbers of cattle
started moving to market. Combined
cattle and calf slaughterings in the last
quarter of 1973 were 12 percent above
those of the same quarter in 1972. (De
spite this, slaughterings in 1973 as a
whole were 14 percent below the 19*M
level, the lowest since the 1950’5.)
Earlier in the year, most observers
predicted an increase of 5-8 percent in
West European beef and veal produc
tion. However, increases in production
in the first half of the year have been
much greater than foreseen. For ex
ample, French production in the first
5 months of 1974 was reported 25 per
cent above that in the same period of
1973 while cattle slaughterings in West
Germany were reported up 23 percent
in the first half of 1974. Production is
expected to slow in the latter part of
1974—in part due to measures taken
by EC and national governments. The
EC has instituted a system of slaughter
subsidies aimed at encouraging cattle
raisers to delay slaughter until early
1975. But it now appears that West
European beef and veal production will
increase by at least 10 percent in 1974.
These expected gains continue the
long-term uptrend in European beef
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STAUFFER
DIESEL, Inc.
. NcvHolmd.Pa.
production. During 1960-73 this trend
was marred only by significant dips in
1964 and 1965 and again in 1972 and
1973. Despite the last drop, average
European beef production for 1970-73
was nearly 20 percent above the average
of 1960-64. However, output of other
meats has risen even faster, dropping
beef and veal’s share of total meat pro
duction from 34 to 30 percent over the
same period (and to 28 percent for 1973
alone).
Ironically, the resumption in beef
production growth coincided with a
falling consumption. After showing
strong growth in the 1960’s—and reach
ing a peak 7.7 million metric tons in
1970—West European consumption of
beef and veal fell in both 1972 and
1973, These declines dropped total con
sumption to 7.4 million and 7.2 million
tons, respectively, in the 2 years as
domestic supplies contracted and con
sumer resistance to high prices became
apparent.
Per capita consumption of beef and
veal has shown a parallel trend, increas
ing by 27 percent between 1960 and
1970 but since falling nearly 9 percent.
And while consumption in the Mediter
ranean area has risen steadily, that in
Denmark, the Netherlands, Sweden,
and the United Kingdom has actually
declined since 1960.
The share of beef and veal in total
meat consumption has also fallen in all
but four countries (Austria, Greece,
Portugal, and Spain). For the region,
it has dropped from 34 to about 30
percent.
XXX
U.S.’ Biggest Customers
Japan and West Germany
were the biggest customers
for U.S. farm exports in
fiscal 1973. Together they
purchased |9.3 billion worth,
or 72 percent of the nation’s
total farm exports.
Would You Believer
The average American
eats 1,500 pounds of food
every year.
BEEFSTARTER-AUREO
\n \ 100 0(10 ('SIM nits
\ it I) 10 000 I SIM nits
\it I 12 s Ini I nils
Vn K
\ n Hi 12 mi’s
I’m ujimakm
ViiLoimun' 150 mgs
Sull.imi.lh 1/1 ik 150 mgs
Riboll.ivm 10 mgs
d (’.ml \i.u.l 75 mus
Ni.kiii 150 mgs
I luiliiK C liloiull 750 nigs
71 pms
.5 J urns
C ilunm
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Still in
Pol.isMiim
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lion lioni
Iron Still,Ml
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C oh ill
You’ll have a hard time matching the quality and price of this beef
starter.
Daily intake listed above
Beefstarter A-S-700 Less then 15c per day
Beefmaker 80AX as low as 8c per day
TB2 Wormer Treatment 90c for 500 lb. calf
McNESS THE NUTRITION PEOPLE
IS mgs
27S |h
2 unis
2 gins
I Ih mgs
1(10 mgs
S 7 niii-.
11 mgs
2 mgs
2 mgs
WHERE VITIMANS AND MINERALS GET THE EMPHASIS
PHONE 215-445-6983 or 717-733-7541
Up until recently, prices have been
the prime factor behind these consump
tion changes. Between 1968 and 1972,
retail prices widely turned against beef
and veal in favor of pork and poultrv
meat. This was reversed in 1973 as
prices for pork and poultry rose faster
than those for beef But by then many
West European consumers, faced with
sharply rising food budgets, were at
tempting to economize. They did tins
by purchasing more pork and poultry
meat, which despite price gains were
still considerably cheaper than beef on
a per pound basis.
Historically, beef and veal consump
tion in Western Europe has shown a
very close correlation with domestic
production. In 1974, however, consump
tion is expected to stay at about the
low level of 1973 as a result of the
following factors:
• The economic slowdown in West
ern Europe. Aggregate GNP is expected
to be up only 1.7 percent in 1974 in
real terms. At the same time, double
digit inflation is expected in practically
all countries.
• Severe balance-of-payments prob
lems. Many countries may take meas
ures to discourage imports. For ex
ample, Italy imposed a 50-percent cash
deposit (non-interest bearing) on many
imported commodities, including beef.
(This was later reduced to 25 percent for
beef. However, it was removed entirely
for most other agricultural imports.)
• The EC increase in beef target
prices—12 percent for 1974-75 and
40 percent since 1970. The EC support
system, plus the price rigidity shown
by European retail outlets, will keep
beef prices high.
• Competition from other meats.
Supplies of pork and poultry are ample
this year and wholesale prices of these
products have already fallen consider
ably more than beef prices. Price sup
port mechanisms for these products are
weaker than those for beef.
European beef and veal consump
tion in the current year is unlikely
to rise substantially above 1973 levels
unless the European Community decides
to let beef prices fall sharply below
intervention levels or to directly sub-
S-700
Lancaster Farming, Saturday, Oct 12,1974
sidizc beef consumption. Thus far. the
EC has shown little inclination to follow
cither approach, although, as noted
earlier, there arc plans to step up efforts
to move beef through ‘‘welfare"
channels.
Looking to the near future, high
levels of beef production can be ex
pected to continue into 1975 and prob
ably 1976 as well. This anticipated
growth reflects the large increase in herd
size over the past few years, which has
allowed sizable gains in meat production
without reducing the potential for future
output.
About 80 percent of West European
cattle slaughter takes place in the
European Community, where a 10-
percent increase in 1974 production
could occur with only a slight reduction
in the current herd growth rate In fact,
an increase in the EC slaughter rate to
about 36 percent (27 percent for cattle
and 9 percent for calves) would be re
quired to reduce herd size in 1975 by
about I percent, and this would imply
a 1974 production gain of 27 percent.
While the slaughter rate for adult cattle
has not previously reached 27 percent,
that for calves was considerably higher
than 9 percent in earlier years. These
changes reflect the growing tendency
toward production of beef, rather than
veal.
Increases in beef production in the
near future could be lessened if farmers
begin to market cattle at lighter weights,
or if there is a shift back to greater
veal production. These developments
will be encouraged if, as appears likely,
cattle market prices remain depressed
and feed costs remain high.
While consumption may pick up in
1975, high production will keep beef
imports from outside Western Europe at
relatively low levels.
There is great difference of opinion
as to the longer term outlook for beef
imports, however. Some studies foresee
a sharp rise in Western Europe’s beef
import deficit, whereas others sec it
stabilizing or declining. These differ
ences stem in large part from conflicting
views as to the potential for expanded
production.
MARTIN'S MANUFACTURING CO.
Custom
Made
• FREE STALLS
• BARNYARD FENCES
• SILAGE CARTS in stock
• PIPE GATES 6 ft. to 16 ft.
(every 6") in stock
MARIN'S
MANUFACTURING CO.
DISTRIBUTOR OF CENTRAL TRACTOR PARTS CO.
R.D.3 Myerstown Phone (717) 933-4151
TAKE RT 645 3 MILES NORTH OF MYERSTOWN
FOLLOW DIRECTIONAL SIGNS
* t
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