Another Look At Feed Additive Ban
What would it cost livestockmen
and consumers if we had to slap a
ban on antibiotic feed additives—
ingredients used to promote faster,
more uniform growth in animals.
Around this time a year ago a
team of ERS researchers took that
question to task. They based their
analysis on conditions prevailing in
1970. But as most people know,
there’s been quite a jump since 1970
in the costs of raising livestock and
in the price of red meat at the retail
counter. Put another way, prohibit
ing the use of antibiotic feed addi
tives would have greater economic
consequences today than a couple of
years back.
Now, ERS researchers have
brought their estimates up to date,
as discussion continues over whether
these feed additives pose a hazard to
human health and might have to be
taken off the market. Here are some
of the conclusions based on 1973 con
ditions :
Under the first of two assumptions
used in this study—that producers
feed more animals to keep output at
pre-ban levels—total production costs
would shoot up nearly $BO2 million.
That’s $325 million more, or 68 per-
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cent, than the economists' previous
estimate. Translated to the animal
on-the-roof, this would mean an av
erage cost increase of 75 cents per
100 pounds for cattle and calves and
$2.88 per 100 pounds for hogs.
If the entire cost hike were to be
borne by consumers, they would have
to up meat spending by $8.85 per
person in order to maintain red meat
use at pre-ban levels.
This assumes, however, that live
stock mortality rates would not
change as a direct result of the ban.
In the event death rates did climb,
each 1-percent advance would raise
liveweight production costs by an
additional 16 cents per 100 pounds
for cattle and calves and 20 cents
for hogs to keep output at pre-ban
levels. Total production costs would
soar an additional $96 million.
The second possibility assumed in
this study is that producers would
make no changes in their operations
—i.e., they’d feed the same number
of animals and for the same feeding
periods. If that happened, livestock
output and meat consumption would
sink, with a subsequent rise in meat
prices.
The economists figure total annual
spending for beef, veal, and pork
would increase by $2.1 billion, or
$10.26 per person. Their previous
estimate under this assumption was
$1.6 billion, or 24 percent less than
the latest one.
With no change in demand rela
tionships, livestock producers would
have bigger net returns during the
adjustment period. The combined net
revenue of beef cattle, veal calf) and
1974 Prices
(September Only)
Lancaster County 4-H
Council is currently taking
orders for flower bulbs.
Tulips, daffodils, blue bells,
hyacynths are all available
and guaranteed to grow.
Proceeds from the fflnd
raising campaign will go
toward county 4-H programs
including 4-H Exchange trips
and 4-H Achievement Day.
To place an order, contact
any County Council
representative or the Lan
caster County Extension
Office by October Ist. Any 4-
H member who would like to
sell flower bulbs can pick up
an order blank at the Ex
tension office.
to be
17740
4-H’ers To Sell
Flower Bulbs
DO YOU NEED
USED PARTS
FOR FARM TRACTORS
and
FARM MACHINERY
CALL HARRY STOHLER AT
WENGER FARM MACHINERY
South Race St.
Myerstown Pa. Ph 717-866-2138
Lancaster Farming. Saturday, Sept. 14.1974
hog growers could swell by as much
as $2.5 billion.
Each 1-percent gain in mortality
associated with the ban would lift
meat expenditures by an additional
$261 million, or about $1.26 per
capita. The added increase in pro
ducer net revenues would amount to
some $324 million.
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