Statistic Strategies Developed To Aid In Gypsy Moth War
There’s more to fighting gypsy
moths than biological controls
and pesticides. A good “sampling
poll” is equally important, ac
cording to Dr. G. P. Patil,
professor of statistics at The
Pennsylvania State University.
Dr. Patil and his former
graduate student Dr. William
Stiteler have just completed a
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successful two-year study aimed
at developing statistical
strategies for assessing and
predicting the size of gypsy moth
populations. The study was un
dertaken for the Forestry
Laboratory of the Northeast
Agricultural Experiment Station
(NAES).
It amounts to
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ecological “voter preference
survey” - a system for deter
mining how to sample those few
moths who will best reflect the
behavior of a whole population.
Among the initial strategies
developed by the two statisticians
is a technique dubbed the “PSU
plot system” by Patil. He says,
‘‘with the system, we hope to be
able to tell the NAES ex-
a kind
perimenters when, where, and
how to count the moths and how
much time to spend doing it for
the most efficient and inex
pensive sampling.” He explains
that the system should help the
NAES researchers to accurately
estimate (or predict) the total
number of gypsy moths in an
entire forest from the number
counted in a small sample plot.
“Of course,” Patil adds,
“ultimately we are not interested
only in assessment and predic
tion. We want to help get rid of
the menance.” He emphasizes
that in any war on the gypsy
moths, statistics will supply the
battle plan.
Patil notes that although
researchers have already
developed several kinds of
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controls and pesticides, they still
don’t know the most vulnerable
place or time in the moth’s life
cycle to impose them. But, with
the proper sampling techniques,
he says, NAES experimenters
could assess the number of moths
that survive the application of
each of the available types of
controls. The observations and
experiments could also be
repeated for every stage in the
moth’s life cycle. When all the
data were collected and
analyzed, the most effective
approaches Would emerge.
In the end, Patil insists,
“planning experiments and
analyzing the resulting data are
as important and fruitful an
expertise as executing the ex
periment itself.”
Patil’s newest statistical
“weapons” against the gypsy
moth are already in great
demand both in the U. S. and ab
road. He reports that inquiries
about the techniques have come
from France, England and South
America.
Dr. Patil, a member of the PSU
College of Science faculty since
1964, is a pioneer in the field of
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statistical ecology, the ap
plication of statistics to en
vironmental problems. He is
chairman of the board of the
International Statistical Ecology
Program.
Background on the
Gypsy Moth
The Pennsylvania Department
of Environmental Resources
(DER) estimates that 92,000
acres of forests, mostly in the
eastern counties of the state,
were heavily defoliated during
the summer of 1971 by the gypsy
moth. Another 506,000 acres
suffered light to moderate
defoliation. A 1972 DER survey
shows that 300,000 acres have
been completely stripped of
leaves and roughly 150,000 acres
suffered moderate to light
damage. Again the most severe
defoliation occurred in ,the
eastern third of the state.
Defoliation, the first step in the
damage cycle of the gypsy moth,
is followed by varying degrees of
tree mortality. So far, the gypsy
moth has killed up to 60 percent of
some stands in New Jersey as the
result of repeated defoliation.
Estimates of tree mortality on
Chestnut Ridge in Monroe
County, Pa., run as high as 95
percent.
Gypsy moth larvae, or
caterpillars, prefer to feed on oak
leaves but will also attack a wide
range of other hardwoods and
some conifers.
Berks FFA Holds
Training Session
The Berks County FFA
Leadership Training Conference
was held recently at Governor
Mifflin High School.
Berks County president, Terry
Murray, introduced as guests
three of the State FFA officers:
Greg Landis, vice-president;
Howard Stoltzfus, Eastern
Regional vice-president, and
Gerald Metzler, treasurer.
Landis gave greetings from the
State association and a short talk.
The Greenhand quiz, open only
to first year FFA members, was
conducted by Harvey A. Smith,
area vocational consultant.
Placings in this contest were:
Thomas Peck, Twin Valley, first;
Art Noss, Conrad Weiser,
second; Alice Drey, Governor
Mifflin, third; Mark Angsdadt,
Oley Valley, fourth; Ken Sanner,
Kutztown, fifth; Dennis Whit
man, Brandywine Heights..
sixth; Mike Robinson,
Tulpehocken, seventh, and Scott
Sechler, Hamburg, eighth.
Following a smorgasbord
dinner, the 80 attending FFA
members and advisors from
throughout Berks County divided
into seperate meetings for each
group of officers. The attending
State officers each conducted one
group with County advisors
conducting the others.
Included in the program was
two slide series from the National
FFA on Chapter leadership and
Chapter scholarship.
XXX
State Civil Service employes
have various opportunities to
receive further training in their
special field after they enter state
service. This training facilitates
advancement to more respon
sible positions.
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