—Lancaster Farming-, /Saturday, December 30, 1972
18
Experts Predict
Circa 1980, the pessimist said,
supermarkets will advertise beef
as “the early bird special”—
meaning, if j ou don’t get it early,
you might not get it at all.
Draw a big “X” through that
prediction The U.S. cattle in
dustry won't let it happen.
Beef will not become a scarce
commodity from the way things
are going
According to a nationwide
opinion poll of 295 experts in the
livestock raising industry, cat
tlemen will rise to the challenge
of upping beef output by a third
between now and 1980.
That’s an increase needed to
meet the projections for con
sumption The USDA’s Economic
Research Service foresees total
beef use as reaching 29 billion
pounds in 1980, or enough to allow
consumption to climb to around
127 pounds per person from this
year’s 114.
Experts' credentials
The panel of experts were
selected for their ability to help
shape the future of cattle raising
in their States. Holding positions
of leadership or decisionmaking,
the 295 experts included State and
area extension specialists in beef,
milk, forage production, and
farm management and livestock
marketing, directors of State
beef cattle associations;
prominent cattle producers; and
persons from financial in
stitutions.
ERS asked the panel members,
who remained anonymous to one
another, to assess the future
potential of U S. beef production.
Specifically, each expert was to
estimate the relative importance
of certain factors and the rate of
adoption of production practices
that would affect the number of
cows in his State and the
productivity per cow.
The panel gave cattle prices a
high ranking among factors
influencing cow numbers. The
consensus was that the price of a
choice steer calf (450-500 pounds)
would have to exceed $35 per 100
pounds to give strong en
couragement to expansion of the
beef cow herd. Moreover, the
experts generally expected to see
prices top that level. Measures
o reduce the farm beef price
oelow the necessary level could
jenously threaten the industry’s
ability to meet the expected
leraand
Grand tally
All factors considered, beef
oow numbers nationwide were
estimated at 46 million head in
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1980—9 million more than in 1970.
A herd of this size could supply
nearly 23 billion pounds of beef.
Adding production from the dairy
herd (estimated at somewhat
over 4 billion pounds) and net
imports (almost 2 billion pounds)
gives the total beef supply in 1980
of 29 billion pounds.
Why so much attention to beef
cows in this study? As explained
in the ERS report which sum
marizes the opinion poll, the U.S.
beef cattle industry has neared
the end of a major development
phase.
During 1950-70, beef production
doubled. Cattlemen did this by
(1) switching from dairy cattle to
beef cattle as consumption of
dairy products dropped, and (2)
by feeding grain to a larger share
of the calf crop to bring animals
up to 1,000-pound slaughter
weights, rather than slaughtering
them as calves.
End of an era
Now nearly all calves are being
placed on feed, so increased
grain feeding offers limited
potential for adding to the beef
supply. And though the dairy-to
beef shifts may continue, this
also is approaching the com
pletion stage for the most part.
Thus, the major addition to the
beef supply during the seventies
has to come from expanding the
number of beef cows.
The experts expected increases
in cow numbers in all regions and
all States, except in the Northeast
for which no projections were
made because beef production is
of minor importance.
There will, however, be great
differences among States and
regions in both relative and
absolute growth in beef numbers.
Generally, the humid regions—
where crop-livestock farms
predominate—will show the
largest expansion relative to
other areas. Most of the ex
pansion in beef cow numbers in
regions where specialized ran
ching is common will also occur
under mixed crop-livestock
systems.
Here’s a brief rundown of the
regional prospects as viewed by
the experts:
Cows in the Corn Belt
This region will enlarge its beef
cow inventory 37 percent during
1970-80 to 6.7 million, with four
fifths of the increase in Missouri
and lowa. In Illinois and Indiana,
expansion will be small due to the
high proportion of good land and
intensive row crop farming.
Overall increases in the Corn Belt
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Good 1980 Beef Supply
will reflect further enlargement
of farms, favorable prices for
feeder calves and a shortage of
feeder cattle in the region, also
relatively low grain prices and
strong potential for forage
production. Beef cow enterprise
should not be encumbered by the
waste management problems
associated with large cattle
feeding and hog operations.
National pacesetter
The Lake States are expected
to have the sharpest increase
among major cattle regions—49
percent, bringing the herd to 1.3
million in 1980. Expansion will
occur mainly in Wisconsin and
Minnesota. Reasons for the in
crease are much the same as in
the Corn Belt, with the additional
incentives of a good potential for
grass legume forages and a
continuing shift out of dairy
production.
The Southeast’s inventory will
swell 29 percent of 11.8 million
head for a total gain of 2.6
million. This represents about 30
percent of the increase expected
nationally, though the
Southeast’s expansion won’t
match that of the 1950-70 period.
Kentucky’s share of the regional
total will rise 2 percent between
1970 and 1980, while Florida’s
drops 1 percent. Factors favoring
the buildup: reduced acreages of
cotton and tobacco, more
specialization in farming, farm
consolidation, increasingly
scarce and costly farm labor,
technological improvements in
forage production and use, and a
steady trend toward part-time
farming.
Plains Gains.
The Northern Plains is ex
pected to add roughly 2 million
beef cows, up 33 percent, for a
total of 8.5 million in 1980. The
four States in this region will
each gain by approximately the
same percentage. Most of the
expansion is marked for the
eastern half and third of the
Northern Plains. Cattle raising
will be encouraged by improved
output and utilization of forage
crops, and —though the panel had
dissenting opinions—a shift from
grain to forage production may
also play an important role.
The Southwest’s estimate puts
the inventory at 9.7 million head
in 1980—8 percent more than 10
years earlier. The experts
project a slower growth rate than
in the eastern U.S., partly
because of the largeinitialbase of
herd size and partly because of
limited potential for greater
production. Oklahoma will come
in for a higher percentage in
crease than either Arizona, New
Mexico, or Texas. But Texas will
top the others in terms of sheer
numerical increases. Expected
gains in this region can be
chalked up to better forage
production and expanded cattle
raising in general, especially
along the Gulf Coast and
southeastern Texas. In range
areas, there will be a shift from
sheep to goat enterprises, but in
other areas, overgrazing and
transfer of grazing lands to
alternative uses will reduce the
number of beef cows.
Mountain region v. U.S.
The Mountain States’
projection indicates nearly the
same rate of increase in cow
numbers as for the Nation as a
whole—2l percent during the
1970’5, putting the total at 5.7
million in 1980. Little change is
anticipated in Utah and Nevada
because of the arid climate and
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full utilization of existing forages.
In other States, the increases will
come partly from technological
advances in forage production on
rangelands. As elsewhere in the
U.S., most of the grains will be in
the crop farming sections.
The Pacific region,, will add
about 0.2 million beef cows by
1980 (10 percent), with modest
increases in all States. Com
peting uses of land will contain
expansion of cow herds in the
cropping areas, and the
rangelands have the same
limitations as other western
States.
Altogether, these regional
changes point to a national in
crease in beef cows of 24 percent
for the 48 States betwen 1970 and
1980. The growth rate foreseen by
the experts is substantial any
way you look at it. On this point,
the experts reached a meeting of
the minds.
(Continued On Page 19)
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