6—Lancaster Farming, Saturday, November 18, 1972
Dairy Outlook Good for ’73
Rising milk prises, a good
supply of replacement heifers,
and slow decline in dairy cow
numbers favor another gain in U
S milk production for 1973 and a
further boost for cash receipts
from dairying according to a
report from the USDA’s
Economic Research Service.
Higher ration prices and poor
roughage quality in some areas
may limit the rise in output next
year to about a billion pounds of
milk
Milk production increases
slowed a little in September, and
fourth quarter output is likely to
run 1 to 1 Va percent above a year
earlier This would boost 1972
output to about 120V2 billion
pounds from 118 6 billion last
year
Commercial disappearance of
milk in all dairy products
probably will increase about 3
percent this year, after holding
fairly stable since 1967 A smaller
gam about in line with the
population increase appears
more likely for 1973
Contributing to this year’s gam
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are higher meat prices, in
creasing incomes, relatively
small rises in retail dairy prices,
aggressive dairy promotion
programs, and the broadened
food stamp program.
Sales of cheese and fluid skim
and lowfat milk are gaining most.
Consumers are also buying more
butter, frozen desserts, and
cream items.
For the first time since the mid
-1950’5, per capita comsumption of
milk equivalent in all dairy
products is rising
Increased commercial demand
for milk and dairy products
pushed up 1972 farm milk prices,
despite larger milk marketings
by farmers and no change in
dairy supports since April 1971
Farmers will average about $6.05
per 100 pounds for milk this year,
up some 3 percent from 1971.
Farm milk prices should
continue above year-earlier
levels early next year, but after
the first quarter they will also
depend on the price support level
to be determined for the 1973-74
marketing year
One of the modern aspects of cattle
improvement is the Direct Herd
Program pioneered by ABS, where-
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Larger milk marketings and
somewhat higher prices in
prospect for 1973 point to a boost
in dairy cash receipts from $7.1
billion in 1972. Farmers will gross
alomost 5 percent more from
milk and cream marketings this
year, but rising production costs
are limiting gains in net income.
Wholesale dairy prices are now
up seasonally Normal seasonal
increases are strengthened this
year by the strong demand for
dairy products. Retail dairy
prices up less the 1 percent from
a year earlier in the third
quarter, may rise more strongly
the rest of this year and early
next year.
For all of 1972, retail dairy
prices should average about VA
percent higher than 1971, the
smallest rise in 7 years.
Through October this year,
CCC sold 8.5 million pounds of
butter and 13.3 million pounds of
nonfat dry milk back to the
domestic industry as the result of
increased demand and reduced
commercial supplies.
USDA removals of dairy
products from the commercial
market likely will be down to the
equivalent of some 5% billion
pounds of milk from 7.3 billion
pounds in 1971. Milk production is
expected to increase more than
sales, and removals in 1973 may
be somewhat larger than this
year
Government stocks of dairy
products are below a year
earlier Although its butter
holdings are ample, CCC has no
uncommitted stocks of American
cheese or nonfat dry milk.
Commercial stocks of
American cheese are up in
response to continued strong
demand. By year-end, total dairy
product stocks may be somewhat
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under 1971’s 5.1 billion pounds
milk equivalent.
Imports of dairy products will
likely exceed last year’s 1.3
billion pounds milk equivalent,
but dairy exports probably will
be down.
Increasing world milk
production is causing a buildup of
butter stocks.
Larger world dairy supplies
are limiting opportunities for
U.S. dairy exports and causing
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There are about 250 In
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