Farm Exports to
The Nation’s agricultural
exports in the current fiscal year
ending next June 30 are expected
to total about $lO billion, almost
$2 billion above the previous
record high of $B.l billion last
fiscal year.
Agriculture’s contribution to
the U.S. trade balance will also
be at an alltime high, $3.5 billion
compared with $2.0 billion last
year. This contribution helps
offset the unfavorable nonfarm
trade balance, which was $7.1
Hit 9 10 billion in Fiscal ’73
billion in 1971-72,
Two-thirds of this year’s in
crease in farm exports will be
due to increased volume
(primarily of grains, soybeans,
and cotton) and one-third to
higher prices. The increased
volumes of grain and soybeans,
in particular, will mean sub
stantially increased demands by
country elevators for rail cars, by
interior elevators for rail cars
and barges, dnd by port elevators
for ships. The successful
movement of 83 million metric
tons into export will require
coordinated movement and
avoidance of bottlenecks.
The sharp increase forecast in
exports primarily reflects record
shipments of grains and soybeans
in prospect. While exports of
these commodities to most
destinations will be up over last
year, the large purchases by the
Soviet Union is the single most
important element
The value of wheat exports is
forecast to increase about 90
percent to over $2 billion, feed
grains by 38 percent to $1.6
billion, and soybeans and
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Lancaster Farming, Saturday, November 11,1972
products by 13 percent to about
$2.3 billion In addition, higher
prices are expected to boost
livestock product exports by 32
percent to almost $1 billion
Slight increases are forecast for
fruits and vegetables
Declines in value are forecast
only for dairy and poultry
products, down 30 percent, and
cotton, down 6 percent However,
the volume of cotton exports will
be up 5 percent, to 3 5 million
bales
Farm exports this fiscal year
are expected to be $3 5 billion
larger than agricultural imports
This favorable agricultural trade
balance would exceed by $l2
billion the previous high recorded
in 1966-67. Noncommercial ex
ports this fiscal year are
estimated at $1 billion, leaving a
record commercial trade surplus
of $2 5 billion
The Soviet Union accounts for
about half of the total increase
forecast for U S agricultural
exports this fiscal year These
USSR purchases are now
estimated at $1 2 billion, com
pared with about $l5O million last
year Most of this increase will be
in wheat, which may total around
$660 million Feed grain exports
may total close to $4OO million,
and soybeans $135 million
Exports to Western Europe are
expected to total about $3 2
billion, slightly more than a year
earlier Soybeans and soybean
products will account for most of
that increase, but grains should
also gain along with fruits,
vegetables, and animal products
Japan, the top single-country
market lor LLS farm products,
will probably take a record $1 5
billion worth this year, with
major gains in wheat, feed
grains, fresh fruits cattle hides
cotton, and tobacco Exports to
other Asian countries, including
the Near East, are expected to
show a substantial gain and total
over $2 0 billion Most ol this
increase will be in feed grains
and wheat Recent sales ol lin
seed oil, wheat and corn may
bring exports to the People's
Republic of China to about $5O
million
U S agricultural exports to
Latin America should advance to
around $B5O million Irom ap
proximately $702 million last
fiscal year with much ol th
increase being in wheat and feed
grains Exports to Canada will
approach $7OO million compared
with $661 million last year with
increases concentrated in coin
fresh fruits and vegetables and
cotton Exports to Africa are
expected to total around $5O
million compared with $322
million a vear eailier
The rise in U S farm expoils
this fiscal >ear will be the fourth
consecutive annual increase -
from a lev el of $5 7 billion m 1%8
09 Commercial ‘-ales lor dollars
will have almost doubled Irom
$4 7 billion during that pern d
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