—Lancaster Forming. Saturday. March 7.1970
24
USDA Warns
Poultry, Egg Profits Lower in ’7O
The poultry industry faces yc:ir cailicr, pai ticularly in the
the prospect of higher produc- closing months of the year.”
tion costs and lower puces for Increased supplies and prices
their products in 1970, accord- lower than a year earlier were
lug u. th. US Dopuilment ol bro.ler .ndusl.y
Agricultuie.
That analysis ot the overall
situation was presented recent
ly during USDA’s National Agri
cultural Outlook Conference by
William E Cathcart.
Despite the overall prospect
outlined by the USDA econo
mist, poultry industrymen can
expect profits in 1970
The size of this year’s hatch
of replacement chicks holds the
key to egg puces in the last of
1970, but the outlook for the
first half of the year is en
couraging.
Cathcart said that prospects
for rising incomes and continu
ed strong consumer demand
likely will hold egg prices above
the first half of 1969 during the
first six months of this year.
But he warned
“General demand expansion
is expected to continue in the
last half of 1970, but supplies of
competing foods will likely in
crease.
If produceis add to the laying But m 1970 i broiler puces
flock, as seems likely based on may avei age below 1969 because
recent increases in hatchery 0 £ i ai g er output and perhaps a
activity, puces in the second s j ow expansion in demand,
half probably will average be
low the relatively high prices a “However, continued stiong
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Cathcart said that in response
to favorable broiler prices dur
ing the past year, producers will
likely continue to increase pro
duction in 1970, probably by 5
to 10 percent.
Based on broiler chick place
ments, supplies for January-
Maich will average around 13
per cent above those months of
1969, Cathcart said. He added
that output likely will average
above year-eai her levels
tin ough all of 1970, though the
margin may narrow during the
year.
“Puces are expected to fall
below 1969 by spring and likely
will average below a year earli
er in the second half of 1970,”
he said
Cathcait recalled that last
year the usually strong consum
er demand foi meat kept broiler
prices above year earlier levels
despite a 9 per cent increase in
broiler meat and continued
large supplies of led meats
WITH
you can get.
consumer demand for meals
and prospects for little change
in red meat supplies will tend
to maintain the demand for
poultry,” the economist pointed
out.
The broiler hatchery supply
flock continues to expand, Cath
cart noted, adding that the num
ber of pullets placed quarterly
for broiler hatchery supply
flocks continuing above year
earher levels since the second
quarter of 1968.
This buildup could support a
substantial increase in broiler
production this year, he warned
Turkey mdustrymen can ex
pect higher prices than a year
earlier during the first half of
1970. but the price during the
main marketing season depends
almost entiiely on the size of
the March-July poult hatch
Cathcart indicated that tur
key production this year pro
bably will increase moderately
from the 106 million raised in
1969 He cited glowers’ inten
tions to raise about 112 million
birds in 1970, some five per cent
mqie than last year.
He noted, however, that poult
production in December was up
29 per cent fiom a year earlier
and weekly hatchery reports
during January from 10 key
states showed a 32 per cent in
ci ease.
“Turkeys will face strong
competition fiom larger broiler
supplies this year and per capi
ta red meat supplies will likely
be increasing later this year
However, rising consumer in
comes will continue to lend sup
port to prices in 1970 ”
Cathcart noted that the past
year was good for the poultry
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industry, with egg production strong demand sharply reduced
down slightly and puces soar- stocks and prices averaged
ing to the highest levels since above 1968.
the early 19505.
Cash receipts irom market
„ . , .. mgs of poultry and eggs rose
Broiler meat production was I{ > per £ nl £ 1969 Another
up more than 9 per cent, but increase is likely in 1970, Cath
prices remained above year cart said, but by a smaller
earlier levels. And turkey pio- amount. An increased volume
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in 1969, but cold storage hold- set an expected reduction in
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