I&—Lancaster Farming. Saturday. June 28.1969
Poultry Survey Committee
Dui.ng the ne\t s.x months.
US faim tuikey puces aie ex
pected to exceed levels of a yeai
ago, wheieas U S farm egg puc
es will average substantially low
er. accord.ng to fo.ecasts made
by the Poultry Survey Commit
tee .n .:s 50th quarteily meeting
here today
The Committee, sponsored by
the American Feed Manufactur
ers Association and the National
Turkey Federation, predicted
broiler market.ngs would aver
age 7 to 8 r c above year-earlier
levels with third-quarter prices
about He above last year, but
with fourth-quarter prices about
a cent lower than during the
same period a year earlier.
Turkey prices are expected to
ncrease gradually from July to
December, averaging to 2c
h.gher than last yeai A crop of
106 million birds about the same
size as the 1968 crop, plus a
marked decrease in carryover
stocks on July 1 will contribute
to the improved outlook.
Egg production is expected to
exceed year-earlier levels for the
remainder of 1969. Further in
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creases in the laying flock will
tend to depress prices for the
next 12 months.
Members of the committee
are. Dr Ralph L Baker, Ohio
Stale University; Dr. Olan D.
Forker, Cornell Univeisity; Dr
William R Henry, North Caro
lina State University: Dr. Henry
Laizelere, Michigan State Uni
versity: Dr Jerome Siebert, Uni
versity of California Economists
fiom industry and USDA serve
ex-officio.
The complete report the
Poultry Survey Committee is as
follows:
The 1969 turkey crop will be
around 106 million birds, about
the same number as in 1968. U S.
farm turkey pi ices during the
July-December period will likely
average 22 to 23 cents, compared
to 20.7 cents for the same period
a year earlier. Prices are expect
ed to increase gradually from
July to December.
Carryover stocks on July 1,
1969 will be about 110 million
pounds, compared to 185 million
pounds on July 1,1968. Slaughter
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dining the last half of 1969 is ex
pected’ to be 1 to 2Tc .greater
than during the same period of
1968.
The total available supply of
turkey meat during the penod of
heavy consumption is likely to
be 3% less than during the com
parable period of the previous
year. Disappearance is expected
to be 2to 3 7c greater in the last
half of 1969 than during the last
six months of 1968. Cold storage
holdings on December 31, 1969
are expected to be near 250 mil
lion pounds, well under the 317
million pounds of twelve months
earlier.
Larger supplies of red meat
and broilers will provide strong
competition for turkey during
the main marketing period How
ever, continued gains in con
sumer incomes should support
an increase in turkey prices.
Turkey production costs dur
ing the July-December period
will be above last year’s level.
Feed prices will be up an equiv
alent of one-fourth to one-half
cent per pound of turkey pro
duced. Higher wages and interest
rates add to costs.
Eggs
U S. farm egg prices for the
12 months starting July 1, 1969
are expected to aveiage about
four cents below the puces for
the preceding 12 months Higher
interest rates and feed prices
will likely increase egg produc
tion costs by one-half cent a
dozen.
During the July-September
quarter of 1969, U S. farm egg
prices are expected to average
about 34 cents, Vh cents a dozen
below the same months of the
previous year. Octoher-Decemher
prices will probably average 34
to 35 cents, about five cents be
low the same quarter in 1968 In
the first quarter of 1970, prices
will likely average 35 cents a doz
en, about 51/2 cents lower than
in the January-March period of
1969 During the second quarter
of 1970, prices will probably be
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Report
30 cents, two to thiee cents be
low the same months in 1969.
The egg-type chick hatch dur
ing the last half of 1969 will
likely be 5 to 7% above the same
period of 1968 During the first
half of 1970, the hatch is expect
ed to be the same to lower than
in January-June 1969 with any
decrease relative to a year ear
lier occurring in the second
quarter.
Egg production equalled year
earlier levels in May of 1969, the
first time in about a year. Pro
duction will exceed a year earlier
during the remainder of 1969 If
the predicted hatch occurs, pro
duction in each month of 1970
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v/i]] be above the corresponding
month of 1969.
Individual producers may re
ceive prices lower than the U.S.
aveiage farm prices upon which
this report is based. The U.S.
pi ice includes prices received by
pioduceis who sell to hatcheries
and those who market direct to
consumers or to retail stores.
Boilers
Nine-city broiler prices are ex
pected to average about 29 cents
in third quarter 1969, about one
half cent above July-September,
1968 Fourth quarter prices will
probably average 24 to 25 cents,
about one cent below the same
period a year , earlier. (Broiler
marketing will likely average 7
to 8% above year earlier during
the last half of 1969.
Decreased turkey supplies in
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