12—Lancaster Farming, Saturday, December 5, 1964
The Agricultural Outlook...
SUMMARY
At the Annual USDA Agri
cultural Outlook Conference
in Washington recently cer
tain appraisals were especial
ly worthy of note for Lancas
ter County.
Janies P Cavin, Economic
Research Seivice. leportecl
that over the past decade the
realized gioss income of farm
opciatois has tiended upward
Since production costs have
generally increased, the re
sult has been a somewhat sta
ble net income pictui'e.
The huger faims will con
tinue to gain m importance,
accoiding to the trend In
1963 faims with sales of $lO,-
000 or moie accounted for 27
per cent of all farms, 78 per
cent of total cash receipts, and
61 per cent of total realized
net income Cavin contrasted
this with the situation in 1959
when they accounted for 61
per cent of total cash receipts
and 50 per cent of net income,
Cavin said that on a per
capita basis consumer dispos
able income for 1964 will in
crease about six per cent ovei
1963, and that he would there
foie expect consumer demand
for agricultural products to
remain high through 1965,
probably increasing m' line
with the 1 4 per cent estimat
ed rise in population.
Retail food prices, he said,
aie expected to show only a
small increase in 1965 The
continued high demand for
animal products is expected to
maintain average prices for
meat near current levels,
though some increases are ex
pected for lamb and pork.
Regarding the farm finan
cial situation, Cavin said that
the value of farm assets con
tinues to rise in contrast with
the stability of total realized
net income of farm operators
This upward trend is expected
to continue as rising land val
ues will enlaige the value of
faim assets by amounts con
siderably greater than the in
crease in faim debts.
FEED OUTLOOK
Feed gram supplies for the
1964-65 maxketmg year were
estimated to he down six per
cent fiom last year. This will
he the third year in the last
four that supplies have drop
ped, accoiding to Malcolm
Clough, Economic and Statisti
cal Analysis Division Domes
tic use has diopped a little in
the past two years and a fur
ther slight decline seems
piobable in 1964-65 But the
smaller 1964 ciop is expected
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to be 10-12 million tons below
total disappearance. This will
result in a reduced carryover
in 1965-66. Feed grains are
expected to average a little
higher in 1964 65 because of
smaller supplies and higher
loan rates High-protein feed
supplies are expected to be a
little larger and may sell at
prices a little below those of
the past two years, Clough
said. Hay supplies will be
short in the East, South and
Midwest because of drought
conditions.
Corn supply was estimated
at about seven per cent below
last year Oat and barley sup
plies are down about four per
cent from last year, continu
ing the down trend since
1958. The oat supply is the
smallest since 1936, Clough
said.
Exports of feed grains for
1964-65 marketing year are ex
pected to equal or exceed the
record high of last year. In
creasing corn exports in re
cent years have more than off
set a decline in the combined
exports of other grains.
POULTRY AND EGG
OUTLOOK
Herman Bluestone, Econom
ic and Statistical Analysis Di
vision, told the Conference
that production of broilers,
eggs, and turkeys will prob
ably increase again in 1965.
For eggs and turkeys, he said,
increases are expected to be
large enough to cause a fur
ther decline in prices in 1965
Expansion in broilers, how
evei, may be small and farm
prices may average higher.
The number of layers and
replacements now on hand
practically assures that egg
production will continue larg
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er than a year earlier through
mid-1965. ‘ In the second half
the volume of eggs will de
pend upon the number of re
placements staited in the first
half. Egg prices in the next
few months are not expected
to be low enough to dis< oar
age expansion, in large tom
mercial operations, and the de
cline in small farm flocks is
(Continued on Page 13)
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