6—Lancaster Farming, Friday, March 14, 1958
Slightly Greater Egg Output Indicated
By EDWARD ARPOFF
Ag Eton Div., AMS
Egg production only slightly
laiger next winter than this win
ter is indicated by farmers’ ex
pressed intentions in February to
raise six per cent more replace
n cnt chickens this spring.
Turkey output about the same
size as in the last half of 1957 had
been indicated by growers m
January
The chickens raised intentions
would lift the number to about
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420 million from the 394 million
of 1957.
Intentions are not positive indi
cations of actual production but m
Hie past they have been sufficient
-1: good indications of trend to
deserve respect In fact, one rea
son why the USD A compiles in
tentions reports is to give farm
ers a chance to reconsider their
production plans if this seems ad
visable to them after they dis
cover what other farmers plan.
This article, therefore, wiE con
sider probable developments if
these intentions are earned out
and will compare the season’s
developments to date with the
expressed intentions.
First, how do the intended in
creases in chickens raised divide
regionally’
The increases range from three
per cent more in the ITbrth Atlan
tic states to 14 per cent more m
the South Central group. Other
intended increases are Western
slates, four per cent; North Cen
tral, five per cent, and South At
lantic states, six per cent.
These changes would be from a
1957 level which, for the nation,
w as the lowest in the 34 years dur
ing which such estimates have
been made. But for several reas
ons, the 394 million chickens
raised in 1957—18 per cent fewer
than in 195—didn’t result in a
proportionately reduced egg pro
duction.
CHAIN SAW
SERVICE CENTER
New & Used
Snavely’s Farm Service
New Holland EL 4-2214
First, of these chickens raised,
more were sexed pullets than in
any previous year and farmers in
tend 61 per cent of their 1958
cluck purchases (excluding broil
cis) to be sexed pullets, com
pared with 60 per cent last year
and 30 per cent 10 years ago.
Second, the year-to-year chang
es in the number of pullets avail
aole as layers can be partially off
set by changes in the number of
hens kept over for a second laying
year. Usually about half of the
pullet layers are retained as hens
for this purpose. But the propor
tion can be altered enough to
noticably smooth out the varia
tions that you would expect as a
consequence of changes m the
numbers of chickens raised.
Right now, the laying flock con
tains an unusually large propor
tion of hens. Because they will be
moved out of the flock this sum
mer and fall, the total laying
flock at the end of 1958 won’t be
increased above the year earlier
by the same extent that chickens
laised are increased in 1958.
Finally, the. rate of egg pro
duction per bird seems to go up
each year In recent years, it has
increased at about the same per
centage as the increase in popula
tion. Consequently, so long as this
trend continues, an egg-laying
flock of static size would suffice
to provide a steady annual per
capita egg supply.'
The net result of all these in
fluences, if the farmers stick to
their intentions to raise six per
cent more chickens, would likely
be to provide a Jan. 1,1959, laying
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flock about the same size as the) Recent hatchery operations and
"S million layeis on hand this other indications have not been
1r - ' consistent with a one per cent in
i' larger proportion of next crease fiom 1957’s record 80 6
season’s flock will be pullets and million turkeys Turkey breeder
a smaller proportion will be hens, hens on hand Jan. 1, 1958, were
compared with this winter. They seven per cent fewer than a year
will likely lay at a higher average earlier. Pullorum testings since
rate per bird than this year’s July 1, 1957, have been 10 per
flock, particularly in the fall of cent fewer.
1958. Hatchings from Sept. 1, 1957,
through January have been 26 per
cent fewer. Eggs in incubators
Feb 1 were 10 per cent fewer.
As a result, egg supply per per
son in the fall may be slightly
larger than in 1957. All this is
based on the assumption that far
mers will stick close to their in
tended six per cent increase.
So far, however, the monthly
hatchings of replacement chicks
arc running more than six per
cent ahead of last year. January
hatchings of egg-type birds were
11 per cent greater than last Jan
uary and eggs in incubators this
Feb. 1 were 10 per cent greater
than last year January and Feb
luary provided about 16 per cent
of the total 1957 hatch of re
placement chicks, so the season,
is far from “made” by hatchings
in the first two months.
Certainly it is clear, however,
that the important hatching
months of March and April can
not show equal percentage in
creases with January and Febru
ary if the earlier relatively fav
orable egg price outlook for fall
is to be maintained.
The intention to raise one per
cent more turkeys, with the in
crease solely among the Bronze
birds, seems to run counter to
hatchery and related activity in
recent months.
WALTER & JACKSON, INC.
Christiana, Pa.
All these, however, are only
eaily season indications, which,
can be changed Last season the
poults hatched before the end of
February were only 19 per cent
of the season’s hatch
Furthmore, early-season oper
ations in 1957 were on a grand
scale, which tapered down sharp
ly before the hatching season
ended.
Maybe 1958 is proceeding on a
more nearly “normal” seasonal
pattern In comparison with the
jcar before, it may show the re
duction in early-season poults to
be compenated by an increase in
later hatchings. Late 1958 prices
are unlikely to exceed 1957 prices
if this is the case.
* s
JOHN H. BONHOLTZER
R. D. 4, Lancaster, Pa.
SNADER’S MILL
R. D. 1, Stevens, Pa.
I. B. GRAYBILL & SON
Refton, Pa.
(art.
y./