PAGE FIVE
Current Inflation Analyzed
University Park, Pa., ---
Slowdown and inflation are
having an effect on the Penn
sylvania economy, business
analysts at The Pennsylvania
State University report.
Pinched incomes are calling
out more workers, resulting in
•a larger labor force than usual
for late summer and many of
them in Pennsylvania, as
across the Nation, are women
who are seeking paychecks'
because of the pressures of
inflation.
The job level is easing back
in nonmanufacturing in
dustries of the State, especially
in construction and wholesale
trade. Some areas report
sluggishness in retail trade.
Aside from work stoppages in
utilities, which reduce the job
count in nonmanufacturing
industries, this too reflects a
general slowdown in business
activity.
In this sector, the analysts
note, the job level is lower than
it was last year at this time--a
decidedly atypical develop
ment.
Manufacturers are laying off
a few more workers than they
usually do in slack season.
However, the job level in this
sector can't be said to be
declining. Rather, it is fluc
tuating rather narrowly
around a fairly stable level.
With an exceptionally larger
labor force and local industries
that are not expanding em
ployment, it is to be expected
that unemployment will make
an unfavorable record. The
number of jobless did decline
over the past month, but it
should have declined much
more to match customary late
summer behavior. To the
extent that it did not, the
analysts say, it means that the
situation is worse. At the most
recent count, there were
337,000 unemployed, and the
seasonally adjusted unem
ployment index had reached its
highest point in at least five
years. The jobless represented
a seasonally adjusted 5.8 per
cent of the labor force.
The Penn State analysts,
however, do not see the signs of
general softening as severe. If
the unemployment rate is
higher than is desirable, it has
held steady for two months.
Wage and salary employment
in nonmanufacturing in
dustries was indexed only
slightly higher last year than it
D.T.K. Sponsors First Luncheon
Delta Thu Kappa, International Social Science Honor
Society, is sponsoring an informal brown-bag luncheon
discussion headed by Dr. Robert Bresler, Monday, October
7 at 12:00 in the Gallery Lounge. Dr. Bresler will speak and
lead a discussion centering on the Ford Presidency. This
session will be the first of a series of hmcheon-discussions to
be held every other Monday at noon in the Gallery Lounge.
All faculty members and stu d ents are invited to bring their
lunch and participate in the discussion.
is now --- 115.2 last year and
115.0 now. A similar index for
manufacturing workers is
actually a little higher; 94.2
then and 94.5 now.
Industrial power sales are
indexed only 2 percentage
points below last year's index
and that could be attributed to
a number of factors besides
slowing business conditions---a
changing seasonal pattern, a
cooler summer this year, or
energy-saving measures, to
name a few.
Although steel output in July
was smaller, at 2.8 million
tons, than it has been in
Pennsylvania in any month
this year since February, it
was still very good. July
production amounted to an
annual rate of 33 million tons,
also as good as the comparable
period of 1973 and well above
earlier years. For seven
months this year, the annual
rate is 34.1 million tons, while
last year it was 33.8 million.
Other types of manufac
turing are holding a better
record than could be expected
and the all-industry average
workweek was as long in July
as in June, whereas it is
usually shorter. Dollar value of
awards for future construction
is up sharply in all major
construction categories. The
index of aggregate factory
payrolls, a measure of per
sonal income, is rising,
suggesting wages are begin
ning to chase after other prices
now that deterrents have been
removed.
All in all, say the analysts.
Pennsylvania is not doing
badly considering national
economic problems. Never
theless, a look at past records
shows that Pennsylvania's
present activity levels com
pare favorably with all but the
most recent past. National
conditions can be expected to
further sag but a good bit of
ground can still be lost before
the levels of the State compare
unfavorably with the ex
pansion period of the 1960'5.
Unemployment remains the
major problem but the Penn
State analysts believe that if
the public can be convinced
that inflation can be curbed,
that a hard depression is not
inevitable, there may be
enough withdrawals from the
labor force to keep unem
ployment from becoming a
critical problem although it
undoubtedly will continue to be
a problem for some time.
C. C. READER
.~.
Consumers
Need to Know
by LEE LANDIS
One thing consumers are
learning fast these days is
that our economy is a pretty
complicated thing. You don't
just slap on price controls
and solve your problems im
mediately.
In fact, the National Asso
ciation of Credit Manage
ment writes in a newsletter,
"The past two years of
freezes and phases may have
been worth the discomfort if
they dispelled the belief that
wage-price controls can do
some good without any harm."
Controls are harmful even
when used at the best time
economically, because they
appear to be helpful. The illu
sion of success means that
collector is forbidden by law to call you repeatedly or at odd
hours, or to harass your friends, neighbors, relatives, or
employer. And he's forbidden to make threats. Like telling
you your credit rating will be hurt when it won't, or legal
process is about to be served when.it isn't.
Telephone harassment to collect a debt is illegal. When it
first happens to you keep a record of each call and where they
came from. If they're from inside your state notify the phone
company in writing. At the same time, write your state's
Public Utilities Commission. In most states you have the legal
right to ask the phone company to cut off the offending party's
phone service. If the calls are from out of state write the
Federal Communications Commission in Washington. D.C.
Remember. your telephone can't he used against you.
controls may be used again
under less favorable condi
tions, NACM believes.
For example, Phase I suc
ceeded because it broke an
inflationary psychology we
had had for so long, and per
mitted basic supply-demand
pressures to reassert them
selves. Since the freeze was
only for three months, there
were few attempts at eva
sion, and shortages did not
have time to develop.
But Phase 111 failed be
cause it came when demand
was outrunning supply and
there were shortages in agri
cultural products. When it
became unprofitable to bring
new supplies to market, dis
tortions multiplied. The law
of supply and demand be
came a first come, first served
economy. Also contributing
SEPTEMBER 30, 1074
to the failure of Phase 111
was the devaluation of the
dollar, and world-wide short
ages of wheat and other food
stuffs.
George Hagedorn, Na
tional Association of Manu
facturers chief economist,
points out that no one, in or
out of government, can fore
see future developments
clearly at all times. "In eco
nomics, the state of the art
does not permit forecasting
with any precision," he says.
The remedy for better meth
ods of predicting the future
should be based on an accept
ance of our inability to pre
dict.