Close race
spurs talk
of possible
split vote
by Scott Martelle
Los Angeles Times
Remember those grade-school democracy
lessons about whoever gets the most votes
As lyricist Ira Gershwin once wrote, “It
ain't necessarily so."
Here in the waning days of the 2000 presi
dential campaign, political analysts are
weighing scenarios under which Texas Gov.
George W. Bush could rack up more votes
nationwide than Vice President A 1 Gore but
still lose the election. It hasn't happened in
more than a century. Still, it is possible.
"This has been a constitutional crisis wait
ing to happen,” said Jeff Man/.a, a sociol
ogy professor and political analyst at
Chicago's Northwestern University.
Under the Electoral College system, es
tablished in the Constitution, none of us ac
tually votes for a candidate for president. In
stead, we're voting for slates of electors com
mitted to supporting their political party's
nominee
The electors for the winning candidate as
semble in the state capitols on Dec. 18, where
ballots are cast for president and vice presi
dent and forwarded to the president of the
Senate, in this case. A 1 Gore, where they are
counted on Jan. 6.
Only about half the states legally require
the to support the top vote-getter. In
California, a wayward elector can be fined
$l,OOO and sent to prison for up to 3 years.
In Michigan, a battleground state that
some analysts think could swing the elec
tion, a vote for Gore is actually a vote for
David P. Taylor and 17 fellow Democratic
loyalists.
Taylor, a lawyer, said he would have no
misgivings about playing a role in a Gore
electoral victory in defiance of the popular
vote. But he said he could sec where many
voters would not be pleased.
"It might be difficult for the average per
son to accept that, but I don’t think it's of
revolutionary importance," said Taylor.
“People should be aware of how it (Elec
toral College) works and then if they say this
isn’t the way we should elect the president,
changes might be made.”
Such a split result has happened only
twice.
In 1888, Grover Cleveland won 48.6 per
cent of the popular vote but lost in the Elec
toral College to Benjamin Harrison, who re
ceived just 47.8 percent. In 1876, Ruther
ford B. Hayes lost the popular vote to Samuel
Tilden Smith, who received 51 percent of
the vote. But Hayes prevailed by a single
electoral vote, the closest margin ever.
The system was designed by the framers
of the Constitution who sought a compro
mise between those who advocated direct
election of the president by the masses and
those who wanted Congress to pick the presi
dent.
Under the system, each state is allotted
electoral votes equal to the number of con
gressional districts in the state, plus one more
for each of the two U S. senators. The Dis
trict of Columbia has three electors.
In all states but Maine and Nebraska, who
ever wins the popular vote gets all the elec
toral votes. Maine and Nebraska give two
at-large electoral votes to the state winner
but award the others based on whoever wins
in each congressional district.
It takes 270 electoral votes (out of 538) to
win. Gore has done well in a few big states,
such as California and New York, while Bush
has led polls in many states with smaller
populations. Big margins of victory for Bush
in those states, combined with thin victories
for Gore in big states could give Bush the
most votes, even if Gore gets the most elec
tors.
Not all analysts see the numbers going that
way, though.
“It’s conceivable, but I’m not going to bet
my kids’ Christmas presents on it,” said Bob
Beckel, a former campaign manager for
Democrat Walter Mondale. “I really don’t
see it in the calculations.”
Also improbable, experts say, is a tie.
When no one candidate receives a majority
of electoral votes, the House of Representa
tives elects the winner from among the three
top electoral finalists. Each state gets one
vote.
Bush's
among
CINCINNATI —For a political “barnstorm,” it was awfully quiet.
Gov. George Ryan of Illinois and the governors of three other states sat Monday in a mostly
vacant room in the basement of a school that’s under renovation here.
Taped on the wall behind them were two red-white-and-blue signs promoting the “Barn
storm for Reform” tour that Texas Gov. George W. Bush launched this week, sending 28
fellow Republican governors in teams to different parts of the country to whip up excitement
for his presidential bid.
But for this team of governors dispatched to an Ohio basement, the local television news
cameras had to leave before any of the four out-of-town governors had a chance to speak. And
the local radio reporter had a deadline pretty soon, the governors were advised, so they might
want to talk fast.
Aside from two other reporters, a few local Republican notables, the school’s officials and
the governors’ entourages, the governors of Illinois, Virginia, Tennessee, and Wyoming made
speeches in support of Bush’s plans for education to a room of empty chairs.
"We re out to talk about the programs that are important to us, the states, local control,”
Ryan said, after touring this city’s Marva Collins Preparatory School. “Send the money back
home. Let us decide how it should be spent at home, not some bureaucrat or some operation in
Washington, D.C."
Before their speeches, the four toured the school, which is named for famed Chicago educa
tor Marva Collins and based on her philosophies. They watched students in uniforms do math
problems. Several students stood before the governors and recited poems about character,
achievement and responsibility.
Bush “wants to promote what your kids talked about here today character development,”
Ryan said in his speech.
Asked why so few ordinary voters had been invited to hear them, the governors indicated
that the “Barnstorm” tour strategy was aimed mainly at attracting reporters. “We’re hoping
the media will spread our story,” Tennessee Gov. Don Sundquist said.
In the only real hint of fanfare here, about a dozen people did turn up on the street outside
the school's gate just before the governors arrived. But they were supporters of Vice President
A 1 Gore and made their own speeches for the television cameras. One of the Gore supporters
tried to come inside but was told the governors’ event was private.
Bush, who joined a different team of the “barnstorming” Republican governors in Kansas
City, Mo., attracted much more notice on Monday.
Bush offered a vigorous defense of his plans for education, Social Security and tax cuts and
aggressively attacked Gore as a candidate for “obstacle-in-chief’ who represents the status
quo.
Bush contended the Democratic administration under President Clinton and Gore “has
blocked reform at every turn.”
“It came in with ringing promises and is now leaving with a sigh,” Bush said of the admin
istration, mocking Gore's propensity to utter audible sighs during the first presidential debate.
“This is the Gore approach: no innovation, no imagination, no flexibility, no accountability.”
Bush, who has criticized Gore for using scare tactics in trying to motivate seniors to the
polls on the issue of Social Security’s fate, engaged in some of his own fear-mongering. Bush
said the vice president would leave a $4O trillion debt in the Social Security trust fund that
would require a massive payroll tax increase or major benefit cut in 15 years.
Bush’s attacks on Gore were among his most direct yet at the vice president as the presiden
tial campaign entered its critical final two weeks with national surveys showing a tight race.
“This is a close election but I can feel the spirit of the people. The people are behind me,”
Bush told a rally at an ink manufacturer in Des Moines, lowa. For Bush, who closed out the
day in Milwaukee, the campaign’s efforts were focused on reaching out to independents in
Missouri, lowa and Wisconsin.
On Tuesday, Bush visits Thomas Middle School in Arlington Heights as the Republican
presidential campaign reconsiders its strategy for Illinois, a state once all but conceded to
Gore but where Republicans feel they are making gains.
But Ryan won’t be there. He’ll be in Ohio and then West Virginia, campaigning some more
Election 2000
attacks on Gore
his most direct yet
by Monica Davey
and Rick Pearson
October 24, 2000
Chicago Tribune
1 AJ*
Gore uses Texas education
study to bolster his school plan
NASHVILLE, Tenn. Vice President A 1 Gore on Wednesday seized upon a think tank
study raising doubts about improvements in Texas public education, using it to contend
that Texas Gov. George W. Bush is given to "nice-sounding rhetoric and a few half
measures” on education.
Gore highlighted an area of clear difference between the presidential candidates
during a speech on his own education proposals at Tennessee State University, obviously
re-crafted to address Tuesday’s release of a Rand Corp. study questioning Bush-heralded
academic gains in Texas.
Though Gore appeared to take some rhetorical liberties in citing the Rand study, the
report does suggest a clear gap between Texas students’ performance on the Texas
Assessment of Academic Skills and on the National Assessment of Educational
Progress.
In particular, Rand maintained that the gap between performance of white and minor
ity students in reading and math has grown slightly, compared to the Texas test results
indicating the gap has narrowed among 4th- and Bth-graders.
Rand suggested that one explanation for the dichotomy might be that Texas teachers
were “teaching to the test,” namely prepping some students for the statewide exam.
Bush aides have said the new Rand study contradicts every non-partisan scientific
evaluation of the gains made by Texas students, including a Rand study issued in July.
Gore's education address had been planned, but he added swipes at Bush, using the
Rand study. At the same time the Democratic National Committee produced and aired a
television advertisement with a similar thrust based on the Rand study.
It was a reflection of a tight race in which both sides desperately seek any advantage,
on virtually any issue or development that might influence voters.
“My opponent says we can trust him to raise standards and results because he’s done it
in Texas,” Gore told a small gathering of students. He often cites the Rand Corp. to
prove his point. But this week, Rand issued a new study, a comprehensive one.
“The study reported that contrary to all we’ve been told, the achievement gap for
Texas students has not narrowed, it has widened. The study called the claim that the
achievement gap was closing in Texas, and I quote, “false.”’
A spokesman for Rand noted that the study did not use the word “false” but did use
“inflated” and “misleading.” A Rand press release did say that certain features of the
Texas test “may contribute to the false sense that the racial gaps are closing.”
The Rand spokesman quibbled, too, with the characterization of the study as “compre
hensive” and also said that Gore's reference to the student dropout rate increasing in
Texas came not from the Rand study but a separate, non-Rand study referred to in the
Rand report.
Nevertheless, the substantial differences in education policy between Gore and Bush
were underscored. In sum, Gore would spend more on public education, opposes
vouchers, would be more inclined to testing teachers and would offer more in tax breaks
for college tuition.
The federal role in education, as has often been noted, is modest and education
remains one of the most localized elements of American government. Yet the candidates
know that interest in the topic is also one of the few that routinely cuts across all age,
racial and economic lines.
Gore’s morning began early, at a Nashville fire station where he held the third in what
are now daily “kitchen table” chats with supposedly “real people.”
He chatted about the economy and education with the firefighters and, asked what he
had ever done for such workers, responded that he labored in Congress to pass a “two in,
two out rule” to require departments to have two firefighters outside a fire when two
firefighters go inside.
After the education speech, Gore attended a rally at the Jackson County (Tenn.)
Fairgrounds. The appearance was another measure of a need to firm up support in his
home state, which threatens to go for Bush and where Gore found time to raise about $4
million Tuesday at various functions.
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 27, 2000
by James Warren
October 26, 2000
TMS Campus