THE BEHREND BEACON
Expert predicts U.S. will be
battered by storms for decades
by Sue Anne Pressley
The Washington Post
MIAMI - It is almost time for John
Rumble to put away the plywood
sheets that covered the windows of
his home, to start drinking the extra
water he had stocked in his pantry, to
stop watching the Weather Channel
quite so a \ idi \ On Tuesday, Novem
ber 30. the long,nerve-racking, quirk
filled hurricane season of 1999 will
finally draw to a close.
That would he not a minute too
soon for Rumble, who. like many
Miamians living in this prime hum
cane zone, gets frayed nerves as the
season progresses.
However, it might be that the
worst is yet to come, stretching sev
eral decades into the future. William
Gray, one of the country's prominent
hurricane forecasters, announced last
week from his admittedly offshore lo
cation at Colorado State University
that a new era of intense hurricane
activity is about to unfold. Likely to
be hit more than ever, he said, will
be the Caribbean islands, the East
Coast of the United States and the
Florida peninsula.
The last intense era of hurricane
activity ended in the 1960'5, Gray
said, when Florida and the East Coast
were not nearly so extensively devel
oped. During the relatively quiet pe
riod that stretched from 1970 to 1994,
more people were lured to the shore
line, and, therefore, many more
homes and businesses in prime wa
U.N. official urges Mexica
troop withdrawal in Chiapas
by Chris Kraul
Los Angeles Times
MEXICO CITY -- Applying
moral suasion in an effort to ease
what she described as abuses of in
digenous peoples in Chiapas, U.N.
High Commissioner for Human
Rights Mary Robinson on Satur
day urged Mexico to significantly
reduce its troop presence in the
troubled state.
Robinson said the "heavy"
presence of Mexican troops in
Chiapas is causing rights abuses at
a "grass-roots level." Among the
abuses she noted were disappear
ances, detentions, torture and vio
lence against women. Some of the
acts appear to have "official indul
gence." she said.
"Victims feel [like] hostages to
the situation when they suffer a
violation because they do not feel
they can get justice," said
Robinson, who was on the last leg
of a Mexican tour than included a
two-day trip to Chiapas and a stop
in Tijuana.
Although Robinson declined
to say how many of the estimated
25,000 Mexican troops in Chiapas
should be removed, she said their
presence is "very oppressive in
certain areas, especially indig
enous communities." Robinson
Supreme Court takes
can regulate nicotine
by Gail Gibson
Knight-Ridder Newspapers
November 28, 1999
WASHINGTON David Kessler
never expected an easy fight when, as
head of the Food and Drug Administra
tion in 1996, he proposed that his agency
regulate tobacco products as a drug.
Cigarette-makers launched a full-scale
legal battle. An army of tobacco farm
ers put on pins and caps proclaiming,
"Keep FDA off the farm."
"Wherever you went, you got the
same answer: You can't do that. They're
WORLD AND NATION
tertront locations are in jeopardy to
day.
"If this new period of increased
landfalling storms is now with us, it
could pose serious threats to safety
and to property for the country," Gray
said.
The reasons for the renewed ac
tivity involve several "climate sig
nals" that have been reliable indica
tors in the past, he said, including
above average sea temperatures in the
North Atlantic and above average
"If this new period of increased landfalling
storms is now with us, it could pose seri
ous threats to safety and to property for
the country."
rainfall in Africa. For the past two
busy seasons, the presence of La Nina,
the mass of cold water in the eastern
equatorial Pacific, has kept at bay the
wind shear that helps to weaken strong
hurricanes.
As evidence that this new era
could already be underway, Gray
pointed out that during the Live-year
period from 1990 to 1994, there were
only five major storms in the Atlantic
and Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico
said she was "overwhelmed" by the
documentation of the abuses, and had
to buy two new suitcases to pack it
all.
Emilio Rabasa, President Ernesto
Zedillo's handpicked coordinator for
the Chiapas problem, said Saturday
that the Mexican government would
not rule out a possible troop with
drawal, but that it would have to
come as a result of a dialogue with
groups there, including Zapatista
rebels.
Speaking to reporters Saturday,
Rahasa said a great portion of the
Chiapas population is anti-Zapatista
and wants the army's protection.
"The army offers security to the
population without discrimination,"
he said.
Invited by the Mexican govern
ment, Robinson met Wednesday,
Nov. 24, with Zedillo. Although
Mexico has always been sensitive to
outside interference on Chiapas,
Zedillo signed a "technical agree
ment- by which Mexico will accept
U.N. advice on ways to curb human
rights violations. The form the advice
will take is still unclear.
Without referring specifically to
Chiapas, Zedillo told a national con
vention of judges meeting here Fri
day that "without ambiguity,"
Mexico recognizes that "material de
ficiencies" exist in human rights and
too big. That's a fool's errand," Kessler
recalled.
But as the legal fight that Kessler's
proposal touched off goes to the U.S.
Supreme Court this week, health advo
cates and tobacco executives find them
selves on far different terrain from when
the case began nearly four years ago.
Much has happened in tobacco poli
tics from the industry's 1998 settle
ment of state lawsuits that included a ban
on all cigarette billboards to the
acknowledgement this summer by Philip
Morris on the company's Web site that
smoking is addictive and causes lung
DECEMBER 3, 1999
with wind speeds that exceeded 110
mph, or ranked as Categories 3, 4 or
5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Dur
ing the past five seasons, there have
been 20 such storms, a fourfold in-
crease
Gray's is the kind of forecast that
sends Rumble, special projects coor
dinator for the Village of Miami
Shores, into early denial. "Those
long-term predictions, I always take
them with a grain of salt," he said,
mindful of the glancing blow by Hur-
-William Gray,
one of the country's prominent hur
ricane forecasters
ricane Irene in October that still left
his crews with 350 additional loads
of debris to clean up.
But no one can fault Gray's de
gree of accuracy, at least not in this
season winding up. Earlier this year,
he predicted there would be 14 named
storms in 1999, nine of them hurri
canes. Four of those hurricanes would
be intense, he predicted.
The final count: 12 named storms,
with eight qualifying as hurricanes.
that the "impunity" of those who
violate them is unacceptable.
Zedillo said human rights viola
tions were the result of "the discre-
"Victims feel [like]
hostages to the
situation when they
suffer a violation
because they do not
feel they can get
justice."
-Mary Robinson,
U.N. High Commis
sioner for Human Rights
tional use of the organs of prosecu
tion, of the stubbornness of wrong
attitudes that undermine the rights
and dignity of the people."
Acknowledging progress by the
Mexican government in addressing
human rights issues, Robinson nev
ertheless said there is a large gap be
tween goals and accomplishments.
The former president of Ireland
said she felt compelled to "speak out
about the level of violations, of cases
cancer and other diseases
"We are in a very different place," said
Kessler, now dean of the Yale Univer
sity Medical School. "Who would have
ever thought that Philip Morris would
stand up and say, 'Nicotine is an addic
tive substance'?"
Still, the tobacco industry is unyield
ing on the central question before the
nation's high court this week: whether
the FDA has the power under the 1938
Food, Drug and Cosmetic Act to regu
late nicotine as a drug and cigarettes as
a drug-delivery device.
Tobacco lawyers say in legal briefs the
Five of those hurricanes were ma
jor.
At the National Hurricane Cen
ter here, allies applaud Gray's ac
curacy this season, and feel relief
that a trying period is almost over.
"We put in a lot of overtime,"
said hurricane specialist Jack
Beven. "The season did have some
meteorological quirks."
It began with tropical storm
Arlene in June, which formed in an
unusual position for so early in the
season southeast of Bermuda, and
ended with Lennie in mid-Novem
ber, which made an eastward track
through the Caribbean that had not
been seen in a storm so late in the
season since record-keeping began
in 1886, Beven said. Floyd was the
strongest, coaxing out at 155 mph
when it was east of the Bahamas,
and later spawned the largest mass
evacuation in U.S. history as it
raked the East Coast. Flooding
brought by its heavy rains produced
the costliest disaster in North Caro-
lina history, estimated at more than
$2 billion.
The earlier Dennis menaced the
Outer Banks of North Carolina for
days as it dawdled off the coast, re
fusing to disappear out to sea. Its
torrential rains set the stage for
Floyd's flooding. And Bret in Au
gust, powering ashore at 150 mph,
was the strongest to make landfall
in the United States this year; its
destination, mercifully, being a big
cattle pasture.
of officials acting with impunity.
I hope my visit has drawn atten
tion to the problems."
The militarization of Chiapas
followed a brief but bloody upris-
ing in January of 1994 by Zapatista
rebels demanding indigenous
tights and land reform to benefit
Maya peasant groups. Violence
has flared ever since between rebel
groups and the army andpro-gov
ernment paramilitaries.
During her Chiapas trip Fri
day, Robinson met survivors of the
December 1997 massacre in
Acteal, where 45 peasants were
slain by paramilitary thugs.
Zedillo launched a new initia
tive to ease Chiapas tensions in
September by proposing a new
mediation board of nonpartisans,
a departure from past demands that
rebels talk directly to the govern
ment. But apart from some pris
oner releases, there has been no
recent progress in the nearly 6-
year-old conflict.
On her trip to Tijuana on
Wednesday, Robinson met human
rights advocates who blame the
U.S crackdown on illegal immi
gration, called Operation
Gatekeeper, for 450 migrant
deaths.
up whether
as a drug
agency does not have jurisdiction.
They argue that giving the FDA the
authority to regulate tobacco as a drug
would lead to a total ban on cigarettes
hurting American smokers and the
econom, and circumventing the will
of Congress.
The companies are not refuting
health issues raised by government
lawyers. Instead, the case turns on the
question of whether Congress ever in
tended the FDA to regulate cigarettes.
In August 1998, a three-judge federal
appeals court panel handed the to
bacco industry a major victory by rul-
dead, 100 missing
150
China ferry fire
Tribune Nees Services
BEIJING --- At least 150 people are
dead and more than 100 arc missing
after a ferry in stormy seas burned and
broke apart off China's northeastern
coast, official news media reported
Friday. Reports said 36 survi \ ors had
been found from the ship. One account
said the vessel had been carrying 312
passengers and crew members. A sec
ond report put the number aboard at
336.
Sixteen-foot waves and freezing
temperatures hampered the rescue el
fort near the port city of Yantai, in the
Shandong province. A helicopter, doz
ens of ships and thousands of soldiers
and residents along the shoreline
joined in the search for survivors,
which occurred one and one halfmiles
offshore, the New China news agency
said.
The ship, which belonged to the
Yanda Ferry Company in Shandong.
left Yantai on Wednesday afternoon,
Nov. 24, for what is normally a seven
to-eight-hour journey 100 miles north
to the city of Dalian. It was forced to
turn back because of the extreme con
ditions, but then around 4:30 p.m.
Wednesday, flames were discovered
on the second deck, and the ship sent
out a distress signal, the news agency
said. The wind and waves prevented
other ships from immediately ap-
proaching.
Some four hours later, apparently
engulfed by fire, the ship began drift
ing. That evening itsupposedly started
to break up, and at least parts of it
sank, according to New China. There
were no foreigners on board, the
China Daily said. A survivor, a 28-
year-old man, told the French news
ing that Congress did not. In that 2- I rul
ing, the U.S. 4th Circuit Court of Appeals
wrote that there was "strong evidence that
Congress has reserved for itself the regu
lation of tobacco products rather than
delegating that regulation to the FDA."
The case went to the Supreme Court
on an appeal by the Clinton administra
tion. It is the most significant tobacco
case before the court since 1992, when,
in a 7-2 ruling, the justices said that a fed
eral law requiring warning labels on ciga
rette packages did not shield the compa
nies from liability lawsuits.
The court, however, also said that law-
agency Agence France-Presse that
around 4 p.m. Wednesday, all the pas
sengers rushed to the upper deck be
cause of heavy smoke from below,
where some 60 cars were making the
trip.
"I decided to jump into the water
because the smoke was so strong it
was hard to breathe," he said, add
inu, that he and five other men had
jumped at once. He lost track of the
others and swam for an hour, he said,
before reaching the shore. Local of
ficials said many bodies had washed
ashore, along with a few people who
were found unconscious but still
alive.
State television showed a beach lit
tered with thousands of oranges,
apples and other apparent wreckage,
decided to jump
into the water be
cause the smoke was
so strong it was hard
to breathe."
-an unnamed
survivor
including what appeared to be at least
three life rafts. According to local
news media, this was the second ac
cident in five weeks for a vessel op
erated by Yanda Ferry Co. In Octo
ber, a ship caught fire and sank near
Dalian, but all but three people were
rescued.
FDA
suits cannot be based on claims that ciga
rette advertising failed to warn of the
dangers of smoking.
In recent years, health advocates have
viewed FDA regulation as the most po
tent weapon against smoking, which is
blamed for 400,000 deaths in America
each year. Activists on both sides will
be watching closely during oral argu
ments scheduled before the high court
Wednesday. A ruling could come in the
spring.
Said Paul Billings, a top lobbyist for
the American Lung Association: "This
is the big tobacco case. The big one."
PAGE 6